Chris Weston
@ChrisWeston_PS
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Head of Research at Pepperstone. If you like the cut of my jib, sign up to the ‘Daily Fix’ research note -
Joined July 2018
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Nomura have put together this awesome chart showing all the event risk you need to understand over the coming months. We will all be political commentators again...
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Expanded the Weston clan, with a little lass..number 3, not exactly sure what I’ve signed up for but it’s started well...
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This cracked me up...Bloomberg's Matt Levine on Musk's quest for a more energy efficient crypto
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Starting the return flight from London to Melbourne, 3 kids under 8.
Thoughts and prayers🙏
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Settling in to watch replay of rugby and 2yr old throws a nicely weighted train at the TV... hoping game played on the left side of the TV
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*KURODA: BOJ'S PAPER LOSS FROM ETF HOLDINGS IS ABOUT 2-3 TLN YEN - Solid trade
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🇺🇸Fed balance sheet dynamics -
A $116b build in the TGA, but mostly funded by RRP balances than bank reserves - a net positive for risky assets
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*OPEC+ WILL CONSIDER OUTPUT CUT OF MORE THAN 1 MILLION BARRELS
Good for a pop in crude futures?
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Bring the noise
🇺🇸22 different Fed speeches this coming week
🇬🇧6 BoE speakers
🇪🇺30 ECB speakers
🤯🤯🤯🤯
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Keeping it incredibly real here.. keep in mind when I get the call up it’s usually the point when we see extreme pessimism and the low point in equity drawdown
Today's sharemarket falls have capped off the worst week since the global financial crisis, and all because of coronavirus.
@ChrisWeston_PS
@Brett_Mcleod
#9News
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Crypto not looking so hot today...high beta risk asset confirmed
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Technical analysis on the VIX....the work of Lucifer himself
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Inversion 2s10s… it’s all doom 🤯 or is it? The average return in the S&P in last 13 inverted 2/10 curve is 3.7% over next 60 days and 12% over next year
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Had enough of the carnage.. off to Queens…all these ballers not realising we’re all just a little poorer today
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Morgan Stanley research call: “Downgrading Global Equities to Underweight,
The risk/reward for global equities looks poor on our cross-asset framework, especially over the next three months”.
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Perhaps this is a touch bear porn, but a few quick reasons why equities are rolling over - sure there are plenty more (the Cramer call aside)
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*CHINA JULY HOME PRICES FALL 3.09% M/M; DECLINE FASTER THAN JUNE
Not so good ⬇️
*PBOC ADDS MOST CASH SINCE FEB. VIA REVERSE REPO ON NET BASIS
🇨🇳 The PBoC are adding liquidity into the interbank system - bullish risk
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*BANK OF RUSSIA STARTS BUYING FX TO CURB RUB STRENGTH: VEDOMOSTI
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10 hours ago I'd never heard of B.1.1.529, now we're seeing all sellers in ZARJPY, NKY -2.2%, ASX200 -1.3%, DAX futures -1.2%, RTY futs -1.4% , UST 5s -6bp, crude -1.9%...lots of question, not a lot of answers at this stage
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For those following, here's the onshore/offshore interest schedule for Evergrande.. if they miss the $83m coupon payment tomorrow there is a 30-day period before considered a default..agree, its not Lehmans
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Bank of Russia Raises Key Rate to 20% From 9.5%
There’s some decent carry there if you can get it
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*ELON MUSK TAKES 9.2% PASSIVE STAKE IN TWITTER
Here we go….
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Mike Wilson (Morgan Stanley) advising clients to cut out of US equity tactical longs - “we are now right into our original upside targets and we recommend taking profits before the Bear returns in earnest”
Called it pretty well of late
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I know we all love a V-shaped index recovery, but two things suggest this bad boy needs more work:
1) bad things happen after short selling bans 2) 9% rallies are frequent in bear markets (2008 example) - I like what I see but I’m an old weary head and need a bit more from price
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As we all go about putting out the best takes as geopolitical experts, lets not forget its a proper central bank fest this week ahead - and you know you love it
15x Fed speeches, 16x ECB speeches, 8 BoE, 1x BoJ & 1x SNB
Stay safe out there....🫶
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*TREASURY 5-TO-30 YEAR YIELD CURVE INVERTS FIRST TIME SINCE 2006
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⏩Trader Thoughts - headlines on UBS/CS and US
#Bankcollapse
news will come in thick & fast over the next 12 hours
I've set a platform for what we've seen in the news flow in banks + how markets may react on open tomorrow
It could get lively, very lively - here's my 2 cents👊
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*PERSHING SQUARE HOLDINGS REPORTS ZERO SHORT POSITIONS FOR JAN. The new PR tool
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Why is gold -1.5% i hear? Well, aside from having a decent run and nothing goes up forever - US 10yr real +2bp, CoT hit extremes with 239k net futures, 1m call vol 3.23vols > put vol (nearing extremes), 1m IV 1.35 vols > 1yr (2 std dev of 5yr average)....buy the dips homes
#gold
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Hitting up the in-laws cattle station in deep NT next week - don the Jacaru, dust off the RM's, hit up the red soil and muster 3k head.
