Seth Walder
@SethWalder
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ESPN Sports Analytics Writer. DMs open.
Brooklyn
Joined October 2009
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Pinned Tweet
Long overdue refresh of the NFL analytics staffer list after an offseason with plenty of movement.
As always, this is to the best of my understanding based on both what teams list and conversations with analytics folks around the league.
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Text from an NBA analytics staffer tonight: "Houston got more firsts for Robert Covington than it did for DeAndre Hopkins."
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My wife, who had never heard of Saint Peter’s 10 days ago, just referred to Ndefo as “probably our best player.”
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ah yes, the key to josh allen's success: the 2.25 quarters he sat behind nathan peterman
Starting Anthony Richardson game 1 is a mistake, let him learn from others errors first. The majority of great QB’s don’t start right away:
Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Rodgers, Jackson, etc...
The exception is Burrow, who went 15-0 his senior year.
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Bengals finished with a 14% pass block win rate, the worst by any team in any game this season.
(ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)
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Uh, Hopkins
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The Giants are mathematically alive for both the playoffs and the No. 2 overall pick in the draft.
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Cooper Kupp's route chart (left) vs. Ja'Marr Chase's route chart (right)
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
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In an incredible turnaround: Justin Fields now has the highest QBR this season among NFC North quarterbacks.
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Josh Allen's 13.6 MPH at the time of throw on the TD pass to Stefon Diggs is the fastest a QB has been running on a completion of at least 50 air yards in the Next Gen Stats era, since 2016.
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Patrick Mahomes ran a total of 497 yards before his passes/sacks tonight per
@NextGenStats
.
That's the most pre-throw/pre-sack yards run by any quarterback in any game this season.
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Bills offensive EPA/P ranks
Weeks 1-10: 3rd
Weeks 11-18: 6th
The Bills fired their OC ten weeks into the season, but from that point on, they played like a different team 📈
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I cannot stress enough how deeply irrational and embarrassing it would be for the Chargers and Raiders to not tie.
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Josh Allen recorded a 98.5 Total QBR tonight.
That's the best postseason QBR game in the metric's history (since 2006).
Previous record was Tom Brady's 98.0 against the Jaguars in the 2007 divisional round.
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This is an NFL general manager demonstrating an extraordinary lack of understanding of basic football statistics.
Dave Gettleman: "People say it's a passing league, I get that...but the the top four teams were not in the playoffs, the top four rushing teams were in the playoffs"
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Film twitter: who *should* have gone with Kelce on this touchdown?
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The Rams have 79 passing yards.
78 of those have come on plays when Jamal Adams has been the nearest defender to the target, per
@NextGenStats
.
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Max speeds on the interception, per
@NextGenStats
:
Budda Baker 21.27 MPH
DK Metcalf 22.64 MPH
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PJ Walker's touchdown pass to DJ Moore had an air distance of 67.6 yards -- the longest air distance completion in the Next Gen Stats era, since 2016.
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Two notable players with a 0% pass rush win rate this season:
Tyree Wilson
Khalil Mack
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I cannot believe Justin Fields vs. QB at No. 1 is even a conversation.
A fourth-year QB who has never finished higher than 15th in QBR or an elite QB prospect on a fresh deal?
It's not a hard call. It's barely a choice at all!
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This is a brutal trade by the Broncos and a heist for the Seahawks.
The difference between 83 and 108 is worth roughly a sixth-round pick. To get a future third is incredible for Seattle -- not just by our pick valuations but relative to other trades tonight.
The Seahawks moved back in a trade with the Broncos, giving up the 83rd pick in exchange for a fourth (No. 108) and a 2024 third-rounder.
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Sauce Gardner was not targeted a single time as the nearest defender today, per
@NextGenStats
.
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Dak Prescott is now the sole favorite to win MVP at ESPN BET.
Prescott +175
Purdy +225
Hurts +650
Jackson +650
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Tua Tagovailoa ranks 8th in QBR this season, despite the Dolphins ranking last in pass block win rate.
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When Jamal Adams has been the nearest defender to the targeted receiver, the Patriots are 6-6 for 157 yards, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
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Top Super Bowl pass rush win rates
Chris Jones 21%
George Karlaftis 17%
Chase Young 15%
Nick Bosa 15%
Michael Danna 11%
(Min. 10 plays with win or loss)
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Geno Smith is 10th in QBR this season. Russell Wilson is 21st.
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Top 10 players in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle in Week 1 thus far.
(ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)
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The Bears posted an 88% pass block win rate today -- a very strong number.
League average on team level was 60% last season.
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I'm sure this will be devestating for Rams fans but the Bills finished the season as the No. 1 team in football, per FPI.
Final ratings, here.
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Creed Humphrey deserves OROY and I don't think it's even close.
