Sajad Jiyad سجاد
@SajadJiyad
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Author of God's Man in Iraq. Fellow with @TCFdotorg at @CenturyIntl - Recent published work: - Gmail: sjiyad
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Joined June 2009
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I'm delighted to announce that my book, God’s Man in Iraq: The Life and Leadership of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, is out now. Published by
@TCFdotorg
it is available in English and Arabic
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What happened in Baghdad in the past 2 days? Here's a thread to give an overview of the developments
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A scathing attack on the political parties claiming to represent the people, especially the Shia population. I wonder if the politicians listen, understand or care about this sort of criticism
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حبايبي اهلنا اخوتنا واخواتنا في العراق: هذا الوقت العصيب يستلزم تكاتفنا، رحمة لأجدادكم لحد يخون الآخر او يزايد على الآخر بالمواطنة. كلنا نريد الخير لبلدنا، لا تسمحون بمن يشجع على التفرقة والحقد والعنف ان يجير حواراتنا الى كراهية الآخر. نختلف لكن نحترم
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2020 vibe so far: please don’t let tomorrow be worse than today
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An Iraqi psychiatrist once told me that he estimates 90% of Iraqis have some form of mental health issue, with PTSD and depression the top causes. Exposure to violence is so common that finding unaffected people is hard. All this and mental health provisioning is awful
Random conversation with a taxi driver in Baghdad.
Him: "I smoke two packs a day. I want to quit."
Me: "What's stopping you? You can do it now."
Him: "I quit for six months but then, I lost my two daughters in an explosion and went back to being a chain-smoker."
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Target was Al-Faqma a popular Ice Cream store in Jadiriya road usually very busy with families. Horrible scene, casualties reported
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12. The biggest loser is the state, standing idly by while two powerful armed parties continue to struggle for control. Unless a proper solution is reached, more protests and violence are possible
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Daesh continues to target innocent civilians in Ramadan. Explosion heard near Karrada a few minutes ago
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A thread on the Iraqi Parliament’s resolution today calling on government to initiate the removal of foreign troops 1/
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Horrible news of Ahmad Abdul Samad’s murder in Basra. He did an excellent job covering the protests there on Dijlah TV for months. Intimidation, kidnapping and killing of protestors, activists and journalists has continued unabated since 1 October. No justice or accountability
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If the coup is put down by FaceTime rather than violence then Apple should get the Noble Peace Prize
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1. Sadr decided to pull out of elections last July, but was begged by his opponents to run. His party won the most seats, he thought that meant he could form a government of his liking with Kurdish and Sunni allies. First the CF challenged the results, held them up over 2 months
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Family/friends of James Foley: I'm Muslim & daesh kills my kind too. James was my brother in humanity
#RIPJamesFoley
http://t.co/C95EqguaJg
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US military bases in Iraq were built during the GW Bush presidency. When the US pulled out of Iraq at end of 2011, whatever remained was considered Iraqi and already paid for. The US signed a Status of Forces Agreement (SoFA) in 2008 specifying this: 2/
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The most horrific day in Baghdad since 2007. Tonight people will mourn and pray for the victims
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Finance Ministry investigation concludes that $2.5 BILLION dollars was effectively stolen from its General Commission of Taxes account at Rafidain Bank by 5 companies from Sep '21 to Aug'22 who cashed cheques they were not entitled to
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2. Sadr formed an alliance with the KDP, Halbusi, others, with enough MPs to form a government. He intended to leave the CF out completely, changing the post-2003 power sharing model. The CF pushed back through the courts, using them to prevent him forming a government
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Zainab Al-Mayahi is a lawyer and she volunteers to make bread for the protestors. The strength of Iraqi women in these protests has been amazing to watch. In the toughest conditions they have been resilient when even the hardest men had to take a break. Iraqi women, we salute you
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From an Iraqi perspective the news tonight fills me with dread of what’s next. There’s so many questions about how this will impact Iraq and what will happen to protests and the movement for reform & justice. What we have seen before is that when US-Iran butt heads Iraq gets hurt
Not enough time or data yet to prepare analysis of what happened and what’s next but I do have some questions on the Soleimani/Muhandis assassinations that will form the core of such thoughts 1/
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PM
@AdilAbdAlMahdi
says he will submit his resignation to parliament. He will remain acting PM until largest bloc (that’s a whole other problem) nominates a new PM
بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
{ياابت افعل ما تؤمر ستجدني ان شاء الله من الصابرين} صدق الله العلي العظيم
استمعت بحرص كبير الى خطبة المرجعية الدينية العليا يوم 29/11/2019 وذكرها انه "بالنظر للظروف العصيبة التي يمر بها البلد، وما بدا من عجز واضح في تعامل الجهات المعنية مع مستجدات الشهرين
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Iraqi Parliament is in session now, quorum has been met, the Prime Minister is giving a statement outlining his thoughts on US troop presence in Iraq. He is recommending parliament vote to remove foreign troops
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Of Iraq's 42m population around 65% are aged under 30, meaning there 27 million young people. 40% of those aged 15-30 are not in employment, education or training (NEET). That's over 5 million young people with nothing to do
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Iraq’s national grid has almost completely gone offline for 3 hours and counting. Water supply has gone too (no power for pumps) and critical services are affected. If this isn’t resolved quickly it will have a catastrophic effect as everything stops working
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One of the best developments in the recent protests has been the fantastic street art on display. Bare concrete walls in & around Tahrir in Baghdad are now covered in murals and paintings. Lots of very talented young people out there who I hope will be given further opportunities
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3. Rulings on oil & gas and banning Zebari as a presidential candidate fractured his alliance with the KDP, then voiding a finance bill, limiting powers of a caretaker government, return of Halbusi opponents to Anbar all slowed his momentum
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4. Finally it was the 2/3 quorum ruling to elect a president that sealed the deadlock. Sadr did not have the 220 MPs, so offered to include part of the CF but not all in government. CF figured this tactic out and refused, knowing they had an effective veto on government formation
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5. Sadr then surprised everyone by resigning his MPs from parliament but was then surprised when the CF and his former coalition allies proceeded to swear in new MPs and begin government formation without him. So he started protests outside parliament to prevent it meeting
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6. Throughout these months his opponents, backed by Iran, have frustrated Sadr, provoked him and sought to depict him as anti-state. The statement by Hairi was more personal though, challenging his legitimacy in front of his own followers, to which he responded angrily.
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7. His resignation from politics gave the green light to his supporters to further invade the IZ, knowing the ISF would not prevent them. They reached the Government Palace and continued to move towards Maliki's palace and the PMF office, not using any weapons thus far
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8. Security guards and perhaps a small component of the PMF fired shots at the crowd to push them back, then inevitably casualties as the shooting intensified when the Sadrists replied. The killing of several Sadrists, among which Saraya Salam commanders, led to retribution
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A thread to explain why Lt Gen Abdul Wahhab Al-Saadi was removed from the CTS
It will also shed light on his popularity in Iraq & the reason for the hashtag #كلنا_عبد_الوهاب_الساعدي
I have omitted the names of several current & former military/security officials for now
1/18
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For context, the majority of Sadrists today are young, do not follow any Marja and pay no attention to Haeri. With Sadr announcing his ‘resignation’ it leaves the crowd freer to do what they want, giving him no accountability. His instructions were the constraint
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9. Saraya Salam deployed across the country, attacking PMF offices, using rockets against the IZ and targeting the PMF in and around the IZ. The PMF responded with constraint, did not deploy in large numbers and were content to allow the Sadrists to harass the IZ
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10. This light clash still led to casualties, but was not a full-out conflict. The Sadrists became the aggressors, moving beyond retribution, with appetite for more. Pressure on Sadr in Najaf led to him to pull back his followers.
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If you're going to post anything on twitter tonight then post this
#RIPJamesFoley
http://t.co/C95EqguaJg
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11. His anger in allowing himself to be dragged into such a clash is apparent, but no side won here. The CF may want to form a government ASAP but will Sadr sit and watch?
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My article here on Muqtada Al-Sadr and his point of view on why he is more deserving of political power in Iraq than his Shia rivals. Thanks to
@RashaAlAqeedi
for the opportunity and New Lines Magazine staff for publishing it
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Ali from Sadr City:
I tell the government we’ve had enough, we gave many martyrs, we didn’t ask for much. I tell my father please forgive me if I’m killed in the protests
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My 5 year tenure as director of
@BayanCenter
is coming to an end. I'm very proud of what our team has achieved in that time.