Great for the soul...the kids empire awaits
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There are 3 things that maketh man - building his own shed, patio & owning a hammer drill. More importantly, there are 4 beliefs that make us better humans -health, wealth & knowledge of oneself & Twitter followers - today i received my 10000th follower, which is pleasing -TY all
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One of the great things about running early doors in the Gold Coast is that while the Insta models/influencers see a (modestly) OW aging man, they also assume I played League - so for a split second think I’m proper hard
That matters
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*JAPAN BOND FUTURES TRADING HALTED: OSAKA EXCHANGE
Hard to say I’m shocked
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*ITV SAYS PIERS MORGAN TO LEAVE GOOD MORNING BRITAIN - GBPUSD unchanged
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Saying this as a Pom, but Australia is the best country on this planet - happy Australia Day!!
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Said to wifey that its ugly here in the markets, told her it could be even worse if we get a really hot NF payrolls report today - she was confused - "our portfolio will be hurt by good jobs numbers?"
"Yes, good news is bad news dont you know"...she walks away🤷♀️
What a world
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Silver (XAGUSD) 1-week implied volatility spiking on Friday = 4.2% expected daily move. The 1-week risk reversal (call vol >put vol) has exploded to highest ever...all relative buyers of upside $slv
#silver
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I rang SeaWorld the other day.
The lady on the phone said "Please be aware this call may be recorded for training porpoises"...
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The big guns come out - we see 4 houses calling 75bp now, but Rabobank take it further calling for the Fed to go 100bp this week.....
Go hard to go home
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*IRON ORE SINKS 6.3% AFTER CHINA'S VOW TO CURB STEEL PRODUCTION
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*CHINA TELLS BANKS EVERGRANDE WON'T PAY INTEREST DUE SEPT. 20
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Ladies, if you’re on the Prosecco’s in Melbourne CBD tonight and strangly drawn to an aging and modestly OW Pom - you know why. Tonight I roll hard
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I’ll take that.. now, I guess it’s time to focus on CS and market banter
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Driving Melbourne to Brissy, w. 3 kids 🫣
My market on the no. times Baby Shark is played - 47/49
Prayers
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*HARKER: FED WON'T IGNORE PERFORMANCE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS
Nope...always nice to hear it explicitly from the Fed.. 3rd mandate right here
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Feel genuinely proud that the team at Pepperstone are supporting a number of bushfire charities and donating $50,000, as well as matching the contributions from employees... a global effort
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*NORWAY'S SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND LOST $174B IN 1H - you thought you did poorly in 1H? sounds like a lot
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Nike half marathon tomorrow- 42 years old, a touch rotund, minimal training in the NT outback…a classic case of holding back the years
If you see me collapsed on St Kilda road on the way to the G, help me out and throw me over the line🤘
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*EVERGRANDE BONDHOLDERS YET TO BE PAID AS GRACE PERIOD ENDS - oooohhh the suspense
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A traders’ week ahead playbook – the last hoorah of 2023
All eyes fall on US CPI and FOMC and to a slightly lesser extent BoE, ECB and SNB meets - we also get triple witching
A huge week ahead...a summary of the key events, views and playbook to get set for
#trading
week ahead
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Getaway seems like a poor program to run on Ch.9 right now
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Wheat off 20% from the highs...looking like might break down here...the human race should see this as a good thing
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AUSTRALIA'S 10-YEAR BOND YIELD SLIDES 19 BPS TO 1.73% - that's a chunky old move
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*CHINA APRIL MANUFACTURING PMI AT 49.2; EST. 51.4
Probably good for 10-15p lower in AUD tomorrow
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Trader thoughts - a hawkish Fed? Doesn't matter- markets are in beast mode, with silly moves in Chinese equities, amid positive headlines of Russia/Ukraine exploring plans that could lead to ceasefire.
