ZRating
@Z_rating
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The Rating that has predicted the 8 of the last 9 March Madness Champs. All data from 2015-now
Joined March 2024
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Here it is! UConn with the highest rating of all time and only 17+ rating ever
Note: UNC & Marq. as 1 and 2 seed outside the top 10 (1 or 2 seed outside top 10 has never made Final 4)
If this gets some RTs, I'll release full ratings w/ notes
Drop questions in the comments⬇️
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Here are some notes and facts to help you pick your first round games. I’ll release 2nd round and beyond notes tomorrow if this gets some RTs and likes!
Drop questions below ⬇️
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Early fun fact for tmrw’s 1-68 release: In the past 3 years, when the 11-seed is within 9 Z-rating spots of the 6-seed, the 11-seed is 5-1. Since 2015, when the 6-seed is ranked 40+ in the Z-rating, they are 0-3. One 6-seed is actually ranked 40+ this year.
Here it is! UConn with the highest rating of all time and only 17+ rating ever
Note: UNC & Marq. as 1 and 2 seed outside the top 10 (1 or 2 seed outside top 10 has never made Final 4)
If this gets some RTs, I'll release full ratings w/ notes
Drop questions in the comments⬇️
8
14
31
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1
10
Ever since 2015, I have tracked Pre-Tournament Data to predict the Champion of March Madness. It has predicted 7 of the past 8 winners (exception: 2019). Follow along as I post the top 10 of the Z-Rating for every year since 2015.
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Here are the notes/facts for the 2nd round and beyond. Credit to
@JPascavitz
for the idea on the last main bullet point. Pretty shocking results there honestly.
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Here is how the Z-Rating bracket did. I just picked the higher teams in the rating for every matchup. My personal bracket where I used trends from the Z-Rating and picked based on other notable factors got 1330 points. All in all, another successful March.
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Just calculated all of the 2024 ratings. Gotta say I’m a little shocked. I’ll release them tomorrow
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I’ll be back next CBK season with the same rating to help you pick your brackets. Maybe I’ll try to get the rating going sometime midseason next year to see who would win at a certain point. Thanks for following along if you did and I hope I could help out!
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My favorite upset picks ranked based off of the Z-Rating
1. Oregon over SC
2. NMU over Clemson
3. Drake over Wazzu
4. Nevada over Dayton
5. Samford over KU (McCullar being out could move their Z-Rating into <26 territory, but no way to know)
6. McNeese over Zaga
7. JMU over Wisc
Here are some notes and facts to help you pick your first round games. I’ll release 2nd round and beyond notes tomorrow if this gets some RTs and likes!
Drop questions below ⬇️
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6-seeds ranked 40+ are now 0-4 with South Carolina’s loss to Oregon
Here are some notes and facts to help you pick your first round games. I’ll release 2nd round and beyond notes tomorrow if this gets some RTs and likes!
Drop questions below ⬇️
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Some notes about the rating:
-It values almost every important stat except luck
-It is not a game-by-game predictive value. it is meant to predict the champion using pre-tournament stats and metrics
-Rating could be inflated for mid-majors by the # of seniors in their rotation
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A double digit ranked 2-seed in the Z-Rating has also never made the Final 4…
Fun fact: Not a single
#1
seed that has missed the top 10 in the Z-Rating has made the Final 4. Although, they are 4-for-8 in making the Elite 8, but they are just 1-for-4 in making the Elite 8 the past 4 tournaments (most recent being Duke in 2019). 0-for-3 since 2019.
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Ever since 2015, I have tracked Pre-Tournament Data to predict the Champion of March Madness. It has predicted 7 of the past 8 winners (exception: 2019). Follow along as I post the top 10 of the Z-Rating for every year since 2015.
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A team ranked 4th has never made the Final 4 and has had 4 2nd-round exits in the past 8 years. 2 of those 2nd round-exits coming in 2021 & 2022.
Somewhat good news for Auburn though ⬇️
Aside from the
#1
ranked team,
#4
is the only ranking to never lose in the 1st round.
Here it is! UConn with the highest rating of all time and only 17+ rating ever
Note: UNC & Marq. as 1 and 2 seed outside the top 10 (1 or 2 seed outside top 10 has never made Final 4)
If this gets some RTs, I'll release full ratings w/ notes
Drop questions in the comments⬇️
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14
31
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Those Cinderella Final 4 runs live in the 35-45 range and guess who was there? NC State at 37…
Here are the notes/facts for the 2nd round and beyond. Credit to
@JPascavitz
for the idea on the last main bullet point. Pretty shocking results there honestly.
