WeedFarmer
@Theweedfarmer
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Ex Bank Risk Quant. 7 figure investor:⛰⛏ ,🛢️,⛽️. All my opinions obviously, never any investment advice given. Husband | Father. 👉🏾Retweets≠Agreements
United States
Joined May 2021
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The
#lithium
mining industry looks to be entering the take-off phase
The M&A cycle is heating up, institutions are starting to deploy capital, governments are talking about it more, cost curves look excellent
A long-awaited bull market for lithium companies is getting started
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41
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@Toaster_Wuffles
@zerohedge
The spread between the 3mth London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) or equivalent and the overnight index swap (OIS) - often referred to as the ‘LOIS’ – is used as a barometer of money market stress, indicating the disparity between secured and unsecured short-term funding.
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4
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$CDEV $MTDR $SM $NR $TTI $RIG $RES $CPE $OXY $CVX $PDX $XOM $FANG
Yup,
Oil investors who loaded in solid oil stocks back in 2020 are now definitely sitting like Gods of the “smart investors” arena now.
Cheers,
🛢⛽️
8
7
61
What’s up oil fam
I’ve sold out of most of my $PR
Not because i don’t think there’s upside. I think it still has higher days
But it’s time for me to focus on
#lithium
mining⛰️⛏️
To the PR bulls, I’ll continue to hope you guys see $20+
One love oil fam
-Anthony
❤️🤍💙
🛢️🛢️🛢️
12
4
56
10 days before the start of the biggest FOMO run in the history of the oil markets
Jim Cramer said he was “putting money to work by selling big oil stocks”
Everything he sold ran 📈🛢📈
One simply cannot make this up 🤯
$CDEV $INTK $SPY
#OOTT
$AUNXF $SM $MTDR
@CramerTracker
7
5
49
$CDEV $MTDR $SM $NR $TTI
Not related to oil, but just got a call from my dad.
He’s now cancer-free after months of treatment!!!!!
BIG RELIEF 🙏🥲❤️
9
1
46
750ft privacy fence installation finished in our backyard.
We opted to only fence in 2/3 of the yard instead of the whole yard
The puppies can now roam freely unsupervised
🐕🐕🐕🐕🐕
We just gotta stain and paint the fence next. Still more work to do
Paid with
#oilandgas
💰
13
1
41
Lithium fam
@AlbemarleCorp
is now demonstrating exactly why I’ve disregarded the Chinese
#lithium
spot market
👉🏾It’s not relevant to 🇺🇸&🇨🇦 producer-refiners
$LAC $PLL $IONR $ALB $SLI $SGML $PMETF $FEMFF $CYDVF $ICMFF $NVLHF $NRVTF $LBNKF $AMLI $PEMIF $SXOOF $ABAT $NILIF $ELBM
2
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$CDEV
Looks like we’re almost there.
Congratulations to all bulls that stuck it out and are reaping huge life changing success.
🍻🌿
3
6
38
Translation:
$CDEV to $13+
$SM to $50+
$MTDR to $65+
$RES to $15+
$AUNXF to $0.25+
$MEG to $100+
$KOS to $12+
$CVX to $200+
$NR to $10+
$TTI to $10+
$CPE to $80
When Mastro, Canada's
#1
energy trader, at RBC says his "energy bullishness has been reinvigorated" I pay attention!
24
108
740
5
7
38
$PR
New 36 month high today.
Seems the stock market doesn’t care about any windfall tax news.
2
4
39
“We will not lend to fossil fuel companies or other businesses operating in environmentally sensitive industries.”
From the moment I read this, I knew that $FRC was destined to fail. 📉
#oilandgas
#Oilers
#WTI
#Commodities
#PermianOilMafia
🇺🇸
🛢️ $PR $SM $MTDR
5
13
36
$PR
🔘We increased production guidance by 4% (while increasing efficiency by dropping 7 to 6 rigs).
🔘At oil $75~$85 we’re clearly on track to achieve $1 billion in FCF for 2023.
🔘Variable dividends on track to begin in Q2.
🔘2022 operating costs now expected to be 5% lower.
3
10
36
$PR
Cowen stepped it up to $15.
