Victory Insights
@VictoryPolling
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Providing data-driven insights to political candidates and committees across the nation. Inquiries: [email protected]
Joined June 2011
A new @VictoryPolling survey shows @ByronDonalds far ahead of all other contenders in a hypothetical primary for Florida Governor. 31% - Byron Donalds.4% - Jeanette Nuñez.3% - Wilton Simpson.1% - Francis Suarez. Read the full report: (850 LV, 1/26-27/25)
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#BREAKING: New poll reveals vast majority of FL-1 Republicans still stand with Matt Gaetz. Read & download the entire poll report here: #Florida #Gaetz #GaetzGate @MattGaetz @RepMattGaetz. (THREAD: 1/7)
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FLORIDA POLL: Support for DeSantis’ Presidential Bid Hits Record Low. 59.5% Trump.18.8% DeSantis.7.6% Haley.5.3% Christie.1.3% Ramaswamy.-.2.7% Someone Else.4.8% Undecided. FULL REPORT:
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Don’t trust the candidate-funded polls. Our new poll shows Trump is doing just fine in Iowa, leading DeSantis and the rest of the field by 23%. Even in a head-to-head matchup, Trump leads by more than 16%. Read the report:
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NEW POLL: With @RepAndyBiggsAZ running for Governor, who will succeed him in AZ-5?. Here’s where the potential GOP primary field stands:.32% - Jake Hoffman.22% - Michael Way.19% - Travis Grantham.15% - Justin Olson.12% - Travis Padilla. PRESS RELEASE:
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Florida poll coming next week:. - DeSantis vs. Crist.- Rubio vs. Demings.- Trump vs. DeSantis (R).- Biden vs. …anyone else? (D).- Leaners (NPA).- Abortion.- Inflation.- Hurricane Ian Response.- Generic Congressional Ballot. Stay tuned!.
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We project that Eli Crane will win the Republican nomination for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District. With $2M in contributions and an endorsement from Donald Trump, Crane has a 97% chance of victory. 35% Crane.27% Blackman.22% DeLuzio.16% 4 Others. 📎:
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NEW: @VictoryPolling Florida Statewide Pre-Election Day Survey. 49.7% - Rubio (+4.0%).45.7% - Demings.4.6% - Undecided. 54.1% - DeSantis (+12.7%).41.4% - Crist.4.5% - Undecided. Read the full report here:
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Our company stands by the belief that anyone and everyone should have the right to seek public office. Not just those with power and cash.
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BREAKING: New @VictoryPolling survey projects that Eli Crane will win the Republican nomination for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District. Read here:
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Trump has taken back Florida from DeSantis. Our new poll finds Trump with a 15-point lead over the Florida Governor in the race for the 2024 GOP nomination. Donald Trump is the undisputed frontrunner in Florida once again. Read the full report here:
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Fewer than 19% of FL-1 Republicans believe Gaetz should resign, and even fewer believe he is guilty. Should Matt Gaetz Resign?.19% Yes.72% No.9% Neutral/No Opinion. Do you believe Gaetz is guilty?.18% Yes.63% No.19% Neutral/No Opinion. #GaetzGate #GaetzResign #MattGaetz. (2/7)
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NEW POLL: Byron Donalds leads the GOP field in the 2026 race for Florida Governor!. 20.6% Donalds.12.8% Gaetz.5.0% Waltz.2.9% Patronis.2.1% Simpson.—.14.1% Someone Else.42.5% Undecided. Read the full report:
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NATIONAL POLL: Donald Trump leads Ron DeSantis by 49 points ahead of first GOP debate. 61% Trump.12% DeSantis.6% Christie.4% Ramaswamy.4% Pence.2% Haley.1% Scott.1% Johnson.-.2% Someone Else.8% Undecided. FULL REPORT:
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#BREAKING:. A @VictoryPolling study found that 53% of Texas Republicans support seceding from the United States if the Biden-Harris administration takes office. Read the report: #Secession #Texit #Secede #Texas #TX @WatchChad @HollandCourtney (1/2)
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New survey shows @RonDeSantisFL leading @realDonaldTrump in Florida for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. OVERALL:.47% DeSantis (+10.8%).37% Trump.16% Undecided. WITH LEANERS:.55% DeSantis (+11.0%).45% Trump. Read the full report:
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Just as we predicted, Eli Crane has won the Republican nomination for AZ-02. Our polling models gave him a 97% chance of victory, and he pulled it off in stellar fashion. Congrats, @EliCraneAZ!
