SPACuity
@SPACuity
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Used to do a lot with SPACs. Now back to doing a lot with SPACs. I also post things to make myself chuckle. If you are amused, it is a nice bonus.
Not Investment Advice, USA
Joined February 2017
I still debate my favorite Chamath quote; “I’m about to really fuck some shit up” or “Buffet had Geico. I have Metromile”. Though “no crying in the casino” in this IPO prospectus is good too.
tl:dr. Scamath:.One decent SPAC….One home run PIPE….The rest…💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩.Buyer beware.
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A thoughtful post on how one company $sqns (bitcoin treasury) is approaching the challenge of trading below NAV. Not a simple situation. We’ll see more such situations. Not as fun as selling stock to stack.
@AdamHewittBTC @vik_mittal @coryklippsten @Sequans There will likely be many strategies deployed to defend NAV in the industry over time, which I’m sure will include the sale of Bitcoin by some organizations. As it pertains to SQNS, the convertible bonds are secured with the Bitcoin which means the Bitcoin currently cannot be.
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Unless something nefarious happening, in afterhours can buy $NBY for about 11 cents over upcoming special dividend. A lot of volume for shares outstanding. Hmm. "total special dividend to be paid to shareholders shall be $0.80 multiplied by 5,823,497 equaling $4,658,797.60".
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Not sure when the dividend gets declared (today? next week? September?), but I'd rather be long shares of $NBY than short shares when they declare their 80 cent per share dividend. Longer term remains to be seen what the shell itself is worth.
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$NBY; press release didn't mention amount of dividend. SEC filings spell out a minimum of 80 cents per share, no later than September 30th (see point 9 in linked filing). I wonder if the stock might react when dividend is declared.
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Note: I don't think Poplar a seller given they signed a voting agreement with $NBY. Eventually more shares enter the float, but that's a ways off, and Lazar is locked up for 6 months. I like it with 80 cent dividend on the way as downside protection, and squeeze upside. (7/7).
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I'd love feedback here on the idea. Definitely odd how "like water" it has traded given the float. That said, I've seen names like this take a little while to react, and in hindsight the set-up seems much more apparent. Also I admittedly could be missing something(s). (6/7).
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I'm long as of today, and intrigued to see how it shakes out as all of this trading volume is digested. I may continue to be active in the name, not sure how long I hold; but seems pretty asymmetric in the short term. Longer term? We'll see. (5/7).
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Maybe I'm missing something, but less than 5 million shares are currently tradeable. With 150+ million traded already today, could someone be caught offsides? Who'd want to be short this with an 80 cent dividend to need to pay out? (4/7).
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You've got a $6 million mkt cap company, $5 million worth of float; 80 cent dividend on its way. Doesn't take too many people willing to buy some shares and hold them for a bit. Downside risk? You get 80 cent dividend and shares of a shell. Upside potential? (3/7).
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They will declare an 80 cent dividend, targeting September 30. David Lazar is effectively recapitalizing this to do something with the shell. He's locked up for 6 months. Not sure what they merge this with, and he's paying a low price for the shell, but in the meantime; 2/7.
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Asymmetric opportunity; $NBY. Trading $1.03 by $1.04 as I type this. No guarantee, but could potentially squeeze higher. Has traded 151 million shares already today. 5.8 million shares outstanding; Biggest holder Poplar has a million shares, so less than 5 million in float. 1/7.
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"Glory lies ahead"; well, probably for the folks who bought half a billion bucks worth of $NAKA stock at $1.12 per share on the PIPE. We'll see about the others. Might be more like a glory hole for them.
One of the most hilarious aspects of Bitcoin is sentiment. It flickers like a flame. One moment euphoria, moments later panic. Many bitcoin have exchanged hands through such emotions. Zoom out. Stay focused. Glory lies ahead.
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Entering the copium phase. "sure we overpaid, but so what?".And they may be right. We'll see.
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What I'd like is to do away with the "expert market". How it benefits anyone to not allow retail investors to buy some of the best things out there. though I suppose they are priced that way precisely BECAUSE retail can't buy. But expert market is stupid. Level the field.
@StanphylCap The SEC effectively doesn't exist right now.
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Feels like we are finally in "price discovery" phase of crypto treasury companies. Discounts are being bought, premiums are being sold. Gaps are closing. At the end of the day, there's not much secret sauce here. Sell stock buy crypto. Eventually sell crypto and maybe buy stock.
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This will be interesting; how to game the system with an operating business big enough to be an index inclusion candidate loophole and small enough for people not to care. Problem is people like pureplays. Would help if the operating business was actually value additive.
Why do all the new shell LBEs like NAKA, CEP, EMPD, and Pomp’s SPAC claim they are going to become operating businesses?. IT’S BECAUSE YOU NEED AN OPERATING BUSINESS FOR INDEX INCLUSION!!. Calling for @sequans to shut down their operating biz is insane, completely missing the.
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SPAC cycle; getting back to when terrible public companies are bringing SPACs public. Those were garbage last time, I expect nothing different this time.
stocktitan.net
TGE Value Creative Solutions Corp files S-1 registration for SPAC IPO on Nasdaq. Units to include Class A shares and half-warrants. Part of TGE's expansion and acquisition strategy.
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Sadly, at the right price I'll still buy his new SPAC.
Chamath's SPAC History (by latest return from IPO). Social Capital:.American Exceptionalism Acquisition Corp. A (Pre-IPO) $AEXA. Social Capital Hedosophia:.SoFi $SOFI 142%.Opendoor $OPEN -62%.Clover Health $CLOV -74%.Virgin Galactic $SPCE -99%.2 SPAC Liquidations (IPOD, IPOF).
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