I don’t believe in sell side valuations as targets❌
I do believe in them for direction/trend because they model using what is currently publicly known about the company ✅
Right now the trend is on track as how we expected 👍🏾
🛢️🍻
1
5
36
Just found out that my son (10th grader) got a 4 on his AP Calculus exam. 🥲
#Prouddad
#CollegeCredits
#Stem
#Math
#Calculus
#StudentAthlete
🤼♂️ + 🥊
12
1
34
“Incredible lithium price spike’ on way as new chemical capacity drives demand”
-Ken Brinsden, Former Pilbara chief
#Lithium
boom⛰️⛏️
$LAC $PLL $IONR $ALB $SLI $SGML $PMETF $FEMFF $CYDVF $ICMFF $NVLHF $NRVTF $LBNKF $AMLI $PEMIF $SXOOF $ABAT $NILIF $ELBM
0
8
34
We took all 5 kiddos to church today for the first time 🙏
Our youngest even got help to light the congregational sermon candles 🕯️💒🕯️
I’m relieved that all 5 kids like it there, good spiritual atmosphere 😇.
3
1
34
$CDEV
👑Permian Resources👑
⚔️$0.05 Quarterly Dividend
⚔️$500m buybacks (from $350m)
⚔️Borrow base $2.5b
⚔️Executive performance-only pay
⚔️Returning over 50% FCF
⚔️$1 bn to $1.3 bn in FCF
⚔️Leverage ratio .9X
⚔️NASDAQ to NYSE
⚔️merger synergies of $65m
⚔️2023 150–165 MBoe/
5
13
34
The situation is different today than it was back then.
Oil cycle was shorter than economic cycle historically.
But,
There’s a structural mechanism going on this time. US supply is being constrained.
Read some excepts from
@BisonInterests
/
@Josh_Young_1
for more insights.
2
6
34
People just don’t understand how much upside there still is to small-mid cap energy stocks
$PR $SM $MTDR
5
3
33
$CDEV Nation!!!
💥$350 million in planned Buybacks
💥10% to 15% Production increase without needing to add a 3rd rig
💥Brand new credit line with an additional 50 million in credit
💥Record free cashflows in 2021
💥Record EBITDA ...
9
9
33
I’m black, but
I don’t support
#BlackOwnedbusinesses
.
I don’t support
#WhiteOwnedbusinesses
either.
And I don’t support
#Hispanic
or
#Asian
businesses.
My money simply goes to the companies who’s prices are commensurate with the level of service they provide.
3
1
33
$PR
We need to give thanks to God 🙏 that our Co-CEOs clearly understand that the key to winning this game while delivering maximum shareholder value is NOT about hoarding idle assets that aren’t maximizing the NPV (Net present value) of our DCFs (discounted cashflows).
4
6
33
It’s easier to get wealthier with complete strangers versus people you know
People you know will worry about how much more your wealth is compared to theirs
Strangers are able to focus on the mission because they don’t care about your wealth. They care about their own wealth.
2
5
31
$CDEV fam
My updated valuations at various strip oil price levels:
Notes:
👉I applied a forward looking application of their intended 15% market cap buyback program (based only on what we know so far).
👉I did not apply a 15%...
5
8
32
Times are tough and not everyone can work remotely.
Let’s make sure we tip our servers just for showing up to work.
And if the service was great, then let’s tip them extra.👌
5
3
31
$PR
In yesterday’s mass,our minister preached about “taking care of those who take care of us”
While that applies to all walks of life,I wanted to share this positive energy with CDEV fam because no other O&G stock fam uplifted each other like we did over the past 3 years
🙏⛪️🛢️
3
1
32
$CDEV
Does the CDEV nation need me drop new updated NAV and cashflow models results on these doubters?
Sounds like we’re getting some attention now 😏
11
2
32
$PR
To create a $14 billion dollar oil company by acquiring $ESTE
💥Increases bases dividends to .06 per share in Q1-24
💥Accretive FCF per share by an average of >30% per year during the next 2 years
💥Synergies: +$175 million of annual FCF
💵 🥃 🚬
2
8
31
WE ARE $PR
No oil stock has changed more retail investor lives than CDEV/PR has in the past three years.
💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰
🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️
#oilandgas
#WTI
#Permian
#POM
>
#COM
5
6
29
We are not evil people
This is not personal against our loved ones who are suffering from high gas prices
We do not enjoy watching their suffering
We are simply people who made good timely investments
$CDEV $GTE $SM $MRO $MTDR $CPE $FANG $PXD $CVX $XOM $RES $TTI $MEG $WCP
2
3
31
$CDEV
👉Centennial = More “EFFICIENT”
Operations (lower SPUD time, less rigs needed)
👉Colgate = More “EFFECTIVE”
Operations (lower operating costs, better margins)
👉Combined Companies = More Optimal Operations (faster execution at lower costs)
5
6
31
$PR
Sex is good. But have you ever:
1. Loaded on a great oil stock at .80 in May 2020.
2. Watched it run to $2+ on June 8th 2020 and DIDNT sell.
3. Watched it drop down to .50 in October 2020, where you LOADED your life...
6
2
31
Did $CDEV significantly overpay for Colgate?
🧵-1
Cowen and Wells Fargo estimated Colgate’s purchase price at 4.5x and 4.7x respectively. These are higher than CDEV’s current valuation multiple.
However, are the multiples used by these two bankers reasonably forward looking??
1
19
31
$PR
OGs, any and all bad bets from our past….. getting sent to the moon with this stock soon 🚀🌔
2
4
31
Good day for the oil portfolio 🛢
Made up for Monday’s drop 👌🏾
$CDEV $REI $GTE $NOG $MRO $LPI $MTDR $CPE $FANG $PXD $CVX $XOM $CGXEF $RES $TTI $NR $AUNXF $SPY $MEG $SPGYF $WCP $MEGEF
4
1
30
The next wave of first time millionaires will be from
#Lithium
as lithium equities continue to maintain strong underlying fundamentals while trading in deep value territory
$LAC $PLL $IONR $ALB $SLI $SGML $PMETF $FEMFF $CYDVF $ICMFF $NVLHF $NRVTF $AMLI $PEMIF $SXOOF $ABAT $NILIF
7
3
29
The first $1,000 is hard
The first $10,000 is harder
The first $100,000 is even harder
The first $1,000,000 is the hardest
Stay Focused!!!
5
5
30
$PR $SM $MTDR $CVX $FANG
One of our five new pitbull puppies just said he’s feeling very bullish about 2023!!!
His name is Permian!
8
2
29
RIP to the street cred of those who claimed oil wasn’t going higher than $70.
Jim Cramer’s Mad Money⚰️
Cathy Woods ARKK ⚰️
Seeking Alpha authors ⚰️
Motley Fool authors ⚰️
Zack’s authors ⚰️
$CVX $SPY $SPX $QQQ $CDEV $MTDR $SM $NR $TTI $RIG $RES $CPE $OXY $AUNXF $PDX $XOM $FANG
4
8
29
$PR
Who cares about the opinions of a has-been using Twitter to ride out their mid-life crisis by bashing stocks they missed
Do they manage your money?
Just stay the course✅
Stay away from gossipers✅
Leave the conspiracy theories alone✅
Keep your mind pure & objective✅
3
4
30
Lord knows I’ve made a lot of mistakes.
But pouring my life savings into $PR back in 2020 happened to be one thing I did RIGHT.
🙏
3
0
30
Not trading rest of week.
Enjoying time with family in Nawlins!!
4
1
30
My updated NAV model:
Company:
@ElectraBMC
Sector:
#Materials
#Refining
#Mining
Ticker: $ELBM
CEO:
@TrentMell
Recycling Peers: $ABML $LICY
Refining Peers: None (domestically)
#Cobalt
#Manganese
#Graphite
#Nickel
#Lithium
#Aluminum
#BlackMass
#EV
*I'm Long-Bullish|Not advice*
20
11
29
$CDEV
Congratulations to bulls that held on and ignored the “false/quack” oil experts that claimed that it was better to sell last year.
Wall Street will begin to notice us much more now 😎
CDEV + Colgate = 😈😈
6
11
30
Thought for the day: If the best investment for a Canadian co is to buy a US co like $ROCC, I may have to abandon my plans to look at Canadian cos
7
1
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12
1
29
1
0
27
Remember, there are no “moral victories” in the stock market.
There are only those getting murdered
And
Those doing the murdering
$SPY $SPX $QQQ $CDEV $MTDR $SM $NR $TTI $RIG $RES $CPE $OXY $CVX $PDX $XOM $FANG $INTK $DGWR $FERN $INTV $ISWG $DMGGF $GRNWF $KGKG $AMTX $OOTT
2
4
29
$NSAV
@NSAVTech
How im enjoying coffee today ☕️
I didn’t like the Aug 9th situation…but I’m still HODLing…
2
3
28
$PR
Those young sons of guns
Give a way higher dividend than I expected and they added an extra $150 million to the buyback program
💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰
🛢🛢🛢🛢🛢🛢🛢🛢🛢🛢🛢
3
3
29
👉No oil demand drop from recession
👉Russian sanctions kick in December
👉SPR runs out this late fall.