Risk FX 👆, gold off its lows & sellers in rates
What went down
#trading
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Why every trader should have the JPY on the radar..trader thoughts
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Putting it out there....sample isnt huge but major USD declines play out in 7 year clips...while a ST bounce is elevated, a renewed bear trend brings 88.25 (Feb 2018 low) into play & that is a huge support level for the $DXY - if that goes then the 7 year repeat becomes a risk.
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I know Scomo isn’t a trader, for his sins, but at least announce and let people part cash out of super after a 5-10% rally and not at the lows
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Trader thoughts - a bloodbath - everyone trying to put fundamental rationale behind the move but its the flow show - higher real rates, USD, vol up - funds deleveraging, market makers hedging delta, sell programs, poor liquidity
No real panic, feels like there is more to come
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*UNITED AIRLINES WITHDRAWS 2020 FORECAST, CITING CORONAVIRUS - *UNITED AIR SEEING ~75% DECLINE IN N-T DEMAND ON TRANS-PACIFIC - *UNITED AIR SEEING ~100% DECLINE IN NEAR-TERM DEMAND TO CHINA - darkness
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*CME RAISES COMEX SILVER FUTURES MARGINS BY 18%......and so it starts
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Hikes priced in Aussie rates now - by step
June - 36bp
July - 38bp
August - 40bp
Sept - 36bp
Cash rate eyed at 2.77% by yr end
Terminal c.3.4%
Neutral 2.5%
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*EVERGRANDE, PROPERTY MGMT UNIT SUSPEND TRADING IN HONG KONG
look out 👀👀
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$3.3t of options notional expiring on Friday 18th, just after the FOMC.. going to be a monster week ahead
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Markets in 2 minutes - huge volatility on the floors again, notably in SOFR & UST/GE 2's
Good USD buyers
Banks offered, but rotation into staples, utilities & tech - its not all bad😀
Today's ECB could get very lively - the market prices 29bp of hikes here
What has gone ⬇️
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*AUSTRALIA SELLS BILLS AT NEGATIVE YIELD FOR FIRST TIME - down under yields 🙃
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S&P500 futures +0.1% - no real reaction to the idea that we're about to see an imminent collapse of the banking sector and interbank borrowing costs sky rocketing
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*HOUSTON ON PACE TO EXCEED INTENSIVE-CARE CAPACITY BY TOMORROW
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*AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR YIELD JUMPS TO 4.26%, HIGHEST SINCE 2014
Remember 2014 well, early Dec, leading into Christmas, it was a cold, bitter night in Melbourne - the ACGB 10yr yielded 4.42% - what happened from here was the start of a multi-year bull market
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Bit of an indicator for tonight's US jobless claims - *CA GOV: 1 MILLION IN STATE HAVE FILED JOBLESS CLAIMS THIS MONTH
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*DRUCKENMILLER: STIMULUS WILL BE DEFLATIONARY, NOT INFLATIONARY
*DRUCKENMILLER: NEGATIVE RATES MAKE NO SENSE
The great man speaks
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*LOWE: MONITORING HOW PERVASIVE SHIFT IN INFLATION PSYCHOLOGY IS
*LOWE: WON'T RESPOND UNTIL EVIDENCE OF PERVASIVE PRICE PRESSURES
Pervasive - the new buzz word in Aussie monetary policy
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*CHINA HALTS IMPORTS OF CITRUS FRUITS AND SOME FISH FROM TAIWAN
Expecting a barrage of these headlines through the day
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Off the 75bp hike, small fry, an hour ago or so the Argentinians showed us how to do it, hiking 800bp to take interest rates to 60%
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With 36 estimates in and some adjusting for Friday's BLS reweights - The distribution in economists calls for US CPI - median is 5.5%, with the range of 5.7% to 5.2%
* Cleveland Fed Nowcast and CPI fixings at 5.6%
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🇦🇺Trader thoughts - RBA review 👊🏻
The market was pricing a 12% chance of a hike today, but the
#RBA
have cared little and brought an explicit tightening bias
🧨Instant reaction to what has gone down in the Aussie rates, AUDUSD, AUD cross rates + the downside move in the ASX200
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Am I the only person who has no idea who Salt Bae is? 🤷🏻
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Trader thoughts - a big day for the day traders who have had to react to some huge reversals post
#CPI
report
What caused the moves? That's the subject of debate but positioning, hedging flows & liquidity are core factors
A look around at some lively moves across markets
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*JAPAN 4Q GDP -6.3% ON ANNUALIZED BASIS; EST. -3.8%, *JAPAN 4Q BUSINESS SPENDING -3.7% Q/Q; EST. -1.6%, *JAPAN 4Q NOMINAL GDP -1.2% Q/Q; EST. -0.6%
Bit of a miss here....
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