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Well, I did say Oakland had the best chance of any 14-seed but definitely didn’t expect it to happen. Congrats Oakland!
Here are some notes and facts to help you pick your first round games. I’ll release 2nd round and beyond notes tomorrow if this gets some RTs and likes!
Drop questions below ⬇️
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If Colorado fails to win this morning, then teams that jump 12+ spots from their seed list rank in the Z-Rating will have not made out of the first weekend 59 out of 67 times.
Here are the notes/facts for the 2nd round and beyond. Credit to
@JPascavitz
for the idea on the last main bullet point. Pretty shocking results there honestly.
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This is very interesting. In my rating (predicted last 7 of 8 national champs), it only missed on Virginia in 2019. Good to know it was essentially a fluke. I wonder what the cumulative probability of MSU (who the rating picked to win) winning it that year was.
I finally finished crunching the data on most and least dominant championship runs since 2010.
I kid you not, Virginia's cumulative probability of winning the title in 2019 (using minimum win probability within the last 10 min of each of their 6 wins), rounded to the nearest
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If this can get a few RTs, I will post the 2023 (1-10) ratings tonight and 2015-2023 full ratings (1-68) tomorrow. 2024 Top 10 to also come out tomorrow.
@ryanhammer09
@CBKReport
@TheFieldOf68
@T3Bracketology
@mid_madness
@madeformarch
@trillydonovan
@JBRBracketology
@jorcubsdan
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3 of the Final 4 will be in the top 9. Since 2008, 63% of the Final 4 teams have been in the top 9. Top 9 continues its dominance
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It’s easy to say that I make these ratings up and you can think that, but they aren’t. I’ve been working on going back and getting all pre-tournament data 2008-2014 for the next step in this project. The ratings have been very accurate 08-14 aside from ‘11 and ‘14 w/ UConn.
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I knew UConn would be very good with the first ever 17+ rating, but my goodness they are in a different league compared to everyone else. Will be interesting to see what happens if they get to play Purdue in the title game.
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Good news for Purdue! That dreaded first weekend exit has only happened two times for the
#2
ranked team and both of those happened in 2016 & 2017. The past 4 years,
#2
has made it to the Elite Eight 3/4 times and Sweet Sixteen 4/4 times.
Here it is! UConn with the highest rating of all time and only 17+ rating ever
Note: UNC & Marq. as 1 and 2 seed outside the top 10 (1 or 2 seed outside top 10 has never made Final 4)
If this gets some RTs, I'll release full ratings w/ notes
Drop questions in the comments⬇️
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Something I’ll keep track of in the Final 4 is if UConn wins, would a post-tourney rating of 18+ be possible? I believe so. Just ran the numbers and they are at 17.87 right now. If they can get their ADJOE to 128 and ADJDE to 91 OR efg% to 58, they will eclipse 18.
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Fun fact: Not a single
#1
seed that has missed the top 10 in the Z-Rating has made the Final 4. Although, they are 4-for-8 in making the Elite 8, but they are just 1-for-4 in making the Elite 8 the past 4 tournaments (most recent being Duke in 2019). 0-for-3 since 2019.
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@JHMBasketball
Working on getting these out later today. I’ll give you one now though. Oregon>SC
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4 teams from the top 9 make the Elite 8. Right on par for what the historical data says
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In 2021, Baylor had the highest rating and was the champ. Note: A lot of weird teams ranked high compared to how they performed that year (Colorado, BYU, Tennessee) & 4 out of the top 10 being B1G teams. This is due to SOS being weirdly inflated that year. Odd year...
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In 2023, UConn took the top spot narrowly. Texas's rating is so high because of 6 seniors in their rotation & high TOVM. Kansas with a chance to go back-to-back, but end up in 7th and as a 2nd round exit. 2024 Top 10 to come tomorrow...
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how are auburn & arizona doing now…
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Going into tomorrow’s game, UConn has a rating of 18.01 and Purdue has rating of 17.31. The two highest ratings ever. We are in for a good one tomorrow. Keep in mind, these are not their pre-tourney ratings (the ratings now are just for fun).
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@JPascavitz
@D_V_D
Their tempo was far off the average combined with poor FT% had them end up there. Although, I like them to make a possible run. SMC plays well at any tempo and most top teams in the West play poorly in slow-paced games. If SMC can slow games down, it could bode well for them.