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NEW FLORIDA POLL by @VictoryPolling:. President:.47% Trump (+2).45% Harris. US Senate:.45% Scott (+1).44% Mucarsel-Powell. Amendment 3:.54% In Favor (+25).29% Against. Amendment 4:.50% In Favor (+21).29% Against. 600 LV, 9/22-25/2024. FULL REPORT:
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Despite R+3.3 turnout in Duval County, the Democratic candidate won by nearly 4%. Takeaways:. 1. In a purple area, it’s not enough to just get members of your party to vote. You also must win over NPAs/others. 2. Candidate quality truly matters (on both sides).
Tracking turnout in Duval County? We are, too!. View our live turnout numbers and predictions here: Our 3:40 PM numbers suggest that around 7,500 more Republicans than Democrats will cast a vote in this closely-watched election. That's an R+3.77 margin.
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#BREAKING (THREAD):. More than 1 in 3 Republican voters in North Carolina support seceding from the US if Biden takes power. Full report: (1/4) @CPAC @BillStepien @mschlapp @JasonMillerinDC @victoriafromDTX. #Election2020 #NorthCarolina #NC #Secession
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How have things changed over time in the Sunshine State?. 11/2022: DeSantis +10.9.04/2023: Trump +14.8.05/2023: DeSantis +1.2
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After DeSantis’s 2024 campaign announcement last week, he’s rallied back to a statistical tie against Donald Trump within the state of Florida. Our new poll finds the two frontrunners tied with ~38% of the vote each. Read the full report here:
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Tracking turnout in Duval County? We are, too!. View our live turnout numbers and predictions here: Our 3:40 PM numbers suggest that around 7,500 more Republicans than Democrats will cast a vote in this closely-watched election. That's an R+3.77 margin.
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Our recent poll showed Trump and DeSantis in a dead heat in Florida for the Republican nomination. @FloridaGOP Chairman @ChrisMZiegler will be joining us on Tuesday for a data-driven Twitter Space conversation about the race. You don’t want to miss this!
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Trump is the undisputed 2024 frontrunner in Iowa. Our new poll finds Trump with a 30-point lead over DeSantis, Haley, and all other candidates. In a head-to-head matchup against DeSantis, Trump wins by 19 points. Read the full report here:
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Tomorrow morning, we’ll be releasing poll results investigating whether Ken Paxton has a shot to defeat incumbent US Senator John Cornyn in 2026. Stay tuned.
🚨 BREAKING: At @TPUSA AmFest, Texas AG Ken Paxton @KenPaxtonTX suggests he’ll primary John Cornyn in 2026
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TEXAS POLL: Ken Paxton leads John Cornyn for US Senate in 2026. 41.6% - @KenPaxtonTX .33.8% - @JohnCornyn .24.6% - Undecided. Poll Report:
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NEW POLL: Less than 50% of Iowa Republicans Support Joni Ernst for US Senate in 2026. More data:.- 73% want Hegseth confirmed.- 63% want Ukraine funding halted.- 53% think Ernst should be replaced if she votes against Trump appointees. Read the report:
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🚨 NEW POLL ALERT! 🚨. Tomorrow morning, we’ll be releasing the results of a new poll regarding the 2024 GOP presidential race in Iowa. 450 likely caucus participants. Maximum MoE of 4.9%. Conducted June 3-6. Stay tuned!.
