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@MacroMicroMe

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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
8 hours
🚀 We're thrilled to announce the launch of our website on Product Hunt! 🎉 From May 16th to 19th, we invite you to cast your vote & share your feedback on Product Hunt. (Exclusive offer awaits)🌍 👇👇 Click Here to Vote & Leave a Comment👇👇 #ProductHunt
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
1 year
🚨 #India has surpassed #China as the world’s most populous nation, according to @UN data. Check out this world #population bar chart race animation (using @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h data visualization tool). 🇮🇳 India population - 1,428.6 million 🇨🇳China population - 1,425.7 million
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇺🇸 #Fed 's research: US excess savings have been fully depleted, taking a different path than other countries with a rapid increase peaking in 2021Q3 and a quick decrease. Meanwhile, in other advanced foreign economies, the average stock of excess savings will sustain aggregate
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
✈️The number of global flights has surpassed pre-pandemic levels. (Source: Flightradar24) 📍More Details:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
9 months
🌎22.7% of central banks, mostly in emerging markets like Vietnam 🇻🇳, Sri Lanka 🇱🇰, Brazil 🇧🇷, and Chile 🇨🇱, are cutting rates, indicating we're near the end of the global tightening cycle since 2021. #MM 📍More Info:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
5 months
🇺🇸The U.S. employment diffusion index dropped to 57.8 in November, reaching a new low in over three years. This signifies a decrease in the number of industries experiencing positive job growth. #NFP #MM
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇨🇳China's Economic Surprise Index hits lowest since Oct 2021, pointing to a weaker than expected recovery. 📍More Info:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
8 months
🇯🇵Japan's current account balance reached a record high of 2.77 trillion yen in July. 📈 #mm
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
1 year
🇺🇸🚨 Breaking: After US CPI print (headline 4.9%, core 5.5%, both slightly below consensus), the possibility of another rate hike during the June #FOMC meeting is less than 10%. Meanwhile, the market is pricing in a +90% of rate cut at 2023 year end.
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
9 months
🇪🇺Euro Area's economic sentiment hits a new low at 93.3, the lowest since Nov 2020. Manufacturers (-10.3 vs -9.3), services (3.9 vs 5.4), retailers (-5.0 vs -4.5), constructors (-5.2 vs -3.6), and consumers (-16.0 vs -15.1) all experience declining morale. 📍More Info:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇨🇳China's May economic data falls below expectations, prompting the #PBOC to cut MLF rates by 0.1%! May 📉Retail Sales YoY 12.7% (est. 13.6%, prev. 18.4%) 📉Industrial Production YoY 3.5% (est. 3.6%, prev. 5.6%) ➖Unemployment Rate 5.2% (est. 5.2%, prev. 5.2%) Jan-May 📉Fixed
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇺🇸US bankruptcy filings have reached crisis level, according to Bloomberg BCY data. By the way, we used #ChatGPT Code Interpreter to create this chart, which we used for data cleaning, pivot analysis, and charting. #MM
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🚨Breaking News! 🇺🇸US 10y2y yield curve reaches its deepest inversion in 42 years! The spread between 10y2y US Treasury note yields widened to -110.8 bp, the widest since 1981. This inversion surpasses the March levels during the banking crisis. 📊Data:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🚨🇰🇷 #Samsung 's Q2 operating profit drops 96% YoY! Samsung, the world's largest memory chip and smartphone maker, reported a huge 96% YoY drop📉 in its Q2 operating profit. The company's estimated profit for April to June fell to 600 billion won ($458 million), down from 14.1
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇺🇸 #Fed 's balance sheet hits lowest level since August 2021, falling $22.4 billion to $8.27 trillion this week 📉 📍 📊Fed lending outstanding fell 📉 to $265.1B from $267.4B previously. 1) Discount window lending fell📉 to $2.6B from $2.7B. 2) Foreign
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🚨Deflation in China🇨🇳: China's Consumer Price Index ( #CPI ) year-on-year growth rate in June dropped to 0% (prev. 0.2%), and Producer Price Index ( #PPI ) year-on-year growth rate dropped to -5.4% (prev. -4.6%).📉 📍More Info:
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MacroMicro
9 months
🚨 #BofA Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) Broad measure of #FMS sentiment, based on cash positions, #equity allocation, and #economic growth expectations, has largely improved and is now at the least #bearish level since Feb’22.
