The Eyewall
@TheEyewallWx
Followers
9,087
Following
111
Media
228
Statuses
637
No-hype coverage of tropical storms, hurricanes, and extreme weather from the meteorologists at @SpaceCityWx in Houston.
Joined April 2023
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
$GME
• 590532 Tweets
Cohen
• 252724 Tweets
Aziz Yıldırım
• 83722 Tweets
Villa
• 73477 Tweets
GameStop
• 66866 Tweets
Martinez
• 63947 Tweets
Diaz
• 58540 Tweets
Ali Koç
• 58518 Tweets
Gomez
• 48780 Tweets
Roaring Kitty
• 40719 Tweets
Mourinho
• 38569 Tweets
gracie
• 36823 Tweets
सुशील मोदी
• 36421 Tweets
GPT-4o
• 34137 Tweets
Atiku
• 29614 Tweets
$AMC
• 29416 Tweets
LEE KNOW AT GUCCI LONDRA
• 27941 Tweets
Tuberville
• 23094 Tweets
DIAMOND HANDS
• 21307 Tweets
सुशील कुमार मोदी
• 18627 Tweets
Vitor Roque
• 16672 Tweets
#KızılGoncalar
• 15201 Tweets
#AVLLIV
• 14829 Tweets
Aleaga
• 13362 Tweets
Meek
• 13076 Tweets
Lamine
• 12767 Tweets
Bronny
• 12653 Tweets
Assassin's Creed Shadows
• 11502 Tweets
John Fury
• 11204 Tweets
Watkins
• 10198 Tweets
Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
Welcome to The Eyewall! We are are Matt (
@mattlanza
) and Eric (
@SciGuySpace
), the meteorologists that brought you
@SpaceCityWX
. We are bringing that style of coverage to all Atlantic storms.
Read more about our goals and why we exist:
6
50
203
We’ve picked up a bunch of new followers over the last couple weeks so a quick intro:
The Eyewall is an independent, ad-free weather source run by meteorologists
@mattlanza
and
@sciguyspace
from Houston. We operate the popular
@SpaceCityWX
site for no-hype Houston weather info.
5
19
204
As promised, a post that tackles the question of whether big Gulf hurricanes of recent years are a “new normal” or just a fluke. The research is fascinating and complex. Matt spoke to several researchers and read several papers.
5
50
163
Thanks for bringing us to 5,000 followers in 3 weeks. We hope to become part of your go-to sources for tropical storms, hurricanes, and eventually other extreme weather.
1
6
154
The NHC has tagged an area is the far East Atlantic as one to watch over the next week for possible development. There are actually a number of things to keep tabs on, including that one. We will walk through all of them tomorrow morning.
2
15
152
Hurricane Hilary is likely to bring an extreme rain and potential flooding event to interior southern California and Nevada. As a blog based in Houston, we know a few things about floods and want folks in those areas to take this seriously.
Our update:
11
42
146
We have a Friday afternoon update on Hilary's potential. Not to dismiss forecast uncertainties, but for all intents & purposes, folks in the California desert and perhaps portions of W Arizona & Nevada should *expect* to experience a historic rain event.
3
44
124
A few comments on our site. First, please let us know if you liked our coverage of Idalia and what you want to see more of/less of. Second, we will probably be maintaining a presence after hurricane season and touching on bigger weather events of all stripes. Stay tuned.
14
4
121
A few thoughts.
1.) All reliable modeling continues to show Lee staying comfortably away from land through early next week.
2.) Florida is not at risk from a hit on any reliable model.
3.) The Windy app should not be used as a “forecast” for hurricanes.
3
12
111
Thank you all for your kind words and support in our opening days. We will have a quick update on Arlene tomorrow, then take Sunday off. Look for stuff next week on season predictions, June climatology, and more. Spread the word about us. Gulf coast, Atlantic coast, Caribbean.
0
11
112
We have a Sunday update on Hilary, which is still expected to bring severe rain & flooding to the desert today, in addition to winds and power outages (charge your phones!). We also have an update on the Gulf & TX rain & the next one to watch.
Details:
1
19
106
We continue to watch a very rare mid-June deep Atlantic system that is becoming more likely to develop in the coming days. We explain what to watch as it comes west and how that may impact the Caribbean.
3
15
99
Thanks for everyone's support in our inaugural year. We are going to keep posting semi-regularly about other weather across the country. We'd like to continue growing our audience during the winter, so keep spreading the word! What else would you like to see between now & May?
