The Super Model
@TheSuper_Model
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Polls stink. Forecasters stink. Markets are decent. This might be slightly better.
Joined September 2024
Earn real money on a play-money platform? Prediction markets look different in 2026. https://t.co/rP7wKU1884
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The wait is (almost) over! https://t.co/rP7wKU1884 exits practice mode at 12 am on new year's. The 1st prediction market where you can: - Trade PLAY money, earn REAL money - Click-to-build bulletproof, self-settling markets - Own (or sell) your markets' private price signal
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Pretty persistent house effects across platforms, even as relatively stable markets get (relatively) volatile. Here, does it mean @ManifoldMarkets and @Polymarket are more Mamdani-sympathetic (whatever that might mean politically) than @Kalshi and @PredictIt... or just sharper
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Mamdani experiences his first meaningful decline (and Cuomo his first meaningful bump) in weeks in our aggregate, as in-person early voting begins in NYC. https://t.co/vqCapQZLFw
thesupermodel.com
The finest indicator of who'll win 2025 New York mayoral election
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A mild disturbance in the NYC mayoral force last night, spurred by a potential insider buying up Sliwa dropout shares on @polymarket (with prices briefly leaping from 10% to 50%).
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Eric Adams, White House in talks over potential Trump admin job — as pressure mounts for NYC mayoral candidates to rally against Zohran Mamdani: sources https://t.co/4Geo3ipfmK
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It's a bit hard to make out amidst the enmeshing, but Cuomo has finally wrested the #2 spot from Adams in the Super Model aggregate (as @ManifoldMarkets increasingly becomes an outlier among its peers - notably more Mamdani-philic and Cuomo-skeptical).
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Cuomo commits to staying in, suggests that he and Adams back whoever's leading polls vs. Mamdani come september. The move mostly closed the gap with Adams, but hasn't caused Mamdani to budge.
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Thanks for having me on to talk about prediction markets. It’s a rapidly evolving space with a lot to think about, especially for the gambling industry. Still waiting on Maryland to see how optimistic I am about sports contracts’ longevity.
THE FAVORITES IS LIVE! 🎲 Join @chadmillman, @SimonHunterNFL, and @GerlacherC as they explore the growing impact of prediction markets on the future of sports betting. TUNE IN NOW! ➡️ https://t.co/hw424GBx0W
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