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸US ISM PMI for June has dropped to 46.0, marking the lowest level since May 2020! 📉PMI 46.0 (est. 47.0, prev. 46.9) 📉Production 46.7 (prev. 51.1) 📈Orders 45.6 (prev. 42.6) 📉Employment 48.1 (prev. 51.4) 📉Customers’ inventories 46.2 (prev. 51.4) 📉Prices 41.8 (prev. 44.2)
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🚨Taiwan's export orders continue to decline for the 10th straight month with a 25% drop in June, mainly due to weak demand & inventory adjustments. Electronic products (including #semiconductors ) hit hard with a YoY decline of -22% (prev. -16.6%). 📍More Info:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
9 months
🚨Deflation in China🇨🇳! China's Consumer Price Index ( #CPI ) year-on-year growth rate in June dropped to -0.3% (prev. 0%), and Producer Price Index ( #PPI ) year-on-year growth rate dropped to -4.4% (prev. -5.4%).📉 📍More Info:
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MacroMicro
10 months
🇺🇸Upcoming release of US Headline #CPI is expected to tumble to 3.1% YoY in June from 4.0%. However, the latter half of the year is full of uncertainty, as inflation's annual growth rate trend will reverse if inflation continues to grow at a pace of over 0.2% MoM.
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
9 months
🇺🇸🚨One of the most important economic leading indicators, Heavy Weight Trucks Sales, reached a historic high in July, indicating that the US economy is still strong—at least for now. 📍More Info:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
📈 South Korea & Taiwan's semiconductor inventory-to-shipment ratios hit new highs in April, reflecting ongoing weak demand for semiconductors. 📍Data:
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MacroMicro
5 months
🎄✨Happy early Christmas! Hope everything has been well in the last month of 2023. For the upcoming Christmas, we would like to send out two gifts – a free Prime trial along with the PDF file for 2024 Economic Outlook, all for FREE. 👇👇👇
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MacroMicro
10 months
Breaking News! 🚨 #Wheat futures price surges by 9% on reports that Russia will treat ships heading to Ukraine as potentially carrying arms.
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸US CNN Fear and Greed Index has returned to 'extreme greed' territory. 📊More Info:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇯🇵Japan's Tokyo core CPI YoY rose to 4.0% in July, the highest since 1982. CPI 3.2% (est. 2.8%, prev.3.2%) Core CPI (excl. energy and food) 4.0% (prev. 3.8%) ⚠️Nikkei Asia: #BOJ to discuss YCC tweak to allow rates over 0.5% (keep current cap while taking flexible approach)
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
4 months
🇰🇷 One of the global economic leading indicators, South Korea's exports, surged to $54.8 billion in January 2024, marking an 18% year-on-year increase, the strongest in 20 months. This surge, primarily driven by a 56.2% jump 🚀 in semiconductor sales, exceeded expectations and
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇪🇺€476.8 billion of TLTRO loans are due on June 28, which is expected to accelerate the decline in the European Central Bank's balance sheet reduction pace. ECB has shrunk its balance sheet by €1.1tn, while the Federal Reserve reduced by $0.6tn. #ECB 👉
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🚨🇪🇺 Based on ECB (2019) model, we calculated Eurozone's recession probability based on real money supply and term spread. With real M1 YoY down to -12.5% in May and German yield curve at its most inverted since '92, the chance of a recession in the next 12 months has skyrocketed
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
📈Taiwan's export orders in May showed a year-on-year increase of -17.6% (previously -18.1%), indicating a continued decline but no further deterioration. Orders for electronic products slightly improved to -16.6% (compared to -21.9% previously). #MM 📍Data:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
9 months
🚨🇪🇺 Based on ECB (2019) model, we calculated Eurozone's recession probability based on real money supply and term spread. With real M1 YoY down to -14.5% in July and yield curve near its most inverted since '92, the probability of a recession in the next 12 months has
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸US Initial jobless claims has increased by 43.4% from its 3-year low point. Continuing jobless claims also increased by 36.3% from its 3-year low point. 🚨 #Recessions always followed whenever this data has reached this level. 📊How to make this chart:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🌎ChatGPT's Momentum Slows: ChatGPT's website traffic showed impressive growth in early 2023: 131.6%, 62.5%, and 55.8% for Jan, Feb, and Mar. However, growth slowed significantly in Apr to 12.6% and further dropped to 2.8% in May. By Jun 24, visitor count was 27% less 📉than
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
1 year
🇨🇳China's weak PMI data released today raises concerns for global manufacturing recovery prospects. China Credit Impulse has historically led the global manufacturing cycle by 6-12 months. Maybe this time is different? 📊Draw your own conclusion by using the 'Lead/Lag' function
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇺🇸Nearly 90% of yield curves are now inverted, hitting a new high since 2000! 📈 Inverted yield curves often find resolution when the #Fed steps in and cuts interest rates. 📊Data:
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MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸US non-farm payrolls growth remains strong, but credit survey data suggests a sustained decline in employment may be on the horizon. Will this time be different? 📍How to make this chart:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇪🇺🚨Eurozone data for July looks awful, but if historical patterns hold, the significant drop in M1 suggests that PMI data will deteriorate further. #MM 📍How to make this chart:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸Due to resilient consumer spending, J.P. Morgan predicts that the excess savings accumulated in the United States after the pandemic will be depleted by October of this year.
