Summit Global Strategies
@SummitGlobal1
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Optimistic capitalist. Understanding what’s important. Explaining it. Fixing it.
Washington, DC
Joined October 2017
Too Big To Fail keeps getting bigger. https://t.co/WDMNhPj8em via @ft
ft.com
Moves to allow higher leverage and overhaul stress tests have driven increase in market capitalisation
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The other side of the China tech dominance narrative: Beijing’s gains are coming at a steep cost, with the state’s heavy-handedness in directing investments wasting colossal amounts of money. via @WSJ
wsj.com
A self-sufficiency push has made China a tougher competitor to the U.S., but it comes with enormous waste.
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It’s funny how supply & demand sorta work. “An influx of new, luxury real estate developments is pushing down rents in several cities across the U.S. As new units come online, owners of older rentals are dropping prices to lure new tenants.”
bloomberg.com
Rents got cheaper in several major cities this past year, thanks to an influx of luxury apartment buildings opening their doors and luring tenants to vacate their old homes.
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Rate cuts into this? U.S. GDP for Q3 comes in much stronger than expected at 4.3% vs 3.3% expected—consumption at 3.5% vs 2.7% exp. Core PCE inflation came in at 2.9%, WAY above the Fed's 2% target!
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Shirley Gathers is a national treasure. So proud to have served with her. Thank you for your service! 🙌
At this year’s @USTreasury Christmas Reception, it was my privilege to present Shirley E. Gathers with the Hamilton Award, the highest recognition that the Treasury Secretary can bestow on a Treasury employee. With a career spanning more than four decades and six Secretaries,
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Economic weather forecast: “hazy.” via @djheakin
“Inflation continues to fall, wages continue to rise, and America is trending towards a historic economic boom, ” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. Uh, hold that thought. A closer look at the data raises some real questions.
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2/2 So the Fed must believe: -there's a more meaningful downside risk to output--i.e., a sizeable hidden output gap, or -expect inflation to just fall the last mile all on its own. Yet, funny, nobody's saying that out loud.
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1/2 The current "rate cuts no matter what" approach to monetary policy is a cipher, given that: -Inflation has been well above target & persistent for ~5 years -GDP growth is solid -Fiscal policy is highly expansionary & -Labor markets are soft but not showing meaningful distress
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“America’s greatest enemy is itself — losing faith in its core values and its fighting spirit…That’s exactly what plays into China’s ancient art of war: defeating you without waging war, because you’ll defeat yourself.”
I wrote about the gap in superpower perception betwn US and China — overconfidence in the rising power&defeatism in the incumbent and how China’s overconfidence is magnified both by Trump downplaying geopolitical rivalry and by media acclaim in the West
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Clarity in the fog: all the year over year measures of inflation are over the Fed’s inflation target.
While there is a broad-based slowing among some the near-term measures of underlying CPI inflation, all the year-over-year measures on the dashboard are still elevated relative to the FOMC's price stability mandate. See more: https://t.co/Vz0MALYJqA.
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Like my mother used to say: "once you get to the top, there's place left to go but down."
⅓ of top 1% US income earners as indicated by tax returns, fall out a year later and ⅔ are absent a decade later. Over two decades, income variability reduces the top .01% income share by 30% (20% using retained earnings in place of volatile capital gains).
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Today's #CPI report is like a big chunk of swiss cheese🧀—so full of holes I can see right through it. More air, than cheese. More noise, than signal. So I'll keep looking through for some real data next month.
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Vibecession: “the sharp contrast between consumer sentiment and economic activity remains unsettling.” via @rbrtrmstrng
The economy is fine and everyone hates it https://t.co/tS15btS1Nx | opinion
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It’s funny how banks don’t want people to put money in the bank anymore.
JPMorgan launches tokenized money-market fund on Ethereum: WSJ
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It's funny to see the transfer portal is still open for team transitory. https://t.co/mKJTcHFZqR
#axiosmacro
axios.com
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2/2 Who knows, maybe the market is finally marking to the unsustainable debt load, and inflation never returning to 2%. Or maybe it's something else.
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1/2 Why are long-term interest rates going up when the Fed is cutting rates? via @apolloglobal
apolloacademy.com
Why are long-term interest rates going up when the Fed is cutting rates, see the first chart? Is the market...
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2/2 So it's either taking twice the amount of power to produce the same level of GDP, or a massive amount of underutilized capacity.
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1/2 China now has more than double the U.S. electicity generation capacity. https://t.co/cioYzcDeAn via @WSJ
wsj.com
Government push for power supremacy transforms Inner Mongolia. Tech leaders worry about a U.S.-China “electron gap.”
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Returning to this clever article via @gave_vincent. It points out the paradox that sanctions made outside investors believe that China was uninvestible, yet China’s actual financial performance (especially bonds) nontheless showed strong investibility. #ironic
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