👉OPEC has limited capacity
Oil stocks will see the mother of all rallies!!
$CDEV $SM $MTDR $OXY $DVN $CVX $XOM
4
7
29
Real Oil bulls haven’t gone anywhere.
Still here…
Still collecting dividends…
Still waiting on oil recross $100+…
We didn’t sell out yet because we know this is only halftime for $PR
$SM
and $MTDR
2
4
28
$PR
I didn’t sell shit today.
$10 was not the goal….Nowhere close.
This isn’t CDEV anymore. This is the 👑 of the Motha F’in Pure Play Permian Cartel
#POM
🛢️⚔️💀⚔️🛢️
4
2
28
#Lithium
fam,
Let’s understand the arena before we pour our life savings into jr lithium stocks.
Know the difference between the deposit types:
#Sedimentary
(clay)
#Brine
(lake beds)
#Hardrock
(
#spodumene
)
1
6
28
$CDEV Nation:
As expected, CDEV didn’t let us down🏅
Oil production is 🆙
NGL production is 🆙
Natural Gas production is 🆙
Proven reserve value is 🆙
📌Quarterly EBITDAX is unimaginably high
📌 Personal best on Free Cashflow...
4
10
28
1/4
#Lithium
fam,
The Chinese lithium spot prices seem to be trying to bottom out after dropping over 70% YTD from $80k to $21k per ton USD.
So why am I not concerned about this year’s plunge in prices, not even for a second?
See below ⬇️
1
9
27
@Josh_Young_1
According to my NAV, $PR is worth $18+ and will also begin paying $1 annual dividends after the $500M buybacks.
Imagine buying 200k CDEV shares at $1 in 2020/2021 ($200k cost).
Your ANNUAL dividend payments will be equivalent the investment cost!
Who can argue with that IRR??
4
5
27
Me on the phone with my broker trying to reverse my trades…….. after realizing that I took profits on $PR way too soon.
2
2
26
Irony:
Using my oil stock gains to invest in lithium stocks.
Then
Using my lithium stock gains to purchase a 6.7 liter-diesel ⛽️ guzzling Ford Super Duty 🛻.
7
0
27
Attached is my intrinsic valuations of $SM at various strip oil price intervals. This approach has been over 90% accurate for me in the past two years.
As we can see, there is still massive potential upside!
$CDEV $MTDR $NR $TTI $RIG $RES $CPE $OXY $CVX $PDX $XOM $FANG $AUNXF
8
4
25
If you owned shares in CDEV & stomached:
✊Fall 2020 low(.50)
✊No dividend
✊Delisting warning
✊Reverse Split fear
✊CEO/COO/CFO changes
✊A merger with experts bashing claiming lack of accretion
✊A new ticker $PR paying dividends
✊$15
Congratulations,you escaped the Matrix
4
4
27
Delegating will drastically improve your mental health.
I hired a guy on Upwork to do a few things for me:
• Workout
• Read books
• Journal
• Pursue a hobby
• Meditate
I have so much more free time and my Upwork guy says he feels so refreshed every day working for me.
4
1
27
$CDEV
These analysts are close enough to my $16+ 🤝
Let’s GOO!!
💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰
🛢🛢🛢🛢🛢🛢🛢🛢🛢🛢
1
6
27
It’s a lot better to walk alone than with a crowd that’s going in the wrong direction.
1
0
26
$SM purchased 900,000 shares last month in buybacks.
Total shares now down to 121.9 million.
$0.15 per share dividends will be paid on 2/6/23.
1
2
26
$SM
Took very small profits today on SM at $49.15.
Only sold about $150,000 worth (wife traded).
CDEV:
👉Will sell half of CDEV at $16
👉Then will sell remaining CDEV at rate of 5,000 shares per month after that regardless of price.
5
3
26
$CDEV
How many times have i said $12??