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Teams remaining by rating slot: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 15, 20, 21, 23, 27, and 37. The Top 9 is dominant per usual.
Here are some notes and facts to help you pick your first round games. I’ll release 2nd round and beyond notes tomorrow if this gets some RTs and likes!
Drop questions below ⬇️
2
4
20
1
1
2
Ever since 2015, I have tracked Pre-Tournament Data to predict the Champion of March Madness. It has predicted 7 of the past 8 winners (exception: 2019). Follow along as I post the top 10 of the Z-Rating for every year since 2015.
3
1
8
0
1
2
@TheBETTSHOP
I respect it. Their EFG% scares me (same reason I don’t like Houston or Tennessee). It’s at 51.3%. The lowest champion since 2015 was at 52.3% pre-tournament which just so happened to be UNC. Next lowest was UConn last year at 53.5%.
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I think Mark Pope may actually end up as a really good hire for Kentucky
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Ever since 2015, I have tracked Pre-Tournament Data to predict the Champion of March Madness. It has predicted 7 of the past 8 winners (exception: 2019). Follow along as I post the top 10 of the Z-Rating for every year since 2015.
3
1
8
0
1
1
Here it is! UConn with the highest rating of all time and only 17+ rating ever
Note: UNC & Marq. as 1 and 2 seed outside the top 10 (1 or 2 seed outside top 10 has never made Final 4)
If this gets some RTs, I'll release full ratings w/ notes
Drop questions in the comments⬇️
8
14
31
0
0
1
Ever since 2015, I have tracked Pre-Tournament Data to predict the Champion of March Madness. It has predicted 7 of the past 8 winners (exception: 2019). Follow along as I post the top 10 of the Z-Rating for every year since 2015.
3
1
8
0
1
1
@CBKReport
This rating can help you determine the tournament winner using pre-tournament stats only. Check out my profile for 2015-2022 ratings. It’s accurately predicted 7 of the last 8 winners.
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I think continuity has to mean something in CBB in the transfer portal era. Obviously, there are exceptions to continuity and you can build a great team thru the portal, but most team that overhaul their whole team are usually not great year 1.
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Anyone want to guess which team was and which team wasn’t in the top 9 of the Z-Rating for the UNC-Bama game?
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@ryanhammer09
This rating can help you determine the tournament winner using pre-tournament stats only. Check out my profile for 2015-2022 ratings. It’s accurately predicted 7 of the last 8 winners.
0
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In 2019, MSU took the top spot and made it all the way to the Final Four. Virginia, the eventual champion, finished 7th because of their slow-paced offense, low rebounding numbers and lack of seniors on the team.
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I think Indiana will be solid next year, but where is the spacing in their lineups? Seems like very poor roster construction.
Top transfer Oumar Ballo has committed to Mike Woodson and Indiana!
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2K
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In 2022, ratings were somewhat down on the top end, but that didn't stop Kansas from having the highest rating and winning it all. What's been holding the Zags back from the top spot in all of these is their fast-paced offense and low SOS.
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In 2016, we saw Nova take the spot in the rating. This was due to their FT% and well-balanced game (offense, defense, tempo) that allowed them to adjust to their opponents very well.
0
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Ever since 2015, I have tracked Pre-Tournament Data to predict the Champion of March Madness. It has predicted 7 of the past 8 winners (exception: 2019). Follow along as I post the top 10 of the Z-Rating for every year since 2015.
3
1
8
0
0
1
Ever since 2015, I have tracked Pre-Tournament Data to predict the Champion of March Madness. It has predicted 7 of the past 8 winners (exception: 2019). Follow along as I post the top 10 of the Z-Rating for every year since 2015.
3
1
8
0
0
1
@ryanhammer09
My stat might be a little better. It has predicted many trends that we see now
Ever since 2015, I have tracked Pre-Tournament Data to predict the Champion of March Madness. It has predicted 7 of the past 8 winners (exception: 2019). Follow along as I post the top 10 of the Z-Rating for every year since 2015.
3
1
8
0
1
1
Izzo is beyond frustrating. If he doesn’t land Fidler, MSU can kiss next season goodbye.
Oakland transfer forward Trey Townsend (
@treyt430
), the Horizon League POY, has scheduled the following official visits, his agent
@georgelangberg
of GSL Sports Group confirms to
@On3Sports
:
Arizona - April 16-17
Ohio State - April 18-19
Louisville - April 20-21
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160
1K
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My favorite upset picks ranked based off of the Z-Rating
1. Oregon over SC
2. NMU over Clemson
3. Drake over Wazzu
4. Nevada over Dayton
5. Samford over KU (McCullar being out could move their Z-Rating into <26 territory, but no way to know)
6. McNeese over Zaga
7. JMU over Wisc
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In 2017, UNC took the top spot and was the eventual winner. This is the first time we see a chance for a team to go back-to-back (Nova), but they come up just short in the rating and short in the tournament. Stay tuned for this type of trend w/ previous champs.
