Weather enthusiast since April 2021. I want to help predict and conduct research on tornadoes. I want to become an Oklahoma storm chaser. + space and volcanoes
Todays events have significantly underperformed from what models where showing today wow.
I swear these models becoming more broken. Trying to print supercells like it’s May bruh
El Reno 2011 isn’t talked as much as it need to and that’s because it’s overshadowed so much by the other tornadoes that year.
It was spinning so hard and fast that it was able to generate enough friction with the ground to create 2 horizontal rolling vortexes. Insane.
Is it me or have high risk become less common especially in April and May. Is it because we are better at forecasting? Or is the environment becoming weaker? Like why haven’t we seen this in a while? We had 2019 but it busted tho. Idk it’s just odd to me
A lot of people think Typhoon tip hold the record for lowest pressure ever recorded on the surface of the earth however it’s actually The 2003 Manchester South Dakota wedge tornado. I have been looking for Tims prob data for so long and finally found it. CONFIRMED 850 MILLIBARS!!
I think everyone need to look at the February 8 2008 Super Tuesday tornado outbreak as a analog to this upcoming event. Not saying it will be anything like it but some of the synoptics are similar.
They say the Iowa tornado had peak ground winds of 224 mph however it won’t be rated EF5 because no damage will be found.
(Thankfully glad it didn’t hit anything more glad it wasn’t any worse)
Preliminary Wind Summary Measurements and Analysis from Harlan, IA tornado on Friday (26 April 2024).
Winds of ~224 mph and diameter of max winds of ~2966 ft.
Observations were taken as part of the
@NSF
-sponsored
#BEST
project led by
@karen_kosiba
and
@JoshuaWurman
I’m no expert. However. Based on the curved metal door alone That ain’t gonna stop high end EF3. The fact that those hinges on the outside as well big no no imo. Also the fact that it’s not even half inch thick steel. I’m sorry but this one ain’t cutting it
Very prelim analysis of DOW data show
>250 mph peak winds, possibly high as 290, at 44 m (144 ft) above ground in Greenfield, IA. Tornado very intense & also very small, so worst winds were in narrow swath. Raw data from DOW7 (L); Prelim DOW-measured center path. POD blue dot (R)
Oh my gosh. Saturday is the only day so far this year I have feeling a day 2 moderate. Strong to violent tornadoes imo or likely with any storm able to develop. Could go high ngl depends if models continue to show discrete cells
12z RRFS with a supercell explosion by 5pm in the plains on Saturday. Any storm in the open warm sector could be strongly tornadic given the favorable parameter space.
Wow likely a widespread severe weather outbreak now.many people including the SPC are very confident that large hail tornadoes and damaging wind are all possible.
Sunday's Verification Report:
Hail Risk (30#) @ 1630z verified okay, although a lot of the significant hail occurred before the ENH was issued.
Wind Risk (15%) saw 10 wind reports, all within the 15% area.
Tornado Risk (10#) @ 1630z did not verify. The 1 tornado report occurred
Saw some people sawing April 2nd wasn’t a tornado outbreak, and that the term “tornado outbreak” is thrown around too much
No, this was 100% a tornado outbreak
The average 10 sig has overpreformed this years 15-30 sig.
Mainly I think it’s just how crappy the models have been. No fault on the SPC at all. This year the models have been trash imo
I have made an estimated damage path of the tornado. No the color doesn’t mean EF4 and no I am not predating I am simply outline where an estimated path of the tornado was in Nashville
Wow Nam going nuts for Oklahoma on Monday with triple point. We are really far out for Nam so it will change. However All hazards seem possible with this upcoming widespread severe weather outbreak
Wow they hype is so real 🤣
People already screaming high risk and automatically comparing it to some of the top plains outbreaks.
Guys chill wait for tonight’s models