A new paper by me, @reinhardkh, @alexbakey, @Len_Shaffrey, @KieranBhatia and Kevin Hodges was published in MWR today! We look at why some post-tropical cyclones reach Europe but others don't: https://t.co/Qkhvt8HrMo Press release:

Swindon, Wiltshire

One more to cross off the bucket list!

Love having to routinely pay £75 for a 45 min journey, with the privilege of being packed in like sardines because getting the right number of carriages on the train is too much to ask. Congrats @GWRHelp, you continuously surprise me for all the wrong reasons 👏👏👏

Viva done and dusted! 😁 Huge thanks to @reinhardkh, @Len_Shaffrey, @alexbakey, Kevin Hodges & @KieranBhatia for being such fantastic supervisors over the last three years, and to @cgrams_lsdp and Oscar for such an interesting discussion. Definitely going to miss @UniofReading !

And while GCMs have come a long way in their ability to represent TCs, many still have considerable intensity biases, and biases in many environmental fields which are important for TC genesis and intensification

We don't find a significant change in European impacting PTC frequency or intensity. But this is because a significant decrease in TC activity in the Atlantic offsets the significant increase in the likelihood that any individual TC will reach Europe

The final paper from my PhD has just been published in WCD! We look at future post-tropical cyclone risk to Europe in an ensemble of CMIP6 models:

Stronger hurricanes that are reenergised by jet stream winds are twice as likely to cross the Atlantic and wreak havoc in Europe than weaker ones, new research from @UniRdg_Met @AtmosScience @Sainsbo46 has found. Read more: https://t.co/3zGwDKJeBW

At a renaming ceremony on campus last week, the Meteorology Building was renamed after one of its most distinguished professors, Sir Brian Hoskins - recognised by many as the pre-eminent dynamical meteorologist of his generation. Find out more: https://t.co/out9UKpAGT

And that's a wrap. PhD thesis submitted!😁 Looking forward to a much-needed holiday before joining the Weather Team at Citadel towards the end of the month

My first PhD paper is out ! 🥳 We meant it to be a guide for anyone wishing to track TCs to get an idea of the existing methods, their caveats and how to choose a tracker. I hope some of you might find it useful for their work! https://t.co/PyvOp2DEV0

Most ex-hurricanes that reach Europe travel across the region currently experiencing record warm SSTs (fig from https://t.co/fWPMnH7DS7, adapted from https://t.co/CjYsXiXD4G). This year, they might have a bit more fuel

Fourth (and final) paper from my PhD has just been submitted! If you want to know more about how well CMIP6 models capture tropical and post-tropical cyclones and are curious about how they might change in the future, you can read the preprint here:

40C in London in July 2022 would have been 36C without human-caused climate change - new rapid @wxrisk study highlights huge role of climate change in deadly heat. https://t.co/BFI8ejmobQ

A look back at the GEFS modelling in the run-up to the extreme heat that impacted the UK in mid-July 2022. Whilst the GFS Det jumped around with each run, there was a fairly consistent (and growing) signal from the ensembles for potentially record-breaking temperatures... 🌡️

At least 29 observation sites across England have provisionally broken the previous all time maximum UK record of 38.7 °C this afternoon Here are some of the provisional maximum temperatures so far today #heatwave #heatwave2022

🌡️ A temperature of 39.1°C has provisionally been recorded at Charlwood, Surrey If confirmed this will be the highest temperature ever recorded in the UK⚠️ Temperatures are likely to rise further through today 📈 #heatwave #heatwave2022

This map highlights the places that are forecast to be hotter than the UK on Tuesday. It's about 1.2% of the planet's surface.

The intensity of the heat lifting north out of Spain & Portugal is simply staggering.