Misusing numbers in a cnn story about asylum: “During the Trump administration, the rate of denial was over 70%, but during the first year of the Biden administration the grant rate grew to nearly 40%.” The 30 point eyeball difference is maybe 10 points!

(The most compelling argument against debt relief, I think, is concern that future borrowers will be reckless in the hopes of another relief bill. But that is presumably a reason the relief cap is fairly low.) /3

…more progressive policy that could have been enacted today instead, or (3) would have to increase the debt in ways that will later on prevent a more progressive policy. None of these things seems true to me. /2

I am not understanding the claim that targeted debt relief is regressive. For this to be regressive, then either (1) this would somehow have to raise taxes now or down the line on ppl making less than the beneficiaries; or (2) would have to displace some other /1

Conservatives should explain why “defunding the police” is an ok strategy against the IRS. And why opposing the collection of taxes doesn’t make them anarchists.

Kindle says I have read for 423 days in a row. Which leads me to ask, what the heck was I doing 424 days ago?????

Today in experimental demand effects: always liked Falk’s paper showing that fundraisers get much higher returns if they include gifts. So when I got a lovely set of gift cards from a charity today…I gave them money. Because I felt I was supposed to.

Friday night: kittens well behaved Saturday night: kittens well behaved Sunday night of long weekend: kittens well behaved Last night (work night): midnight kitten derby time!!!!!!!!!!! Thunder paws!!!!!

Got my wife breakfast in bed. The three cats decided this was a full-contact Olympic sport.

We have two new family members to meet as soon as the storm clears…. Names TBD (Kristin wants to meet them first). Amartya is very excited to be a big brother. Unless he’s excited about feeding time….

One thing about getting up at 3am to catch a flight? I have learned how much it sucks to yawn in a mask.

Me: why is my wife still teasing me about accidentally eating her pastry a few months ago? Also me: Mom, I’m still scarred because we didn’t get to go trick or treating in 1982.

If the Doggett bill became law, allowing localities to expand Medicaid on their own, wouldn’t we expect to see a lot of preemption laws by the states? I suppose there more veto points, and maybe the politics is worse of actively blocking Medicaid?

Biden hasn’t finished his address and cnn has already made its second headline a story about the Vice President’s clothes. Sigh.

See https://t.co/AzCligcfQ8 . Only 13 economics PhDs in US awarded to African Americans in 2017-18?????

You have to love some of the idiosyncratic elements that end up in these giant bills....

Calling the election now is like the difference between joint and individual hypothesis testing. Maybe you think Trump might still pull out NV or AZ or GA or even (somehow) PA, so you fail to reject those nulls. But can he win (almost) all of them at the same time?

#StataBeanieGiveaway marginsplot. I remember doing those “by hand” 13 years ago....

NYTimes has an excellent slideshow on how color choice and design can influence perception of election maps:

I have started teaching Bayes Rule before I get to hypothesis testing, so I can emphasize that Pr(data|null) != Pr(null|data). I assign a problem with a binary set of hypotheses where I hold Pr(data|null)=.05 but vary Pr(null) and Pr(data|alternative) to show how those matter.