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The entire reason the NFL doesn't schedule the times of the Week 18 games is to avoid the situation it just created by putting Lions/Packers on SNF.
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I think if the Eagles trade Carson Wentz they should be the ones sending picks.
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There's a new No. 1 in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle this season.
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Updated chance to win the Super Bowl, per FPI:
Chiefs 38%
49ers 32%
Titans 15%
Packers 7%
Texans 4%
Seahawks 3%
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Both things are true:
1. Sam Darnold was in a horrendous situation with the Jets.
2. If he were actually good he would not have finished 33rd out of 33 in QBR last year.
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Both Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow have 9% sack rates, which is very bad.
QBs play a large role in their sack rate. But there's also a pretty big difference here protection-wise: the Browns rank 4th in pass block win rate, and the Bengals rank 30th.
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The three players with the most pass rush wins in 2023 👀👀
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Giants' CB Adoree' Jackson as nearest defender today: 0 receptions allowed on 4 targets over 27 coverage snaps.
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
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Jaire Alexander played 31 coverage snaps and was the nearest defender on 3 targets per Next Gen Stats. The Rams had -3 yards on 1 reception when Alexander was nearest defender in the game.
h/t
@JMcTigue85
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Micah Parsons has 12 pressures today, per
@ESPNStatsInfo
.
That's the most by a player in a single game, as tracked by ESPN, since 2019 -- Nick Bosa and J.J. Watt each had a game with 12 that year.
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Hunter Renfrow safety dots! You can see here what they were talking about on the broadcast: Renfrow was suspicious before the snap and and that read let him make the play.
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
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This play is insane. Patrick Mahomes is moving 5.3 MPH at the time of throw here, per
@NextGenStats
.
Which wouldn't be that crazy if he weren't moving 5.3 MPH *to the left* as he threw to the *right*.
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49ers' CB Deommodore Lenoir as a nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats:
55 coverage snaps, 4 targets, 1 reception, 3 yards allowed.
Numbers-wise that's quite the debut for the 5th-round rookie.
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From an NFL analytics staffer this morning on first vs. second possession in playoff OT:
"Anyone that is very confident there is a clear option is probably wrong."
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Puka Nacua should be the OROY, imo.
I don't even really think it's close.
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"Sacks Created" is a stat where we credit the player who earned the first pass rush win on a sack play, rather than the player who finished the sack (it can be the same person).
Here are the 2022 leaders.
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25% pass rush win rate for Kayvon Thibodeaux today. Nice number for him.
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by law everyone who was upset at Dan Campbell must now attack Kyle Shanahan for that 4th down decision
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Top 10 pass rush win rate performances at Edge in Week 1 thus far.
T.J. Watt was 11th at 24%.
(ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)
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Another: you think analytics staffers choose to work in the NFL because of the *pay*?
Everyone needs data scientists. Who do you think pays more: the Raiders or Amazon?
The NFC Championship turned when Lions coach Dan Campbell opted not to kick a field goal (and in turn to take a three-score lead) with seven minutes left in the third quarter. There are lessons to be learned from that decision.
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Davis Mills recorded a Total QBR of 0.8 today. That's the worst QBR game of the last three seasons.
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this is a picture about a lack of public transportation infrastructure
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Daniel Jones recorded a QBR of 87.1 today.
He now has the 6th-best QBR this season with a 62.6.
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Surprise losses by Duke and Kansas yesterday opened up the race for the fourth No. 1 seed (with Villanova, Virginia and Purdue near-locks). Behind them, chance to earn a No. 1 seed, per BPI:
Tennessee: 24%
Duke: 22%
Auburn: 13%
Xavier: 13%
Michigan State: 11%
Kansas: 10%
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This makes the deal substantially worse for Houston
Added incentive for Stefon Diggs: As part of the Buffalo-Houston trade, the Texans wiped out the final three years on Diggs’ contract, giving him the ability to become a free agent after this season, league sources tell ESPN. The Texans also took the $3.5 million guaranteed to
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Top 10 players in pass rush win rate at edge in Week 1 thus far.
(ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)
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Sacks Created -- where we credit the person who first beat their blocker, as opposed to the person who finished the sack.
2020 Leaders:
Aaron Donald 19
Myles Garrett 16.5
T.J. Watt 14.5
Khalil Mack 13
Justin Houston 12
Emmanuel Ogbah 11
Carl Lawson 10.5
(ESPN/NGS)
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Aaron Donald is on his own planet.
Double team rate as a defensive tackle (x) by pass rush win rate as a defensive tackle (y), 2020 regular season.
(Y axis is overall PRWR, not just vs. double teams).
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Lamar Jackson recorded a 99.5 QBR last night, the highest QBR game of any QB this season.
