Jeff Rogg
@TheSpyTheState
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Senior Research Fellow @usf_gnsi - Views mine - Probably fishing š£ āBetter to be a poor fisherman than to meddle with the government of men.ā Georges Danton
Tampa, FL
Joined December 2020
Teddy 02/16/18-01/15/21 ā Teddy had qualities to which humans should aspire. Wiser than me in many ways, he will always remind me: āThe World is a better one than You deserve; strive to make Your Self more worthy of it.ā
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How has recent CIA history influenced US civil-intelligence relations? Here are some observations in a @TheTLS review of @Folly_and_Gloryās The Mission and The Spy and the State:. Deep State vs Donald Trump | TLS
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Youād be surprised where you find spies! I never thought Iād find them in Tampa Bay, but I did while researching my book. In this interview on @FOX13News, @LindaHurtadoFOX and I talk both locally and nationally about American intelligence history:.
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Eager to see how @Folly_and_Glory approaches the recent history of CIA in this companion to Legacy of Ashes!.
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"Intel--Secrets and Civil Liberties" is a great title for this episode of @boundbythecloak. Zoey and Chandi asked such fantastic questions that reflect what the American people want to know and should know about US intelligence history!.
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RT @USF_GNSI: š Do We Have to Choose Between Liberty and Security?.š§ Dr. Jeff Rogg joins (@TheSpyTheState) ATB toā¦.
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Historians will always say we should learn from the past. In the case of intelligence history, it is especially important today. Lots of connections between the past and present here:.
š Do We Have to Choose Between Liberty and Security?.š§ Dr. Jeff Rogg joins (@TheSpyTheState) ATB to discuss coordination breakdowns, oversight tensions, & the evolving line b/w liberty & security. #Intelligence #GNSI #NationalSecurity #TheSpyInTheState
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RT @HurstPublishers: Congratulations to @warmatters on the publication of War in the Smartphone Age: Conflict, Connectivity and the Crisesā¦.
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The biggest intelligence controversies in American history have involved domestic surveillance. If the American people havenāt liked it in the past, they really arenāt going to like whatās ahead. Another case for studying US intelligence history here:.
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This is why we need intel declassified for the public. Letās also see what the briefers said, what agencies they represented, and what level of confidence they had. Otherwise these are just interpretations of classified assessments.
I was briefed on the intelligence last week. Iran posed no imminent threat of attack to the United States. Iran was not close to building a deliverable nuclear weapon. The negotiations Israel scuttled with their strikes held the potential for success.
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RT @warmatters: My book comes out next week. Something like this cannot be written without the help and support of a lot of good people.ā¦.
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RT @FDRLibrary: It's a packed house for Jeffrey Rogg on his book @TheSpyTheState: The History of American Intelligence .
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Several important distinctions here and an even bigger reminder to both policymakers and the American public to be careful about the analogies they use to interpret contemporary events.
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What I mean is, public audiences and lay readers should look at the positions that practitioners, scholars, and policymakers have adopted on other issues of American foreign policy and understand how they influence their analysis of other countriesā intentions/interests.
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This politicization has extended to US intelligence assessments of Iranās nuke program as both interventionists and isolationists are interpreting USIC analysis to suit their own preferred policies.
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The more pressing and fascinating politicization is in the US between competing interests (both left and right) over American isolationism vs interventionism. Itās producing strange bedfellows on both sides of the American political spectrum.
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Observers are conflating Bibi and Israel as it suits their own analysis. Even if Bibi decided when to strike Iran, the Israeli consensus is that it had to happen, so the American isolationist attempt to politicize Israeli politics actually fails here when in reality (tbc).
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This comment doesnāt account for the national consensus (extremely rare in Israeli politics) over the need to strike Iran. Itās not just Bibiās war, itās Israelās. And Israel, the country, is determined to secure itself and its interests whether the US enters offensively or not.
Israel does not know, because no one can, what kind of Iran will emerge from the wreckage: whether it will be more aggrieved or less, nuclear armed or not, a functioning state or a cauldron of chaos. Netanyahu took a gamble nonetheless, figuring the United States would finish his.
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FDR was one of the most influential presidents in US intelligence history. Want to know more? Join me in the beautiful Hudson Valley this weekend for the @FDRLibrary Roosevelt Reading Festival!.
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Thatās actually not a terrible analogy because it illustrates why an assessment of Iranās nuke program based on its alleged intentions does not address how/why Iran has advanced its capabilities.
āThe CIA chiefās analysis of Iranās nuclear program is pessimistic and closer to Trumpās. According to two people familiar with his testimony, Ratcliffe used a football analogy in a closed-door Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing Tuesday to argue that the formal U.S.
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Everyone is talking about regime change in Iran, but often confusing regime change with revolution. Let's explore the differences between the two and the stakeholders involved.
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