Jeff Rogg
@TheSpyTheState
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Senior Research Fellow @usf_gnsi - Views mine - Probably fishing 🎣 “Better to be a poor fisherman than to meddle with the government of men.” Georges Danton
Tampa, FL
Joined December 2020
Teddy 02/16/18-01/15/21 — Teddy had qualities to which humans should aspire. Wiser than me in many ways, he will always remind me: “The World is a better one than You deserve; strive to make Your Self more worthy of it.”
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NOW STREAMING: The official story of what happened on 9/11 is a complete lie. Our new 5-part series of first-hand accounts and primary sources reveals what the government has hidden. >>
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“... if we mean by historian someone who is concerned to discover the truth about the past, and to give as accurate a representation of it as possible, then Irving is not a historian.” Same goes for @TuckerCarlson, @martyrmade, and others spreading just plain bad history.
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Ask and you shall receive. Just a few days after posting that we don’t have enough *real* historians on podcasts, I am delighted to see this:
“Nothing About This Is Accidental!” A stark warning from Britain’s leading historian of Nazi Germany and the expert witness who defeated David Irving, Sir Richard Evans. In this interview, he unpacks the new wave of revisionism that is spreading online. From Hitler revisionism
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One of the great problems of our time: There’s a whole lotta history being discussed on news, podcasts, and other media without actual historians being part of the conversation.
I’m not sure Tucker’s been relying on the best WW2 ‘experts’ for his understanding of Hitler and the Nazis.
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As I've written, "coordination is the albatross of American intelligence reform." For further reading, you can't do better than Roberta Wohlstetter "Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision" or for shorter reading, David Kahn "The Intelligence Failure of Pearl Harbor."
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When you look at the state of the American intelligence system in 1941, you can see why Pearl Harbor happened. And we still suffered similar problems ahead of 9/11--also an intel failure and not a govt conspiracy!
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Even with all the warnings, there were still failures in collection and analysis. Plus, the intel never lined up to reveal the time, place, and date of the attack. The enemy gets a vote, and the Japanese did a good job hiding the plan.
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The US had broken the Japanese diplomatic Purple Code in fall 1940, but it didn't reveal military plans. It did, however, take time and resources away from breaking Japanese Army and Navy codes.
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Army and Navy SIGINT also didn't work well together and were focused on different targets (the Japanese Army and Navy, respectively). The Army wasn't able to solve Japanese Army codes. The Navy struggled to break the Japanese naval code, JN-25, which still wouldn't have helped.
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Codebreaking was probably our best shot to discover the plan, but US SIGINT was a mess, with the Army and Navy literally dividing responsibility for breaking Japanese diplomatic traffic on odd and even days.
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Japanese consuls and ambassadors were to relay the codeword “HARUNA” back to Japan once the codes were destroyed. On the evening of December 2, 1941, the Japanese Consul General in Hawaii, Nagao Kita, sent the confirmation code back to Tokyo.
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Robert L. Shivers, the FBI Special Agent in Charge in Honolulu, reported that the FBI intercepted a telephone call from the cook at the Japanese Consulate claiming that the Japanese Consul General was “burning and destroying all his important papers," a sign war was imminent.
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Still, Navy intel reported on Nov 26, 1941, that Japan was organizing a task force including its largest carriers, although the report misjudged its geographic targets.
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Navy intel dismissed Grew's warning about an attack on Pearl and was more focused on the Atlantic and Germany, including German spies, saboteurs, and U-boats than on Japan and the Pacific.
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Army intel received a tip in Jun 41 about the construction of a Japanese submarine fleet to attack Hawaii, but it doubted the credibility of the report.
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Grew had earlier reported in Jan 41 at tip that a Peruvian diplomat had told him the Japanese were planning to attack Pearl Harbor. US intelligence had nearly a year to detect the attack, so why didn't it?
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On Nov 17, 1941, Joseph Grew, the American ambassador to Japan, cabled Washington “our present most important duty perhaps is to detect any premonitory signs of naval or military operations" but “to discount...the likelihood of our ability to give substantial warning."
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Historian of American intelligence here: FDR did not know about or allow the attack to happen. Countless books, chapters, and articles have been written about the Pearl Harbor intelligence failure, including my own. What did the US know? Glad you asked:
Tucker Carlson claims: “In 1941, Roosevelt allowed Pearl Harbor to happen to get America into the war.” He proceeds to get some of the most basic historical facts wrong. Carlson insists it is “proven” that Roosevelt had full knowledge of the Pearl Harbor attack and allowed it to
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Publication opportunity! @SocIntelHist and @IntelNatSecJnl are teaming up to support early career scholars and students interested in publishing book reviews on intelligence topics (broadly understood). If you are interested, please contact me!
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One of the most important documents in American intelligence history ⬇️
OTD 1944 OSS Director Gen. William Donovan sent a memorandum to FDR that outlined his proposal for a permanent, post-war central intelligence agency reporting directly to the President. Donovan argued that peacetime intelligence would require a single, central authority to
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