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇺🇸US bankruptcy filings are increasing 🚀despite unexpectedly calm financial stress, according to monthly data from Bloomberg's BCY function. Perhaps financial stress index provides a more accurate reflection of the current market situation, and the surge in bankruptcy filings is
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MacroMicro
21 days
⚠️Tokyo's inflation dropped to 1.8% from 2.6%, far below the expected 2.6%. Excluding food and energy, it slowed to 1.8% from 2.9%, the lowest since Sep 2022. Tokyo's data often predicts national trends, with Japan's CPI due in three weeks. Despite the $JPY's weakness, the #BOJ
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
9 months
🚨🇨🇳China's exports plunge 14.5% YoY, hitting the sharpest decline since Feb 2020 (June: -12.4%). The figures fall short of the expected 12.5% drop, indicating a global demand slowdown. 📍More Info:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
5 months
🇨🇳China’s deflation issue intensifies⚠️: November 2023 saw a 0.5% YoY drop in CPI, surpassing the previous month’s 0.2% fall and defying market expectations of a 0.1% decrease. This marks the sharpest decline in consumer prices since November 2020. #MM
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
9 months
🇺🇸 @sffed : Excess savings are all gone. Recent revisions by BEA reveal lower household disposable income and higher personal consumption in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. Accumulated excess savings, estimated at $2.1 trillion by Aug 2021 (peak), have now dipped below pre-pandemic trend.
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
6 months
⚠️Breaking! 🇨🇳China's CPI inflation fell to -0.2% in Oct from 0%, returning to #deflation territory. PPI inflation decreased to -2.6% from -2.5%. #MM
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇯🇵🚨 #BOJ offers to purchase 10-year JGBs at 1% every business day through fixed-rate operations, unless no bids are submitted. ⚠️10-year JGB yield surges to 0.57%!
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
1 year
🇺🇸 #Fed 's balance sheet decreased by $50.4B this week, representing a total decline 📉of $347.9B since the Banking Crisis in March.  📍 📊Fed lending outstanding #decreased 📉 to 285.7 from $288.7B previously. 1) Discount window lending fell 📉 to $3.97
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇺🇸 US June #CPI inflation Lower Than Expected! Year-over-year growth: 📉CPI 3.0% (est. 3.1%, prev. 4.0%) 📉Core CPI 4.8% (est. 5.0%, prev. 5.3%) Month-over-month growth: 📉CPI 0.2% (est. 0.3%, prev. 0.1%) 📉Core CPI 0.2% (est. 0.3%, prev. 0.4%) 📊More Details:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
9 months
🇺🇸 US July #CPI inflation Lower Than Expected! Year-over-year growth: 📈CPI 3.2% (est. 3.3%, prev. 3.0%) 📉Core CPI 4.7% (est. 4.8%, prev. 4.8%) Month-over-month growth: ➖CPI 0.2% (est. 0.2%, prev. 0.2%) ➖Core CPI 0.2% (est. 0.2%, prev. 0.2%) 📊More Details:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
1 year
🚨🇪🇺Based on ECB (2019) model, we calculated #Eurozone recession probabilities using real money supply and term spread. With real M1 YoY dropping to -12% in April, the probability of a recession in the next 12 months has surged to over 95%.