I'm on the lookout for new opportunities, do send over any tips (sjiyad at gmail dot com). In the meantime I continue working on Iraq-related projects
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The Turkish military is split, the chief of general staff is under arrest as are several political leaders
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Funeral procession for Soleimani/Muhandis will start at 8am tomorrow in Kadhimiya then to Jadiriya at 10am before moving to Karbala and Najaf in the afternoon. Expect it to be well attended and also become a protest
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Short bio on the new PM-designate
@MAKadhimi
: born Mustafa Abdul Lateef Mushatat Al-Ghareebawi in 1964 in Kadhimiya, Baghdad. His father, a member of Kamil Chadirji's left-wing NDP, moved the family from Shatra, Dhi Qar in 1963 to Baghdad
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Every day an Iraqi is killed in the line of duty, their families will grieve, the breaking of society continues. Violence has traumatised Iraq for decades and the effects will continue in future generations
المقاتل البطل علي ابراهيم استشهد في قضاء الطارمية أثر هجوم ارهابي استهدف موكب آمر اللواء ٥٩ في الجيش العراقي مساء امس .
له الرحمة ولذكره الطيب الخلود ولاهله الصبر على فراقه
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Very difficult to predict what happens next in Baghdad but my bet would be another form of escalation as neither the Sadrists nor the CF look prepared to compromise. Here are some thoughts:
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So my rough tally for seats:
Sadrists 73
Taqadum 38
State of Law 37
KDP 32
Independents 30
Azm 15
PUK/Gorran 15
Fateh 14
New Generation 11
Imtidad 10
Tasmim 7
Ishraqat Kanoon 6
Babilyun 5
Nasr/Hikma 4
KIU 4
Huquq 1
KJG 1
Total 303 (26 left to account for)
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Pleased to announce I’ve joined
@TCFdotorg
as a fellow focused on Iraq. Excited to be working with
@tcambanis
and
@mwhanna1
. This is my first contribution, more on the way in the coming weeks
What dangers loom in the Middle East during the final days of Trump? And under Biden, how much of a reset or redirection is possible?
Some analysis of what might come next from team
@tcfdotorg
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Updated seat count from full results 16 October:
Sadrists 73
Taqadum 38
Independents 37
SoL 35
KDP 33
Fateh 16
PUK 16
Azm 12
New Gen 9
Imtidad 9
Kanoon 6
Aqd 5
Tasmim 5
Nasr/Hikma 4
Babilyun 4
18 other parties picked up 22 seats, another 5 seats for minorities quota
Total 329
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Thread on the crisis facing Basra and why Iraq will collapse if Basra collapses. Demographics, climate change, water scarcity, poor infrastructure & governance, oil prices are all factors contributing to a disaster that has been bubbling under the surface for over a decade
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On the issue of US bases, Iraqi sovereignty and sanctions 1/
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The man with the toughest job in the world - my take on how Iraq’s PM is managing all the crises on his hands
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The flames that consumed hope - a reflection on what happened in Karrada on Saturday
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My new paper published by
@LSEMiddleEast
as part of the
@Peace_Rep_
series on Iraq looks at how corruption is organised by the political elite and leads to direct harm of citizens
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Why the Pope’s trip to Najaf was not straightforward - including details on how it went
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If reports of Iranian missile attacks on US targets in Iraq are accurate then it confirms what was feared about war being conducted in Iraq with no regard for Iraqi lives or sovereignty
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Army has pulled out from Ataturk airport in face of large crowds
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Face to face with her Daesh rapist, a Yazeedi survivor asks him why he did what he did to her when she was 14. Painful to watch
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Just got back from Tahrir Square, I'm posting my observations and some pics/videos. There's a lot of determination to continue these protests so either the government has to use force to disperse them or satisfies the protestors their demands are being met
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The top 4 parties in the election by estimated seats:
Sadrists 73
Taqadum 38
State of Law 37
KDP 32
What they have in common:
- Structured around a charismatic leader who dominates the party
- Use of the personal name and family/tribal ties
- Have a home constituency
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My article on why failure to take the protests seriously and initiate reforms will lead to the collapse of the political system in Iraq
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I've thought about what I would say when Baghdadi would be killed but the truth is nothing can bring back the lives lost and destroyed by his terrorist group. That there are still people in this world who share his ideology and sympathise with him is frightening
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In Baghdad life has returned to what it was before COVID and you would almost not know there even was a pandemic. Despite this, infection rates have not shot up according to official data which has got me thinking about something even more curious...