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FINAL 2024 ARIZONA POLL.(November 2-3, 2024). Presidential Ballot:.49.2% Trump (+0.8%).48.4% Harris.2.3% Other. Full Press Release:
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Even among those who think Gaetz should resign, he has one silver lining. More than 85% of those who think he should resign believe that he is guilty of sex trafficking. So, if Gaetz can prove his innocence, he might be able to recover much of that support. #GaetzGate. (3/7)
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If Trump opts not to run in 2024, our poll yielded the following results for the New Hampshire primary:. 25% - DeSantis.20% - Pence.12% - Cruz.11% - Romney.7% - Haley.4% - Pompeo.1% - Noem.—.11% - Someone Else.9% - Undecided. #Polls #Elections #NHPolitics #DeSantis #FITN. (4/7)
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NORTH CAROLINA POLL: Lara Trump, Thom Tillis, or Roy Cooper for US Senate in 2026?. Republican Primary:.65% - Lara Trump.11% - Thom Tillis.24% - Undecided. Both Trump and Tillis trail Cooper by ~1 point in hypothetical general election matchups. REPORT:
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If Trump opts not to run, @RonDeSantisFL takes a narrow lead, followed closely by @Mike_Pence. In this case, our simulations give DeSantis a 57% win rate, followed by Pence at 36% and @TedCruz at 7%. But there's more to the story. #Politics #IA #GOP #Polls (3/8)
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North Carolina Poll.(Sample Size: 600, MoE: 4%). President of the United States:.48.5% Trump.44.9% Harris.6.6% Undecided. Governor of North Carolina:.46.9% Stein.41.7% Robinson.11.4% Undecided. POLL REPORT:
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#BREAKING: New poll reveals Ron DeSantis leads Democratic challengers Charlie Crist, Val Demings, and Nikki Fried in the 2022 Florida Governor race. @CharlieCrist holds the lead among Dems. Read the report here: (THREAD: 1/9). #Florida #DeSantis #Crist
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🚨 #RaceCall in the Ohio-11 Special Election:. @ShontelMBrown defeats @NinaTurner in the Democratic Primary!. Major loss for Nina Turner and the progressive wing of @TheDemocrats. Could be a sign of things to come in the 2022 midterms…. 🗳 #Ohio11 #Ohio
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NAPLES, FL — Incumbent Mayor Teresa Heitmann statistically tied with Ted Blankenship in our first poll of the race for Naples Mayor. 24.1% Heitmann (@MayorHeitmann).23.8% Blankenship (@TBlankenshipFL).10.9% Price (@naplesbeach).41.1% Undecided. REPORT:
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Whether a voter believes Matt Gaetz is guilty is an excellent predictor of whether they think he should resign. But surprisingly, 7% of FL-1 Republicans who believe Gaetz is guilty do not even think he should resign. #GaetzGate #Gaetz #Florida. (4/7)
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NEW POLL: Trump retakes Florida, leads DeSantis by 36 points in the Sunshine State. 59% Trump.23% DeSantis.4% Christie.3% Ramaswamy.2% Haley.1% Pence.1% Scott.1% Someone Else.7% Undecided. 590 likely FL GOP voters, Aug. 21-23. FULL REPORT:
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New statewide Florida GOP presidential poll coming Monday!. Turn on post notifications to be the first to know! 🔔.
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9:00 AM ET today. Arizona.New Mexico.Florida. Stay tuned.
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Special election coming soon….And poll results coming even sooner!. Stay tuned.
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5:10 PM UPDATE:. Expected margin (votes): R+8093.Expected margin (pct.): R+3.88.Expected turnout (votes): 208,640. Expected share of turnout:.45.6% Republican.41.7% Democratic.11.5% NPA.1.2% Other.
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Long story short: Matt Gaetz’s base has not yet abandoned him. But if he does resign, the race to replace him could get interesting. Access the full poll report here: #GaetzGate #Gaetz #Florida @MattGaetz @RepMattGaetz . (7/7)
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🚨 Next Public Poll: FLORIDA!. Trump vs. Harris. Scott vs. Mucarsel-Powell. Favorability numbers on all candidates plus DeSantis. Results coming later this week.
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Amendment 3 would legalize recreational marijuana in the state of Florida. It needs 60% support to pass. Our latest numbers:.55.7% In Favor.44.3% Against. Support for Amendment 3 falls just short of 60%, but within the margin of error. Press Release:
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#BREAKING: Austin’s Prop B has passed!. The city measure, which would ban homeless encampments within city limits, has drawn attention from figures like @GovAbbott and @BetoORourke. After a heated battle, @SaveAustinNow and their allies have emerged victorious. #PropB #Austin
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This is embarrassingly incorrect. No serious pollsters have Crist remotely close to a 13% lead over DeSantis.