Most career 99 or higher QBR games, last 15 seasons:
Lamar Jackson 4
Ryan Fitzpatrick 3
Six players tied at 2
h/t
@bbisinthehouse
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Offensive EPA/P leaders
1. Dolphins w/ Tua on field, 0.18
2. Chiefs, 0.17
3. Eagles, 0.15
4. Bills, 0.12
5. Bengals, 0.09
..
33. Dolphins w/out Tua on field, -0.11
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On plays with 0 pass rush wins -- meaning no defender beat his blocker within 2.5 seconds of the snap -- Carson Wentz has a QBR of 44. Dead last.
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absolutely here for punters posting EPA screenshots
I’m out!
Y’all keep me posted if a team claims me. The internet finds these things out before we do. 🙏
#AllGasNoBrakes
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Happy football.
Super Bowl prediction: Dolphins over Eagles.
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Highest pass rush win rates at defensive tackle in Week 4 thus far.
(ESPN / Next Gen Stats)
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Sauce Gardner as the nearest defender today, per
@NextGenStats
:
3 receptions allowed for 8 yards on 9 targets over 47 coverage snaps.
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Justin Fields' 95.3 QBR was the second-highest QBR game recorded this season.
It's the only one of the top 17 QBR games this year to have resulted in a loss.
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Highest pass rush win rates at Edge in Week 7, through the late afternoon window.
Best PRWR games from Ebiketie, Thibodeaux and Hutchinson so far.
(ESPN Analytics / NGS)
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Interior of Chiefs offensive line 👀👀
Joe Thuney and Trey Smith rank 4th and 8th in PBWR at guard, respectively.
Creed Humphrey ranks 3rd at C.
(ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)
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Justin Fields' high sack rate is mostly on him, not the Bears' offensive line.
Left: Fields' astronomical sack rate comes despite a strong Bears pass block win rate.
Right: Fields takes sacks late. He has only taken 5 sacks this year under the median sack time (4.29s).
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Seahawks should have a rightful gripe about the Week 18 scheduling order.
Not cool that NFL is messing with final week incentives.
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First win rate chart of the season!
Double team rate at edge (x) by pass rush win rate at edge (y).
Traffic jam at the bottom courtesy of Micah Parsons at the top!
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2021 Pass Rush Win Rate leaders
At edge: Myles Garrett
At defensive tackle: Aaron Donald
Overall, regardless of where lined up: Micah Parsons
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Highest pass rush win rates in the wild card round so far, regardless of alignment
Aidan Hutchinson 33%
Charles Omenihu 25%
Kobie Turner 23%
Derek Barnett 19%
Myjai Sanders 17%
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The Raiders are 4-3 after playing the hardest schedule in the NFL thus far, per FPI. They have the 25th-hardest schedule remaining.
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Dak Prescott has a QBR of 75.3 (2nd-best).
Jalen Hurts has a QBR of 63.5 (6th), with a better offensive line and better receivers.
What's the case for Hurts besides
#QBWinz
as MVP right now? I don't see it.
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The Dallas Cowboys are the third-worst team in football, according to FPI. Only ahead of the Jets and Jaguars.
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Correct. It's played in RStudio.
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2022 Football Power Index ratings and rankings!
The rating itself indicates approximately how much better or worse -- in points -- that team is predicted to be, relative to an average NFL team on a neutral field.
It is a predictive rating.
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@NC_LH_SEA
the scoreboard also includes things like, i don't know, defense. or, say, a punt return touchdown, which is coming to mind for some reason
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First PRWR chart of the year!
Double team rate at edge (x) by pass rush win rate at edge (y).
(ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)
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Double team rate at edge (x) by pass rush win rate at edge (y), updated through Week 13.
Micah Parsons is obliterating the field in win rate.
(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats)
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Win rates at edge plot! Looking at run and pass this week.
Run stop win rate at edge (x) by pass rush win rate at edge (y).
T.J. Watt is all on his own.
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“Whether people like it or not, this new approach towards decision-making is real. It’s happening in every single locker room, in every single coaches staff meeting.”
“Everyone is so wrapped up in the outcome. The outcome doesn’t make the decision right or wrong.”
🎯🎯🎯
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The 10 players double teamed most often as an edge rusher.
(ESPN stat, NGS data)
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Seahawks rookies Abraham Lucas and Charles Cross rank 14th and 22nd in pass block win rate among 64 qualifying tackles.
(ESPN Analytics / Next Gen Stats)
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Updated No. 1 overall pick probabilities from ESPN Analytics.
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Double team rate at edge (x) by pass rush win rate at edge (y), updated chart!
It's literally Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett...and then everyone else.
(ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)
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According to the ESPN model, Brandon Staley cost the Chargers a cumulative 7.3 percentage points of win probability via 4th down errors in the first half.
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