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@SethDavisHoops
This rating can help you determine the tournament winner using pre-tournament stats only. Check out my profile for 2015-2022 ratings. It’s accurately predicted 7 of the last 8 winners.
0
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1
If anyone has 02-07 pre-tournament KenPom data and would be willing to share it, send me a DM
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@JPascavitz
Going to look at this deeper for my 2nd round & beyond notes for tonight. In 2023, similar teams like WVU, Memphis, Utah St., Providence, & Oral Roberts all lost in the 1st round. I’m assuming it’s because they do most things averagely and then one thing inflates their rating.
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@golfadx18
We’ll see. Every trend is meant to be broken. I really like Auburn too and will probably take them to the Elite 8
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@CBKReport
This rating can help you determine the tournament winner using pre-tournament stats only. Check out my profile for 2015-2022 ratings. It’s accurately predicted 7 of the last 8 winners.
0
1
1
@JBRBracketology
The
@Z_rating
can help you determine the tournament winner using pre-tournament stats only. Check out my profile for 2015-2022 ratings. It’s accurately predicted 7 of the last 8 winners.
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Font colors:
Green= Champ
Pink= Runner-up
Dark Blue= Final Four
Orange= Elite 8
Light Blue= Sweet 16
Purple= Round of 32
Red= First game lost (RO64 or First Four loss)
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Something to note here: Baylor had a good shot to go back-to-back as well. Finished 4th in the rating and they were a 2nd round exit. An interesting trend… Will have to see where UConn ends up tomorrow
In 2022, ratings were somewhat down on the top end, but that didn't stop Kansas from having the highest rating and winning it all. What's been holding the Zags back from the top spot in all of these is their fast-paced offense and low SOS.
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@jmjets2
Just 2019 w/ UVA finishing at 7
In 2019, MSU took the top spot and made it all the way to the Final Four. Virginia, the eventual champion, finished 7th because of their slow-paced offense, low rebounding numbers and lack of seniors on the team.
0
1
1
0
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1
@SethDavisHoops
This rating can help you determine the tournament winner using pre-tournament stats only. Check out my profile for 2015-2022 ratings. It’s accurately predicted 7 of the last 8 winners.
0
1
1
@ryanhammer09
@CBBAnalytics
Releasing my 2024 Top 10 tonight
Ever since 2015, I have tracked Pre-Tournament Data to predict the Champion of March Madness. It has predicted 7 of the past 8 winners (exception: 2019). Follow along as I post the top 10 of the Z-Rating for every year since 2015.
3
1
8
0
0
1
Ever since 2015, I have tracked Pre-Tournament Data to predict the Champion of March Madness. It has predicted 7 of the past 8 winners (exception: 2019). Follow along as I post the top 10 of the Z-Rating for every year since 2015.
3
1
8
0
0
1
Ever since 2015, I have tracked Pre-Tournament Data to predict the Champion of March Madness. It has predicted 7 of the past 8 winners (exception: 2019). Follow along as I post the top 10 of the Z-Rating for every year since 2015.
3
1
8
0
1
1
In 2018, we see Nova take the top spot and title with the highest rating ever which was exemplified by their dominant run in the tourney (closest game: 12pt differential). UNC with a legit shot to go back-to-back, but finish 3rd in the rating while losing in the 2nd round.
0
1
1
All these big CBB accounts saying certain teams are loading up with talent in the portal and will be good next year is so interesting to me. I know you have to build thru the portal now, but just looking at a roster that has never played together and calling it good is lazy.
1
0
1
Here it is! UConn with the highest rating of all time and only 17+ rating ever
Note: UNC & Marq. as 1 and 2 seed outside the top 10 (1 or 2 seed outside top 10 has never made Final 4)
If this gets some RTs, I'll release full ratings w/ notes
Drop questions in the comments⬇️
8
14
31
0
0
0
Another note: This rating is not the only thing you should use when deciding your champion. There are plenty of other criteria a champion “must” meet.
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@Mountaindrew96
TOVM= Turnover margin
No, an 8th year senior would hold the same exact weight as a 4th year.
0
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