Don’t ever doubt the model 😏
🍻
@buybuy123sellsell
🍻
@Langco003
3
5
26
$CDEV
Merger notes 🧵
1)Operational:
🔘Wells payout < 6 month
🔘Will save 6 days per well on Colgate's existing Spud time
🔘Plan is 140 wells annual
🔘CDEV to lower operating costs leveraging Colgate's efficiencies
🔘Colgate produces 62,000 bpd
🔘Colgate is ~50% oil/gas prod
2
10
26
For $PR a 20% buyback this year actually means +200% increase in dividends next year.
Details coming soon!!
It’s been modeled 😎
A 20% share buyback today means a 25% dividend increase next year.
31
41
587
1
8
26
$PR
I like the fact that we are all so greedy together about the same thing.
Back in 2020:
We would have killed for $70 oil and $9 PR/CDEV
Now:
We are angry about $70 oil and $9 PR
I’m never leaving you folks…. Y’all really understand my emotions 🥰
1
1
26
Shout out to anyone that’s ever been down -50% on a stock researched the cause,
hold on or bought more,
then ended selling it for a +500% gain later on with only paying long term capital gains taxes 🥂
5
1
26
If you’re a long bull in $CDEV and found this post insightful please reshare it for other CDEV bulls to see.
-Your day-1 CDEV dog
0
6
26
16+ hours of driving filled with nothing but discussions on
#mines
#metals
#investing
#family
#life
#wealth
#faith
We were lucky to get a lunch with a seasoned
#geologist
who shared lots of insights on the
#Econometrics
on
#mining
with:
@Brainiac0I0I
@boksur_reddy
@W_WRanch
2
3
26
My rethinking of $CDEV
Hey team, I just wanted to give you an update on my thoughts of my position in CDEV. I don’t think that I’ll be selling that big of a position this year (<30%)
I’m going to keep a big position in it into next year (i will sell out of other oilers though)
2
6
26
$PR is up roughly +100% since the initial market reaction to the merger news exactly one year ago when it fell to $5.
I think on a 12-month rolling basis,
@permianres
is outperforming all peers for investors.
WE. ARE. PR 🙌
6
5
26
Got nothing but respect for
@Josh_Young_1
🫱🏼🫲🏾
That’s why I’m stealing his infamous meme for $PR
Cheers to all the oil bulls still hanging on 🍻
#Permian
🫱🏼🫲🏾
#COM
🫱🏼🫲🏾
#OOTT
🫱🏼🫲🏾
#Bakken
🫱🏼🫲🏾
#Guyana
🫱🏼🫲🏾
#Drillers
🫱🏼🫲🏾
#Deepwater
🫱🏼🫲🏾
2
3
26
$PR (formerly CDEV) hit a new 52week high today of $9.98.
Almost busted down the $10 Wall
🔜🔜🔜🔜🔜 🧱 🔨
0
7
25
Proud moments,
I earned another Fintwit badge of honor 🎖
$SPY $QQQ $FERN $INTV $BLQC $GRCU $KGKG $DGWR $NSAV $AUNXF
9
1
25
The winners of the next commodity investing wave will not be determined by who has the lowest cost averages.❌
Instead, it will be determined by who acquired the most shares.✅
Same as those who loaded in summer of 2020.
The strategy hasn’t changed, just the stocks to buy.
5
5
26
Back in my day...toilet paper and eggs were so cheap we'd buy them in bulk and throw them at the houses of our enemies.
3
1
25
$CDEV
Even if you assume a 20% increase in operating costs due to inflation, CDEV will still generate over $1 billion in Free Cashflows in 2023.
If you know, you know.
0
4
25
$CDEV
No surprises in today’s Colgate documents. Looks as expected 👍🏾
Anyone spending time worrying about Net Loss/Income clearly doesn’t understand how to evaluate companies in this space (this isn’t a tech company with goodwill or R&D)
The answer is clear! 😉
3
6
25
Me arguing with people who doubt $PR is heading to $15
🖕vs🖕
4
1
25
@AntonioArellano
-I was an immigrant🗽
-Came in 1991🛬
-Earned HS diploma🎓👨🏾🎓
-Earned Bachelors degree📜👨🏾🎓
-Earned Multiple Masters degrees 📜📜👨🏾🎓
-Bought house🏡
-Worked 20+years👨🏾🍳👨🏾💼
-Paid taxes each year💸🏛️
-Became Entrepreneur👨🏾🌾
-Started a family 👨👩👦👦
-I now provide jobs for other immigrants🗽
6
2
24