BREAKING NEWS: The re-election chances of Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis are put in serious jeopardy as a new poll of Florida voters finds that he is losing to Democratic challenger Charlie Crist by a whopping 13%. RT IF YOU HOPE THAT RON DESANTIS LOSES IN NOVEMBER!.
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🚨 NEW POLL ALERT 🚨. Tomorrow (Monday, December 2nd) we will release the results of our most recent poll of North Carolina voters. With rumors swirling of a primary challenge to Thom Tillis, our poll investigates whether Lara Trump would be a strategic replacement. Stay tuned!.
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Republicans in North Carolina overwhelmingly believe (75%) that voter fraud helped @JoeBiden get elected. The vast majority (74%) also believe that @realDonaldTrump should continue litigating instead of conceding. Clearly, the #StopTheSteal movement is catching on. (3/4). #NC
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Former President Trump speaks about our recent Florida poll ⬇️.
TRUMP: I guess Ron DeSantis is not quite as popular in Florida as people thought!
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Do you think Biden's sanctions against Russia were a strong enough punishment for invading Ukraine?. If you said no, 63% of Americans agree with you. Source: #Ukraine #UkraineInvasion #UkraineRussia #UkraineUnderAttack #UkraineRussiaConflict
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- Nearly 80% of #Republicans in #TX support Trump’s litigation efforts. - More than 82% believe #VoterFraud played a role in @JoeBiden’s victory. - Only 1 in 3 oppose #Secession/#Texit. - Press: press@victory-insights.com. - Read the report here: (2/2).
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#BREAKING: Raphael Warnock retakes the lead!. Regular:.Perdue (R-Inc.): 50.0% (-1.4%).Ossoff (D): 50.0% (+1.4%). Special:.Warnock (D): 50.4% (+1.3%).Loeffler (R): 49.6% (+1.3%). Looking good for @TheDemocrats, but 5% of votes remain. #ElectionTwitter #GASen #Georgia #ElectionDay.
#UPDATE: 90% of #GeorgiaRunoff votes have been counted!. Regular:.Perdue (R-Inc.): 51.4% (+0.2%).Ossoff (D): 48.6% (-0.2%). Special:.Loeffler (R): 50.9% (+0.1%).Warnock (D): 49.1% (-0.1%). Still too close to call. #ElectionTwitter #GASen #Georgia #ElectionDay #GA.
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#THREAD: @VictoryPolling has conducted a poll covering the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus. Read on for new insights into:.- Trump's viability.- DeSantis's strengths.- Pence's midwestern base. Access the full report here: #Polls #Politics #Iowa.THREAD: (1/8)
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But what happens if Matt Gaetz resigns?. The election to fill his seat could possibly attract some of the heavy-hitters of the Florida political scene. Our polling indicates that state senator @DougBroxson is an early favorite in the race. #GaetzGate #Gaetz #FL1. (5/7)
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Watch Victory Insights' @_BenGalbraith discuss @VictoryPolling results showing a narrow majority of Republicans open to #secession in Southwest Florida. Read the poll report here: Check out @NBC2's full story here: #Florida #Texit
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Full Ballot:.44% Trump.21% DeSantis.6% Scott.5% Pence.5% Haley.3% Christie.2% Ramaswamy.3% Someone Else.12% Undecided. Head-to-Head:.49% Trump.32% DeSantis.19% Undecided.
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Here’s how these new voters voted in 2024:. PRESIDENT:.Harris (D) +2.1%. GOVERNOR:.Stein (D) +20.1%. LG:.Hunt (D) +10.6%. AG:.Jackson (D) +7.5%. These new voters lean Democratic by 4.0%, which means Donald Trump was the only GOP candidate to outperform that disadvantage.
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@RaheemKassam To directly access our poll (which this article is about), visit: or check out:.
#BREAKING: New poll reveals vast majority of FL-1 Republicans still stand with Matt Gaetz. Read & download the entire poll report here: #Florida #Gaetz #GaetzGate @MattGaetz @RepMattGaetz. (THREAD: 1/7)
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TOMORROW @ 8:00 AM EST. @VictoryPolling is releasing our first national Republican primary poll of the 2024 cycle!. Here’s what you can expect:. Full Republican primary ballot, including the following options:.- Christie (@ChrisChristie).- DeSantis (@RonDeSantis).- Haley.