10
6
90
Taking a day off today from posting and videos, but just a quick note. None of the storms out there are notable from a land impact POV right now. Idalia may eventually get to Canada as a gale-type storm. The area off Africa though merits very close watching. 1/2
1
2
92
A Gulf tropical wave (Invest 91L) has a shot to develop before coming ashore with rain in South Texas on Tuesday. Meanwhile, TS
#Franklin
is poised to bring significant rain to the Dominican Republic before lifting into the Atlantic.
More on it all:
2
10
85
Recent speculation on social media about the flooding seen in Dubai this week has been full of terrible takes. Here, we explain what happened, why it was extremely predictable, and why cloud seeding didn’t cause the flooding.
6
21
86
A lot to unpack today:
*First ever "high risk" for excessive rain in the California low desert as Hilary comes north.
*Gulf system will track toward S Texas with most rain S of I-10 or offshore.
*Atlantic remains unsettled and noisy.
Read about it here:
4
24
86
On the plus side, TD 10 doesn’t look a whole lot better organized this morning. On the negative side, this could mean shorter-term track fluctuations that could impact the later forecast period, keeping a fairly wide swath of Florida having to stay tuned in.
4
5
84
Bret has formed in the Atlantic. It remains on course for the Caribbean with continued uncertainty on both track and intensity. The current NHC forecast probably represents a higher end risk at this time. Interests in the Antilles& Puerto Rico should continue to monitor.
3
20
84
Our Saturday update touches on the two main stories: Hilary and the Gulf. Hilary continues to look like an exceptionally serious flooding threat for the deserts of California, and folks in those areas should be prepared for significant disruption.
Read:
4
24
81
A rather grim evening update on
#Idalia
, which is forecast to arrive in Apalachee Bay in the morning as a category 4 hurricane with catastrophic storm surge in the Big Bend and portions of the bay. Details on the many varying impacts in our post:
5
34
82
The
@NHC_Atlantic
has bumped up chances of development to 70% with now declared “Invest 92L” as it comes west across the Atlantic over the next 5 days or so. Many questions remain in terms of where a center develops, how strong, etc.
3
16
79
If any news organizations in the Southeast want to freely syndicate any of our Idalia content, please send us an email (matt at spacecityweather dot com) or the contact us form here.
1
14
68
Welcome to the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Our first update post discusses the season and Invest 91L. Key points:
-91L has a 50% chance of developing into a TD or weak TS.
-The main concern is locally heavy rain & flash flooding in Florida.
Details:
2
24
74
A lot of little things to watch but no slam dunk cases for definitive development over the next 7 to 10 days. The primary story may end up being rain next week from a fairly disorganized Gulf disturbance in TX or LA.
Read about it all:
4
8
77
We will be back on Monday with a pretty in depth post on where El Niño stands right now and what it may mean for winter across North America. Check in tomorrow AM!
2
22
49
Hope you’ve enjoyed our opening days of posts. If you have, make sure to let your friends and family know on the East Coast, eastern Gulf, Caribbean, Central America, and Canada! Thanks for riding along with us.
2
5
70
Here's our Monday update on
#Invest95L
, which is likely to develop in the next couple days and become Tropical Storm and eventually Hurricane Lee. It *should* go north of the islands, but it remains a close call. We explain.
3
15
71
Worth monitoring through the next few days as it comes west.
There is a high chance of a tropical depression forming next week over the tropical Atlantic. For more information, visit .
60
671
2K
5
4
69
Here's a Sunday update for you. We are going to keep a close eye on Invest 95L over the next few days as it comes west. It has enough uncertainty and potential this week to monitor for the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. We explain what's up:
1
7
65
A lot to unpack today! Potential Atlantic systems, a Gulf system w/ complicated rain chances in Texas, and a hurricane that will hit Baja and bring potentially major rainfall to California, Arizona, Nevada, and Utah next week. We explain it all:
2
5
62
This offer also stands for any news organizations in New England or Canada that want to syndicate any of our Lee content.
If any news organizations in the Southeast want to freely syndicate any of our Idalia content, please send us an email (matt at spacecityweather dot com) or the contact us form here.
1
14
68
1
9
58
The situation with salt water creeping up the Mississippi River in Louisiana is complex and one that does not look likely to be helped much over the next 2 to 3 weeks in any meaningful capacity. Read the rainfall outlook here:
#lawx
8
16
53
The Atlantic looks a bit more interesting next week, and although a *big* system isn't likely, something could develop, which would be odd for June. Details on what we're watching here:
3
8
59
Here’s our Wednesday evening video update on
#Lee
and where it may go and why uncertainty is so high next week. No hype or clickbait. Just sober explanations of exactly what we are looking at.
