Conch Shell Capital
@TMTMoats
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I Talk About the TMT Sector & Deconstructing the Investment Process. Covering TMT for 20+ years. All Views/Opinions are not Investment Advice.
NYC
Joined March 2023
Major SAAS names ranked based on their resilience to AI, per Mizuho: “To identify where the mispricing is sharpest, we developed the Mizuho Software AI Resilience Framework, a proprietary tool evaluating structural moats and AI exposure across our coverage, overlaying stock
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Empirical Research on software SBC “Stock based compensation is just another proxy for growth”
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Good discussion - I thought this quote from the interview was interesting "About half of S&P companies when reporting Q4 earnings, they talked about AI in the quest for efficiency and productivity. Only 10% of companies specifically attached that to a use case, but only 1% of
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BoA's Subramanian goes through a list of reasons we should expect lower P/Es "even in Software". They are disruption, coming equity glut, strong EPS growth = compressed multiples, asset intensity & financial leverage worsening, and index risk from private hiccups. I'll go
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Bloomberg published the most important article this week of 2026 so far. $EWY "RAMmageddon" a global memory chip shortage that is now hammering profits across every tech sector from smartphones to gaming consoles. Key figures from the piece: - Hyperscaler capex est. $650B in
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One thing to keep in mind for this interview - the individual is a Portfolio Strategist, not a Software Analyst. https://t.co/6FWNzTgy9Q
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The latest GS pod is a good listen if you're trying to make sense of the software selloff in a historical context. Goldman studied two disruption analogs - newspapers in the 2000s and tobacco in the 1990s - here's what they found: • The timeline doesn't match: In both cases,
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Tech valuations are back to historical averages vs the S&P 500 - but don't confuse cheap with mispriced. The market may be saying: earnings revisions are peaking, and a capex-heavy Tech sector deserves a lower multiple than the cash-rich one we grew up with.
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Excellent insights in the latest letter from Christopher Smith and the Artisan Focus Fund team. One takeaway from the letter: Growth isn't a silver bullet for overpayment. As the chart illustrates, 30% sales growth only yields market-level returns if your entry multiple exceeds
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Private-equity barons have a giant AI problem - Their leveraged bets on the software industry may soon cause big trouble (source the Economist)
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Everyone has been saying for years that "Data is the new Oil." I didn't realize they meant the 2014 energy credit cycle specifically...
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Despite AI fears software revenue growth is actually improving
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Great question in the tweet below👇🏼. it used to be table stakes to have read a few of the investment canons. It has now become an advantage as most don't read anymore. Or they ask their algos for the TLDR. Competitively, it is a real blessing. Neo-boomers like me, who were
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Always enjoy @plaffont interviews - here are the key points I took down • OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX could all become trillion-dollar companies • The "Mag 7" (or largest companies) changes every 10 years with 25-30% turnover • "The world is moving to the token economy -
.@plaffont believes the world is moving toward a token economy. 💸 On @CNBC’s Squawk Box, Philippe discussed Coatue’s investment in @AnthropicAI and how intelligence is becoming a core economic input. Watch his convo with @JoeSquawk and @andrewrsorkin: https://t.co/tQI8SQmioF
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The Allure of Chinese Tech Stocks. A Pro Picks 7 Names.
barrons.com
Tekne Capital founder Beeneet Kothari discusses China’s edge in AI—and the nation’s coming IPO boom. Why Samsung is among his favorite stocks.
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Samsung thesis from Beeneet Kothari (Tekne Capital founder, Druckenmiller protégé): • The Hidden Asset: $800B company trading on memory, but 2nd largest foundry (after TSMC) sitting dormant—market missing the story • The Catalyst: Elon's ecosystem (SpaceX, Tesla, xAI) couldn't
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