Teis Knuthsen
@TeisKnuthsen
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CIO, Financial Investments at Kirk Kapital. Global macro nerd and TAA fan.
[email protected] +45 31139452
Joined October 2012
The big cycle in interest rates: 40 years up, 40 years down.
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One reason why industry has been at odds with consumer speding is a very significant inventory drawdown. If growth doesn't slow now, then not only will production pick up, but so will inventories.
A really important chart illustrating how companies globally were winding down their inventories in Q2 at a rate not seen since the global financial crisis as demand weakens. Clearly disinflationary. Read more at https://t.co/i20sOedtI2
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Will stock markets yield to bonds again, as in February? Hop topic this summer!
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Something has changed: US economic surprises - measuring the momentum of economic outcomes agains forecasts - have risen to new highs.
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What needs to happen for Western companies to stop having commerciel relationships with Russia? Does bombing pizza restaurants and killing children count? Can you be an SFDR Article 9 fund and include such companies?
theguardian.com
At least 56 people injured when Russian rocket hit packed restaurant in eastern city of Kramatorsk
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Perhaps our relationship with money has changed, but the 6% y/y drop in M1 - the biggest on record - would normally suggest that a recession was approaching.
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Forsvind, havvind, og sundhed. Læg det hele sammen og både renter og inflation vil stige i de kommende årtier. Ny kommentar i @borsendk:
borsen.dk
Tre nedslag i dansk politik i de seneste uger taler direkte ind i en af tidens helt store tendenser: Der investeres på livet løs i forsvar, energiomstilling og sundhedsvæsen. Der er gode argumenter fo
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The Swedish krona is now extremely undervalued vs. $ and €. We should all pile into Swedish assets here, but what to buy? Hit me!
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Perhaps somewhat obvious, but still an important statement from @bankofengland's Bailey and Pill: "We are no longer following our models". Applies to other central banks as well. Now we just need to weed out the r* nonsense! Ping @KennethPraefke
https://t.co/S5YV0Ytbsj
ft.com
Governor Andrew Bailey admits central bank no longer following its own model when predicting price rises
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Nvidia revenue, light blue is the company's guidance, amazing! You never pay enough for tech-winners!
Nvidia revenue outlook confirms AI bonanza $NVDA https://t.co/tcErqpXT5H via @saxobank
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Hvis inflationen ikke kommer ned, så gør renterne det nok heller ikke.
#Inflation Jeg er blevet interviewet til Berlingske om løn og inflation. Her forklarer jeg vores holdning om, at de kommende lønstigninger i Danmark på ca. 10% over 2023-24 ikke er foreneligt med en stabil, lav inflation på længere sigt.
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Inflationen kom som forventet - og den kommer ikke ned igen. Ny kommentar i @berlingske @ThomasBerntH: https://t.co/CX8iT3f2qt
berlingske.dk
Inflationen falder i år, og mange håber på et fornyet rentefald. Den store fortælling er imidlertid, at inflation og renter vil stige de næste 20-30 år som følge af en ændret demografisk udvikling og...
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ChatGPT has changed the world. It does lack in some areas, but my favorite use case is leveraging it to teach me things twice as fast. Here are the 10 best prompts to learn anything faster:
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Negative renter kommer ikke igen. Ny kommentar i @borsendk:
borsen.dk
Danmarks Nationalbank hævede i sidste uge renten med 0,25 procentpoint. Renteforhøjelsen er den syvende siden juli sidste år, og den pengepolitiske styrerente er nu forøget med hele 3,45 procentpoint.
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Record high container traffic at still lower prices: global supply chain pressures are a thing of the past.
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1/22 This is Svetlana Maniovich. She is your guide to the world of extreme Russian glamour. She radiates richness. Diamonds, furs, Rolls Royces - she has it all and more. In summer you can find her in St Tropez where she rents a villa for €150k/month, or on a yacht in Naples🧵
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Bonds are back. There is once more decent yield to be had in European credit bonds.
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Fat and flat. Global equities, measured in EUR, haven't really been going anywhere for the past year. NB: Chart includes dividends.
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European equities are (almost) back at the 2021 high, a remarkable performance, all things considered. Was October the trough for global equities?
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