2
7
57
Good morning! TD 2 is struggling with wind shear and may even attain "naked swirl" status today. Today's post explains what's up, the reason for 2's funky track, and more on rain chances in Florida.
Check it here:
1
6
57
NHC surge forecast getting truly ugly for the Big Bend of Florida; now predicting as much as 10-15 feet of water above ground level. That is truly life-threatening and catastrophic.
3
27
56
Today's post talks more in depth about why the GFS fantasyland system is unlikely but why the overall pattern looks at least a little interesting. We also hit part 3 of our seasonal outlook and discuss how serious Atlantic water temps are.
2
11
54
Happy Thanksgiving from The Eyewall to you! Thank you to those of you who have embraced us in our inaugural year. We are grateful for your support and readership! Here’s to a quiet weekend of weather for you.
1
0
54
Hurricane Lee continues to fluctuate in intensity. It remains no risk to Florida. It does remain a storm to watch farther north though, particularly in Bermuda, Atlantic Canada, and New England. But we still have more questions than answers. Read more:
2
9
53
160 mph.
Hurricane
#Lee
Advisory 11: Lee Becomes a Category 5 Hurricane. Dangerous Beach Conditions Expected to Develop Around the Western Atlantic Through Early Next Week.
73
1K
3K
4
6
54
We will be back soon with some more consistent posts about winter weather. There’s a lot of bad information floating around out there. Try not to stumble in too deep on anyone spreading bold proclamations about winter weather.
6
2
52
Today, we talk
#Bretxit
. As Bret moves into the Caribbean graveyard, it will begin to fall apart. Behind Bret is Cindy, which will be fun to watch, as it is a nothingburger to any land masses. Details on the storms here:
1
9
51
Tropical Storm
#Bret
is a feisty one but it should peak today before steadily weakening in the Caribbean. It will bring gusty winds, rough seas, and heavy rain/flash flooding between about Dominica and Grenada in the Lesser Antilles.
A full rundown:
2
10
52
The system off the East Coast this weekend will be mostly a nuisance more than a destructive storm, but it's noteworthy how many gauges are already forecast to be in minor (orange) to moderate (red) tidal flooding this weekend
1
6
50
A fairly aggressive forecast from the NHC for TD 3. Folks in the islands are encouraged to continue monitoring the progress of
#td3
as it comes west.
Tropical Depression
#Three
Advisory 1: Tropical Depression Three Forms Over the Central Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles Should Monitor This System.
15
265
678
1
8
50
Quick midnight ET update on
#Bret
. Looking decent this evening. Clearly still in the organizing phase but I mean for June? Man.
1
6
50
TD 6 formed in the middle of the Atlantic. It is not long for this world.
3
5
50
Tropical Storm
#Lee
will rapidly intensify as it likely tracks north of the Caribbean islands. Beyond that? Great question. Lots of players on the field that will influence how Lee runs its offense, but we don't know how they look yet.
We explain:
3
7
48
Invest 95L is very close to becoming a depression or Tropical Storm Lee. It is going to put on a show in the Atlantic this week, while likely staying north of the Caribbean islands. Bermuda should keep tabs on this, however. Details here:
4
3
47
Tomorrow we will have an update on the upcoming storms for the East, as well as an explainer on the polar vortex and why there’s so much hype this year, as well as if it’s warranted. Our job is to slow walk you through this stuff, not jump to overhyped conclusions.
1
3
49
Our Monday evening update focuses on surge and wind impacts from
#Idalia
. Like many, we are concerned about the severity of storm surge in the Big Bend, with no comparable modern storm of this forecast intensity. Preps need to be finished by morning.
2
8
48
As we inch closer to hurricane season, we take a look at where things stand. Expect seasonal outlooks to predict a very active season, and that seems well supported by data. We explain:
1
12
49
Tomorrow morning we will update the tropics and also have an update on a bit of a temporary pattern change across the country. Rain for parts of Texas, snow in Utah, and cooler temps to come.
3
2
47
We continue to see an area in the far north Atlantic that is showing increasing signs that it will develop later this week or weekend. Outside of that, things remain fairly uneventful, despite a few robust tropical waves from time to time. More:
0
6
45
Any chance of Lee not impacting land eventually seems to be fading. Folks in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada will want to watch this closely.
