Martin Sartorius
@SartoriusMartin
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Principal Economist at the CBI. Views are my own. Also on Bluesky (martinsartorius)
London
Joined October 2017
I joined @LBCNews this morning to discuss what today's inflation figures mean for the UK economy 👇.
ICYMI: This morning our Principal Economist @SartoriusMartin spoke to @LBCNews about the latest inflation figures. With the economy facing a delicate balance between resilience and stagnation, the government must urgently prioritise growth, rule out tax rises & boost investment.
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UK inflation ticked up to 3.8% in July (from 3.6% in June), which was in line with the Bank of England's forecast. Check out my response to the data and what it means for interest rates going forward 👇.
The latest UK inflation data shows a slight uptick in July, broadly in line with the Bank of England's expectations. This is driven by higher energy and regulated prices, along with increased labour costs following last year’s Autumn Budget.
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RT @CBI_Economics: UK CPI inflation rose by 3.8% in the year to July (from 3.6% in June), slightly above consensus expectations. Core CPI i….
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We expect economic growth to be modest through the rest of the year. Our surveys suggest that underlying activity remains sluggish due to persistently weak demand and gloomy sentiment. Learn more about our view of the outlook 👇.
cbi.org.uk
Headwinds hit UK growth prospects - CBI UK Economist Forecast June 2025
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GDP growth in Q2 (0.3% q/q) was slightly stronger than expected in our latest forecast (0.2%). Under the hood, though, growth was mostly driven government spending, while private demand was weak.
UK GDP grew by 0.3% q/q in Q2 2025, beating consensus estimates of 0.1%. Nonetheless, this marked a slowdown from the 0.7% growth seen over Q1 2025
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One interesting nugget from today's MPC minutes is that there were two rounds of voting to reach a decision. From what I can gather, this is the first time the MPC has held two votes since the BoE became independent - underlining just how finely balanced the decision to cut was
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The BoE MPC voted to reduce rates to 4% today, in line with our latest forecast's expectations. The story of the Bank's projections was broadly unchanged from May, with GDP growth remaining subdued and inflation gradually returning to the 2% target after this year's bump. 🧵👇.
The Bank of England’s MPC voted 5-4 to cut Bank Rate by 25bps to 4.00%. The majority bloc voted for an interest rate reduction due to signs of disinflationary pressures stemming from weak activity and cooling labour market conditions
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RT @CBI_Economics: 📉 Private sector firms expect activity to fall again through October. The latest CBI Growth Indicator shows continued we….
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RT @CBI_Economics: Retail sales volumes fell strongly in the year to July, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey. Retailer….
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Check out my full response to the data .
cbi.org.uk
CBI responds to latest inflation data for June 2025
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UK inflation picked up to 3.6% in June (from 3.4% in May), mostly reflecting fuel pump price base effects. Price pressures are expected to remain firm this year, due to higher household energy prices and the passthrough of increased labour costs.
UK CPI inflation rose by a stronger-than-expected 3.6% in June (from 3.4% in May), marking the highest rate since January 2024. Core CPI inflation also increased to 3.7%, from 3.5% in the previous month
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RT @CBI_Economics: UK GDP contracted by 0.1% in May, marking the second consecutive monthly decline after a 0.3% fall in April, though this….
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Underlying activity remains weak across the UK private sector, according to our June surveys 👇.
Business volumes are expected to decline in services, driven by predicted falls in both business & professional services and consumer services. Distribution sales are also expected to fall, while manufacturers expect output to fall only slightly.
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Annual sales volumes fell at a fast pace in the retail and broader distribution sector, according to our latest DTS. Many firms continue to report that consumer caution is holding back sales. Key takeaways from the survey 🧵👇.
Retail sales volumes fell at a sharp rate in the year to June, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey. Retailers expect sales to decline rapidly again next month.
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RT @CBI_Economics: The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to June, at a s….
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RT @CBItweets: The latest CBI Economic Forecast reveals that the UK economy is facing considerable domestic and international headwinds, se….
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Our latest UK forecast has been published! Check out the below thread for the key takeaways from our projections for GDP, inflation, interest rates, and more.
🚨 New UK economic forecast is out! 🚨. We project that the UK will see modest GDP growth of 1.2% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026. The economy is facing stiff domestic & international headwinds that will weigh on activity. Here’s what you need to know 👇🧵
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RT @CBI_Economics: The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to May, at the….
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Inflation rose sharply in April, driven by a perfect storm of price pressures such as the hike in the Ofgem price cap, higher employer NICs, and the National Living Wage increase. We expect that these factors will keep inflation elevated this year.
UK CPI inflation rose to 3.5% in April (from 2.6% in March), broadly in line with Bank of England expectations. This marked the highest rate of inflation since January 2024. Core CPI inflation also picked up to 3.8%, from 3.4% last month
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The UK economy made a strong start to the year, growing by 0.7% q/q in Q1 2025. Growth over the quarter was driven by business investment, net trade, and household spending.
UK GDP grew by a robust 0.7% in Q1 2025, beating consensus estimates of 0.6%. This follows on from 0.1% in Q4 2024. The economy has grown 1.3% over the past year.
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