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
20 days
⚠️Breaking ! 🇯🇵USD/JPY plunges rapidly! Has the Japanese government intervened in the foreign exchange market? #MM
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇨🇳China's GDP deflator YTD growth dropped to -0.62% in 1H 2023, hitting its lowest point since 2009. ⚠️This indicates a rising risk of #deflation in China and suggests that China's nominal GDP is lower than its real GDP. 👉Full Article:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
6 months
⏰Unleash MacroMicro's #BlackFriday gift package! Redeem MM Prime for 30 days with code "HOLIDAY30D" to access the 2024 Economic Outlook reports and enjoy a lifelong 30% discount on MM Prime and more! Don't miss out on this limited-time offer! #MM
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
8 months
🇯🇵Japan's 10-year OIS breaks through 1.0% for the first time since January this year, while the 10-year government bond yield approaches the 0.8% level. #MM #BOJ #MOF
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸 @WellsFargo : Consumer Enters Stall Speed “We estimate households have a little over $500B in excess savings remaining, which amounts to about seven months of spending power based on the prior six-month rate of drawdown.”
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸Banks' lending standard is a leading indicator of credit conditions, according to #Fed 's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey ( #SLOOS ). What is SLOOS and how to use it to monitor the credit market? 👉Full article:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸Nonfarm payrolls have shown strong growth recently, but history suggests that they typically decline 12 months after the 10y and 3m yield curve inversion. Will this time be any different? #NFP
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸US ISM Services Prices Index leads core inflation by about 6 months. With slowing service demand, service inflation is expected to decline 📉 in the coming months. 📊 How to make this chart:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
1 year
🛢️ #WTI #Crude #Oil experienced a #FlashCrash today, plummeting below $64, lowest intra-day level since 2021 Nov. The price rout reflects market's growing concerns on U.S. economy / banking sectors, as #Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned economic growth is cooling and credit
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MacroMicro
1 year
🇺🇸US Q1 GDP lower than expected!🚨 GDP 1.1% (est. 1.9%, prev. 2.6%) Consumption 3.7% (est. 3.4%, prev. 2.6%) Government Spending 4.7% (est. 2.0%, prev. 2.6%) Investment -12.5% (est. -2.0%, prev. 4.5%) Exports 4.8% (est. 3.7%, prev. -3.7%) Imports 2.9% (est. 2.5%, prev. -5.5%)
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸The share of US imports from 🇨🇳China has dropped to 15%📉, the lowest level since 2006. The 🇪🇺EU has once again become the largest import source for the US. 📍More Info:
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MacroMicro
6 months
🇹🇼Taiwan's version of de-risking, as Taiwan starts shifting its supply chains from China to Southeast Asia, orders received by Taiwan from Southeast Asia officially surpassed those received from China in October. #MM
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🚨🇹🇼Taiwan's June exports saw the biggest YoY drop since 2009 at -23.4% (prev. -14.1%), while Integrated Circuit exports accelerated their decline to -20.8% (prev. -8.0%). #MM 📍More Info:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🚨🇪🇺Eurozone Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has plummeted 📉 to -132, a level only seen during the 2008 GFC and the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic. 📍More Info:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸 #Fed 's balance sheet decreased 📉 by $21.1 billion this week, returning to pre-banking crisis levels. 📍 📊Fed lending outstanding fell 📉 to 274.6B from $278.2B previously. 1) Discount window lending remained at $3.2B.  2) Foreign repo remained at 0.
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
1 year
🇺🇸 May #FOMC minutes just came out. Fed officials do not seem to agree on how much more tightening is necessary going forward. Quick highlights below👇 "Inflation was unacceptably high...data through March indicated that declines in inflation, particularly... core inflation, had
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸The slope of US Phillips curve, an inverse relationship between unemployment & inflation, has steepened since pandemic, compare to the last few decades. Implication? #Fed may need to sacrifice the economy and see ~6% unemployment in order to bring CPI back to 2% target.