While the deterministic models will garner most of the attention (closer to the US), the ensemble members are still holding further east into the Canadian Maritimes.
#Lee
's exact track isn't set in stone but for now we can reasonably assume that OTS is off the table.
0
6
31
1
15
46
We've been saying that next week has a slightly better chance at tropical systems developing, but what does that actually mean? We break down what's at play in today's post.
0
9
46
We are a month away from the start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. You may have heard that there will be some changes and product enhancements this year. We review some key items that are new or changing and offer a quick forecast update:
5
6
46
Yes, the rumors are true: A significant winter storm is likely this weekend on the East Coast. But there are a lot of questions as to who sees mostly snow or mostly mixing. We walk through what the modeling says and what it might mean.
3
6
46
The Eyewall is (currently) unsponsored and not funded. Our parent site, Space City Weather has an annual fundraiser with merch and a donation option. If you feel inclined to contribute to our work, you have that option for a limited time:
It's time. For rain. And our annual site fundraiser! New & classic shirts, hats, umbrellas, and more. We're grateful for your support!
Merch shop:
Oh, and the weather looks wet.
@mattlanza
with details on that:
11
23
140
1
14
45
Here's a Saturday evening update on Tropical Depression 10, a hurricane threat to Florida this coming week and also a rainmaker for the Southeast. Details on what we're looking at here:
1
6
45
The tropics look mostly quiet, though the NHC has highlighted an area near the <checks notes> Azores for a low chance. Today's post talks what's normal for June & dives in some on "fantasyland" noise. Read all about it:
0
3
45
The Atlantic is about to get busy, but whether or not it results in anything coherent is another matter entirely. We explain what's up and briefly touch on the Bahamas tropical wave in today's post.
0
6
44
While we don't see anything in the Atlantic tropics right now that's expected to develop, we will note the area of storms along and off the Mexico and Texas coasts. It illustrates why we so often say "...but it's a good idea to keep tabs on the Gulf!"
1
4
44
Bret is gone. Cindy lingers. We will have an update tomorrow on Cindy’s future and some model “noise” in the longer range that probably isn’t too serious.
0
1
44
Signs of the expected north turn from Lee now showing up on the NHC forecast. Hopefully that allows some folks to relax a little in Florida.
2
1
44
Given Florida’s geography and the angle of approach of Idalia, it’s critical to keep this in mind. It won’t take much to make this worse for some areas. Prepare accordingly.
1
12
43
After a viral video emerged over the weekend of a Tennessee tornado seeming to dissipate after causing an explosion at a power substation, we take a look at some of the conversation around it and the science of what may have occurred.
2
11
43
Hurricane Lee is on track to bring widespread wind and surge to eastern New England and Atlantic Canada, with a particular concern around surge impacts in the Bay of Fundy and Nova Scotia. We hammer out the latest:
2
16
43
There is growing consensus on development and track of an eastern Gulf system next week, but as we discuss today there may be some hurdles for this thing. Elsewhere, Franklin is struggling to battle shear right now in the Atlantic.
More:
1
6
43
#Franklin
will work NE, then back north over the coming days. Bermuda & Atlantic Canada should keep tabs. Meanwhile, Gulf development odds next week are up to 50%. Today we explain the model forecasts and tell you what we know about this area.
2
4
43
The Colorado State hurricane forecast is extremely active.
Atlantic seasonal
#hurricane
forecast from
@ColoradoStateU
calls for very active season: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes & 5 major hurricanes. Extremely warm tropical Atlantic and likely
#LaNina
are the primary reasons.
24
433
738
4
4
42
We've got a full overview of Lidia's impacts in Mexico, as well as how much rain to expect from all this tropical moisture in the Gulf and Southern US Today's post also discusses what to expect from the big Central U.S. storm later this week.
Read it all:
2
8
35
#Idalia
is about to make landfall as a category 4 hurricane in Florida in Taylor County, north of Steinhatchee. Catastrophic surge is underway, and Perry, FL (pop ~7k) may take the brunt of the wind. Slightly higher tides forecast for Charleston too.
4
9
41
Big rains headed for Louisiana where recent extremes may put a damper on crawfish harvests. Meanwhile, winter takes a hiatus next week. The upcoming hurricane season has caught the eye of some, so we explain what the data shows this far out and more.