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FINAL FL 2024 US SENATE POLL.November 1-2, 2024 via @VictoryPolling. 51.1% Scott.46.6% Mucarsel-Powell.2.4% Other. Rick Scott’s 4.5-point lead over Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is approximately on par with Trump’s lead over Harris. Read the full press release:
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Donald Trump has won Iowa — bigly. The first contest of the 2024 Republican primary election cycle is a landslide victory for Trump.
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Only 40% of #NorthCarolina Republicans oppose seceding if Biden takes office - that means that 60% are at least open to the idea. In fact, 36% directly support seceding from the US if Biden takes power. (2/4). #Election2020 #Secession #NC
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#BREAKING: Final results from Orland Park:. 51.9% Pekau (@MayorPekau).48.1% McLaughlin (@OrlandMayorDan). Our polling indicated that it would be an extremely tight race, slightly favoring Pekau. That’s precisely what happened. #OrlandPark #Illinois #Elections2021. (THREAD: 1/2)
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In our latest Arizona poll…. Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by 1%. Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake by 3%. Could we be looking at a split ticket in Arizona?
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@fluffyglof @Politics_Polls 55.5% DeSantis.44.5% Trump. It adds up to 100%, but when rounded, looks like 101%. We get this question a lot 🤝.
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Republican primary research packet coming tomorrow. Topics: Disney, Lake Nona, abortion ban, 2024 election, and more!.
Special election coming soon….And poll results coming even sooner!. Stay tuned.
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With the right tools, anyone can run for office, not just those already in power.
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Our recent Florida poll results were first revealed yesterday at Pathway To Victory 2024, our invite-only GOP summit in Naples, Florida. The inaugural event was headlined by North Carolina gubernatorial frontrunner @MarkRobinsonNC. Big things coming in 2024!
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FINAL 2024 FLORIDA POLL.(November 1-2, 2024). Presidential Ballot:.51.2% Trump (+4.3%).46.9% Harris.1.9% Other. Full Press Release:
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7,067 more Republicans than Democrats voted in the Jacksonville Mayoral race. The Democratic candidate still won. What went wrong?. Read our analysis. ⬇️.
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Congratulations to @VictoryPolling clients James Scherer, Elizabeth McFarland, and Cody Hirt for sweeping all three School Board spots in Georgetown, TX. Once they take office, @VictoryPolling will have 5 clients in office in Georgetown alone. 👀. Data-driven insights win races.
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🚨 RACE CALL! 🚨. We’ve seen enough. Trump-endorsed Daniel Cameron has won the Republican Primary for Kentucky Governor. Congratulations @DanielCameronAG!.
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Rep. Fred Hawkins (R) will soon step down, and a special election will be held to replace him in FL HD-35. Our new poll reveals that HD-35’s GOP voters are:.- Split on Trump/DeSantis.- Unconcerned about Lake Nona.- In support of 6-week abortion ban. READ:
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North Carolina had the nation’s strangest election outcome — Donald Trump won handily, but every other major statewide Republican candidate lost. Why? It could have something to do with the 1M+ new voters who have registered in NC since 2020. NEW POLL:
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RACE CALL: Mark Robinson wins the Republican Primary for Governor of North Carolina!. @markrobinsonNC will face Democrat Josh Stein in November in the nation’s most hotly-contested gubernatorial race in 2024. #ElectionDay #NorthCarolina
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North Carolina poll coming later this week!. Trump vs. Harris. Robinson vs. Stein. Stay tuned!.
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In the race for Florida Governor, @GovRonDeSantis beats any of his potential opponents, our poll finds:. @CharlieCrist:.47.0% Crist.53.0% DeSantis. @NikkiFried:.46.7% Fried.53.3% DeSantis. @RepValDemings:.45.8% Demings.54.2% DeSantis. (5/9) #FL #DeSantis
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Releasing on Monday, November 4th:. ARIZONA POLL.Conducted Nov. 2-3.- President.- US Senate. NEW MEXICO POLL.Conducted Nov. 1-2.- President.- US Senate. FLORIDA POLL.Conducted Nov. 1-2.- President.- US Senate.- Amendments 3 & 4. Stay tuned!.