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
2 months
⚠️Breaking! 🇯🇵Japan's largest labor union, Rengo, announces initial outcomes of spring wage negotiations. A remarkable average total wage increase of 5.28% 🚀has been achieved, marking the highest surge in over three decades, surpassing last year's growth rate of 3.8%. #MM
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
1 year
🇺🇸US Banks' tightening standards lead loan growth by about 5 quarters, signaling that a decline in loan growth is just about to begin. 📊Make this chart using Toolbox for FREE🆓:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸US Initial jobless claims has increased by 44% from its 3-year low point. Continuing jobless claims also increased by 38% from its 3-year low point. 🚨 #Recessions always followed whenever this data has reached this level. 📊How to make this chart:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
6 months
🇨🇳China's first-ever quarterly FDI deficit highlights capital outflow pressure amid Western "de-risking" policies. Beijing faces challenges in attracting overseas companies. #MM
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🚨Global #Semiconductor sales YoY growth continued to decline in April. 🌎World -21.6%📉(prev -21.3%) 🇺🇸Americas -20.5% 🇪🇺Europe 2.3% 🇯🇵Japan -2.3% 🌏Asia Pacific -28.0% 📊FREE Charting Toolbox:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🚨🇪🇺Eurozone GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% on quarter in Q1 2023, defying earlier estimates of a modest 0.1% growth. Revised data for Q4 2022 now also shows a 0.1% decline, indicating the Eurozone has entered a minor technical #recession 📉. 📊More Info:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
21 days
⚠️Breaking! 🇺🇸US GDP Slows More Than Expected 📉GDP 1.6% (est. 2.5%, prev. 3.4%) 📉Consumption 2.5% (est. 2.8%, prev. 3.3%) 📉Government Spending 1.2% (prev. 4.6%) 📈Investment 3.2% (prev. 0.7%) 📉Exports 0.9% (prev. 5.1%) 📈Imports 7.2% (prev. 2.2%) 📍More Details:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇩🇪German manufacturing shrinks in July as demand weakens! 📉Composite PMI 48.3 (June 50.6). 8-month low. 📉Services PMI 52.0 (June 54.1). 5-month low 📉Manufacturing PMI 38.8 (June 40.6). 38-month low. 📍More Info:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇺🇸US ISM Services PMI declined to 52.7 in July! 🚨 📉Services PMI 52.7 (est. 53.0, prev. 53.9) 📉Business Activity 57.1 (prev. 59.2) 📉New Orders 55.0 (prev. 55.5) 📉Employment 50.7 (prev. 53.1) 📉Inventories 50.4 (prev. 55.9) 📈Backlog of Orders 52.1 (prev. 43.9) 📈Prices 56.8
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
9 months
⚠️🇨🇳China's July economic data falls below expectations! 📉Retail Sales YoY 2.5% (est. 4.7%, prev. 3.1%) 📉Industrial Production YoY 3.7% (est. 4.4%, prev. 4.4%) 📈Unemployment Rate 5.3% (est. 5.2%, prev. 5.2%) Jan-May 📉Fixed Asset Investment YoY 3.4% (est. 3.8%, prev. 3.8%)
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
1 year
🇺🇸US CDS reaches 15-year peak 🚨 following Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's statement that without Congress raising or suspending the debt limit, the US may not be able to meet its financial obligations by June 1. #Xday 📊CDS Monitor:
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MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸Nonfarm payrolls have shown strong growth recently, but history suggests that they typically decline 12 months after the 10-year and 3-month yield curve inversion. Will this time be any different?
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸 #Fed 's balance sheet increased 📈 by $3.47B this week, marking the first rise since 3/29. The addition of items such as BTFP played a major role in this increase. 📍 📊Fed lending outstanding #increased 📈 to 288.6 from $285.7B previously. 1) Discount
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸US Banks' tightening standards lead loan growth by about 5 quarters, signaling that a decline in loan growth is just about to begin. 📊Make this chart using Toolbox for FREE:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
7 months
🌎30.7% of global central banks have initiated interest rate cuts, and there is a growing trend of central banks pausing rate hikes. #MM
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇺🇸🚨 US government interest payments have reached a record high, leading to concerns about its fiscal health. In response to these developments, Fitch downgraded the US Credit Rating from AAA to AA+.
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
1 year
📢Introducing MacroMicro's AI-powered FOMC Hawkish-Dovish Index & Optimism Index! These tools use AI to decode the Fed's policy stance and economic outlook. Dive into the future of monetary policy analysis with us!