2
3
42
#Lee
is likely a category 5 storm this evening. It should stabilize and fluctuate in intensity. Beyond the weekend, while the track remains uncertain, Lee will be a different storm than it is now, not without hazards but not this beast. Video update:
3
7
41
Here is a Sunday evening update on Tropical Storm Idalia. Storm surge and hurricane watches are now posted for much of Florida's west coast. We break down the expected impacts and discuss some of the remaining uncertainty this evening.
1
11
41
Recent hurricane season rumblings have struck a nerve with some folks, rightfully so! Today,
@mattlanza
takes a look at where we stand and what we can actually realistically say about the upcoming hurricane season in mid to late February. Our checkup:
1
13
41
Apologies for the delay on tonight's video update...toddlers and toilet paper, name a better combination. Here's an update on
#Lee
and what we'll be looking at over the next few days.
3
1
40
Look our first actual weather-related post a bit later this morning (around 11 ET/10 CT) as we discuss Invest 91L in the Gulf off Florida.
1
6
40
Good morning! We bid adieu to TS
#Arlene
in today's post (which isn't quite gone yet, but it will be soon). We also have the latest on Florida rain, where a flood watch continues from Miami through the Palm Beaches and inland.
1
1
40
We are watching Invest 95L, a tropical wave in the Atlantic between the Caribbean and Africa that has about a 40% chance of developing through next week. Nothing to worry about yet but definitely worth watching.
Explaining what's at play today:
0
4
40
We will have an update posted on the site around 5:30-6 this evening and a video update out a little later.
1
1
38
We will have an evening update out on Hurricane Hilary and more on the rain risk in the Southwest US.
1
0
40
Today we're discussing a system that could form in the Central Atlantic Ocean, and blazing hot temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.
1
1
38
A very good read here. We're often asked what model to believe. And the reality is that the NHC is still the best, and it's why we use them heavily.
There's a new hurricane model on the scene, and National Hurricane Center forecasts are getting better than ever. Here's your guide to storm guidance as we approach peak season.
@CC_Yale
1
24
57
1
9
40
Good morning! Tropical Storm Bret is dealing with wind shear and dry air that is inhibiting it some. Bret will work toward the Windward Islands today with some impacts tomorrow. We explain what it all means for the Caribbean islands in our morning update:
2
7
38
We have compiled your complete eclipse weather forecast guide, as well as lots of links for ways to participate in the eclipse virtually if you can't travel or end up clouded in. Read that and our Texas to Canada forecast here:
0
12
39
You can pretty clearly see the shear impacting Arlene as it meets its demise near Cuba. Fun satellite image though.
2
2
39
An intricate ballet between Invest 91L and TS Philippe complicates the Atlantic forecast a bit over the next several days, though impacts to the islands look modest right now in the majority of outcomes. We explain what's up here:
2
2
39
#Lee
exploded into a category 5 storm that will fluctuate in intensity in the coming days. Lee will tap the brakes east of the Turks & Caicos next week before making a hard right turn north. From there? A delicate ballet.
Details:
5
8
39
In today's post we discuss Tropical Storm Bret and the extreme sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic that are fueling this unusual early season activity.
1
3
38
We are watching Invests 92L and 93L in the deep Atlantic. Today, we break down 92L's possible future and impact in the islands. While a large storm in the Caribbean is not likely, interests in the islands should be monitoring its progress.
Details:
1
2
38
Most of all, thanks for reading and supporting this. With so much noise out there, we seek to be the antithesis to loud headlines, ALL CAPS YOUTUBE VIDEOS, and rampant misinformation in weather forecasting. We’ll see you through that storm too.
3
2
37
Where there’s a will, there’s a way, and TD 2 found a way to become Arlene, the first named storm of the season. No forecast changes.
Tropical Depression Two has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
#Arlene
in the Gulf of Mexico. No change to the forecast and no significant threat to land. See for details.
49
557
1K
1
4
38
So, we've got a Friday evening tropical update for you. Not sure how well we'll be able to keep up with this all season, but we'll do these when we can! Also find it on TikTok and Instagram.
4
1
38
It's looking pretty quiet in the Atlantic for awhile longer. We've got some comments on what's up and what to expect over the next couple weeks.
0
2
37
We will have a post out either later today or on Tuesday morning that will discuss the upcoming weather pattern to close January, some recent hurricane research, and an early vibes check on the 2024 hurricane season.
2
1
36
The bottom line is that if you live in Florida, including the Tampa area, today is the last full day to make preparations for the impending storm.
4
14
37