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Mayor Fouts' attempt to regain ballot access is not only strange, it's out of touch with what Warren voters want. Fouts' popularity has declined rapidly over the last few months, and we have the polling data to prove it.
In a bizarre turn of events, Warren Mayor Jim Fouts is again seemingly making an attempt to try and avoid leaving office. Attnys allegedly representing the Mayor allude to the fact that Fouts will file a civil rights lawsuit in an effort to seek an unprecedented 5th term.
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Donald Trump is outperforming Mark Robinson by 9.0% in North Carolina, per the latest @VictoryPolling data. Full Report:
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NEW POLL: Garret Graves and Julia Letlow are statistically tied in Letlow’s own district. If Graves decides to run against Letlow, expect a heated battle between the two Louisiana Republicans. Read our in-depth poll report and analysis here:.
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⚠️ ELECTION PREDICTION: FL-10. We are projecting that @CBWimbish will win the Republican Primary for Florida’s 10th Congressional District after polling shows he likely won both early AND Election Day voters. Read the report:
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#BREAKING: Sen. David Perdue leads challenger Jon Ossoff by just 1,208 votes, but the race remains too close to call. Remaining votes are expected to favor @Ossoff, so @SenDavidPerdue's lead is in serious jeopardy. #Georgia #GASen #ElectionTwitter #Ossoff #Perdue #GASenateRaces
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JUST ANNOUNCED: Tomorrow morning, we’ll be hosting a Space to discuss the results of our soon-to-be-released FL GOP primary poll & tonight’s debate. @JacobOgles from Florida Politics will be joining @_BenGalbraith and @MHurleyOfficial. See you at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow!
TOMORROW (8/24/23) at 8:30 AM ET. X SPACE: New Florida Poll and Republican Debate Discussion. Speakers:.- @jacobogles.- @_BenGalbraith.- @mhurleyofficial. You won’t want to miss it. Schedule a reminder today!.
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Our statewide Florida poll will be released at 5pm eastern time today. Conducted: 10/30/22 - 11/1/22.Sample Size: 500.Party Breakdown: 43R/38D/19N. US Senate, Governor, Generic Ballot, Hurricane Response, Abortion, Inflation, Party ID, Trump v. DeSantis, Biden v. Other, NPA Lean.
Florida poll coming next week:. - DeSantis vs. Crist.- Rubio vs. Demings.- Trump vs. DeSantis (R).- Biden vs. …anyone else? (D).- Leaners (NPA).- Abortion.- Inflation.- Hurricane Ian Response.- Generic Congressional Ballot. Stay tuned!.
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Those who think Matt Gaetz should resign rally largely behind @CrisDosev, who ran against Gaetz in the Republican primary in both 2016 and 2018. Dosev has been an outspoken critic of Gaetz. Doug Broxson performs well among all groups due to his high name ID. #GaetzGate. (6/7)
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The alleged #GaetzGate scandal has dominated headlines for the past week. But what do Gaetz’s voters think of all this? Is he guilty? Should he resign?. And if he does resign, who’s favored to fill his spot?. New poll from @VictoryPolling coming soon. Stay tuned!.
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Donald Trump won in a landslide. Are Democrats handling it well?. Let the data answer that:.- 35% think election fraud helped Trump.- 1 in 7 support SECEDING from US if Trump takes office.- 36% say election was rigged for Trump. Read our new poll report:
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POLLING MEMO: Donald Trump leads Nikki Haley by 40 points in South Dakota as all other candidates hold single-digit support. PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT:.52.0% Trump.12.3% Haley.8.5% DeSantis.7.1% Christie.3.3% Ramaswamy.16.9% Undecided. MEMO:
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After 1 million simulations, @VictoryPolling predicts these chances of winning the 2024 Iowa Caucus if Trump doesn't run AND the field narrows to three:. - 54% - Ron DeSantis.- 29% - Mike Pence.- 17% - Ted Cruz. Access the full report here: #Iowa (8/8)
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Putting and polling: two things where accuracy and precision are of the utmost importance. Proud to be supporting the @CollierGOP at their inaugural Oakes Farms Classic!
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