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🚨Breaking News! 🇬🇧 UK Core Inflation Soars to 7.1%, Reaching Highest Level in 30 Years! ➖CPI YoY 8.7% (est. 8.4%, prev. 8.7%) 📈Core CPI YoY 7.1% (est. 6.8%, prev. 6.8%) #MM 📊More Info:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🚨🇪🇺 Based on #ECB (2019) model, we calculated Eurozone's recession probability based on real money supply and term spread. With real M1 YoY down to -13.5% in June and German yield curve at its most inverted since '92, the chance of a recession in the next 12 months has
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
1 year
🇺🇸US Average Weekly Working Hours have dropped to 34.3, reaching a new low since 2020. Typically, businesses tend to reduce working hours first before resorting to layoffs. 📍More Info:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
1 year
US continuing jobless claims has increased 39% from its 12-month low point. #Recessions always followed whenever this data has reached this level.
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇺🇸US retail sales growth rate falls below expectations. MoM 0.2% (est. 0.5%, prev. 0.5%) YoY 1.5% (est. 1.6%, prev. 2.0%) 📍More Info:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
4 months
🚨Breaking! #Fed Increases Interest Rate for BTFP, Set to End on 3/11 1️⃣The Fed increased the interest rate for the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) due to a significant rise in loan balances. 2️⃣The new borrowing rate is set to be at least equal to the interest rate on reserve
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇪🇺Eurozone excess liquidity fell by €503bn after TLTRO settlement last week, bringing it down to €3.62tn.📉 📍More Info: #MM
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
3 months
🇨🇳⚠️China's consumer prices drop the most in over 14 years, marking the fourth straight month of decline. Food prices plummet (-5.9% yoy) led by further fall in pork prices. Non-food inflation edges lower (0.4% yoy) as costs rise for clothing, housing, health, and education. Core
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
2 months
🇯🇵Does a Global Economic Collapse Follow Japan's Interest Rate Hike? Historically, when the #BoJ raises interest rates, it often signals a global economic downturn. However, we believe history will not repeat itself this time. Two reasons: 1) We believe the BoJ won't engage in
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇺🇸Wall Street Strategists have their most #bearish outlook EVER for the 2nd half of the S&P 500. However, past experiences in 1999, 2019, 2020, and 2021 suggest that every time Wall Street was pessimistic about $SPX’s 2nd half, the market proved them wrong with positive returns.
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇺🇸 #Fed : A lower unemployment rate implies a higher risk of economic recession. According to Fed research, term spread is the best predictor for recessions, with the term spread plus unemployment model also performing well. But beware: empirical results suggest that a LOWER
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇺🇸 Several Takeaways from the #FOMC July meeting: ✔️Fed increased interest rates by 25 bp to 5.25%~5.5%, the highest level since February 2001. ✔️Chairman Powell stated that there will be no rate cut this year. ✔️Several members of the FOMC anticipate rate cuts next year. ✔️If
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
1 year
🇺🇸US ISM Services PMI declined to 50.3 in May! 🚨 📉Services PMI 50.3 (est. 51.8, prev. 51.9) 📉Business Activity 51.5 (prev. 52.0) 📉New Orders 52.9 (prev. 56.1) 📉Employment 49.2 (prev. 50.8) 📈Inventories 58.3 (prev. 47.2) 📉Backlog of Orders 40.9 (prev. 49.7) 📉Prices 56.2
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🇺🇸When bank credit tightening surged in the past, it usually meant higher default rates. Yet, this cycle shows a remarkable contrast, with credit spreads decreasing despite reaching crisis-level tightening. 📍Full Article:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🌎22.7% of central banks, mostly in emerging markets like Vietnam 🇻🇳, Sri Lanka 🇱🇰, Brazil 🇧🇷, and Chile 🇨🇱, are cutting rates, indicating we're near the end of the global tightening cycle since 2021. 📍More Info:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
11 months
🇺🇸The stock market is either telling us 'this time is different' because of AI, or we're just being overly optimistic and this time is not much different from the past. #MM 📊How to make this chart:
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@MacroMicroMe
MacroMicro
10 months
🚨🇯🇵Breaking News! #BoJ adjust YCC. BOJ will conduct YCC with more flexibility, regarding the upper and lower bounds of the range of references, not as rigid limits, in its market operations.
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