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RIP David Haines and the thousands of others whom we don't know the names of who have been murdered by the same terror group
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Muqtada Al-Sadr was never going to boycott elections, he was trying to extract concessions from others. Seeing alliances were being formed without him, that Najaf did not support postponing and that he could agree with Ameri again on choice of PM, he announced his ‘return’ today
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1. The skullduggery with the leaks from rival sides is getting uglier. Iraq is saturated with spying, surveillance, hacking and eavesdropping but worth noting some of the major players:
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Always keep an eye on Basra, it is the pulse of Iraq and on which its future depends
بيان لمتظاهري البصرة يعلنون فيه إقالة محافظ البصرة "أسعد العيداني" ونائبه الاول "محمد التميمي" ونائبه الثاني "ضرغام الاجودي"....نقلا عن المربد
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Easter day services across churches in Baghdad today. Best wishes to all celebrating
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My article on why Daesh has increased activity in Iraq in recent months and what priorities the government should have in dealing with the security challenges that presents
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In this policy brief for
@ECFRMena
I lay out the challenges Iraq is facing and recommendations for Europe to achieve a real and lasting partnership vital to the stability of both sides 1/
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Gul speaking now says Turkey is not an African country where coups replace democracy
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In this commentary I try to distinguish my feelings and experiences from those of the Iraqis who lived through the war in 2003 and its aftermath
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Tomorrow my book God’s Man in Iraq: The Life and Leadership of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is released. In this article I outline Sistani's importance and why his legacy is so impactful and worth reading about
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Millions in Karbala tonight commemorating Ashura. Ya Hussain
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Many families spending Eid visiting graves of loved ones who died too young as they sacrificed so we could celebrate
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Chants denouncing the US as the coffins entered the Shrine
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Protests ongoing in Najaf and other cities. The resilience shown by the younger generations has made it clear that protests are a force to be reckoned with and ignoring them or attempting to crush them will only have greater repercussions. Much solidarity with them across Iraq
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My thoughts on the likelihood of the US withdrawing from Iraq this year. Some extra points I can include in this thread 1/
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My article on how the deadlock was ended, a President elected, a PM nominated and what to expect from the new government
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The next government is likely to be the most populist, least economically sensible and severely under-qualified yet. Expect more public sector hiring, subsidies, 'oil wealth redistribution' and other cash-burning policies, on the back of high oil prices. Disaster in the making
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While Iran can be patient and careful with planning its retaliation for Soleimani’s killing, I think the Iraqi groups will be less so for the Muhandis assassination. While some of his rivals will quietly be relieved he is gone they will also want revenge to deter further strikes
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I’m in Basra today, 49C with hot, dry wind. But better than Baghdad, with around 20 hours of grid power. So far salty seawater hasn’t moved upstream to this point as in previous years but expected to do so, meaning municipal supply will struggle to provide potable water
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Pledges for Iraq so far in KW (some in loans/credit):
Turkey: $5bn
US: $3bn
Kuwait: $1bn in loans & $1bn investments
Saudi Arabia: $1.5bn & $1.5bn from Arab Fund
Qatar: $1bn
UAE: $500m & $5.5bn investments
Islamic Development Bank: $500m
Germany: €500m
EU: €400m
Japan: $100m
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SoFA expired on 31 Dec 2011. The US and Iraq also signed a Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA) in 2008 that is still in effect. It states the US will not retain bases or permanent military presence nor use Iraq to launch attacks against other countries: 3/
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In this ‘war’ the formula is:
US attacks Iran = Iraqis die
Iran attacks US = Iraqis die
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This is called throwing the ball in the other’s court. The President asks the Speaker to tell him who the largest bloc is. About 1 year and 3 months late. Why didn’t he ask this question last year? How did he nominate the PM without knowing who the largest bloc is? FUBAR
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These armed criminals are not protestors, they are hijacking the protests to settle scores or undermine the protest movement. They are the ones who the security forces should be pacifying and arresting, not the peaceful protestors being shot in the head with tear gas canisters
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My report on why systemic corruption is the big problem in Iraq, with the example of the 'theft of the century' highlighting how compromised accountability in the state is
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In summary, there are no US bases in Iraq (they co-locate and share Iraqi facilities), Iraq will not pay the US to remain or withdraw, the US may cut off financial assistance, sanctions are a possibility but unlikely for now 7/
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A smile on behalf of all Iraqis
9 December 2017
Victory in Iraq Day
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