Ryan Hill
@RyanReedHill
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Assistant Professor at Northwestern Kellogg researching science and innovation. Living that dad life.
Joined December 2011
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Pinned Tweet
A non-economist just leaned over and asked me during an NBER talk:
“This social planner, is she in the room with us now?”
(It was
@dashunwang
)
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Hey academics on Twitter:
Have you ever been scooped?
Do you worry about getting scooped?
My job market paper estimates the consequences of getting scooped in science using cool data from structural biology.
Let’s do a thread!
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After six years of a PhD, it sucks to end this way. It’s been a profound experience and I feel like I’m slipping out the back door. Anyone else wishing for more closure?
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Congrats on a well-deserved Nobel Prize for
@metrics52
, a fantastic advisor, scholar, and teacher. Rock on, Josh!
(screenshots courtesy of his sneaky metrics TA in March 2020)
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Econ PhD advice thread:
@carolyn_sms
and I co-wrote our job market papers, so we often get asked about the pros and cons of co-authoring with grad school peers. Now that we both have survived the market, I wanted to tweet out a few reflections on our experience.
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I've looked at this to-do item every day for four years.
Today I checked the box.
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Reminds me of the time I was typing up my third-year paper at a Cambridge coffee shop. Larry Katz walked in and asked me what I was working on. I read the abstract and he immediately pulled out the paperwork to officially accept it for publication at the QJE.
When people ask me why I love Silicon Valley, I just share an incredible story like this one 🥲
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The secret is getting out, so let me make it
#EconTwitter
official: This summer I am joining the Kellogg Strategy group as a new Assistant Professor. We’ve been dancing around each other for a couple years and the stars finally aligned. I’m excited for the new challenge!
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I knew Matt Gay in 2014 when he was a soccer player at Utah Valley Univ. He had never played a down of football. In 2022, he just kicked the game-winning field goal for the LA Rams in the playoffs.
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The most shocking thing Yusuke Narita said as my 1st-year metrics TA:
“Let’s start with a simple example to help build intuition. Consider a measure space with the following sigma-algebra…”
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I'm very grateful to announce that I will be joining
@BYUecon
as an Assistant Professor of Economics starting Fall 2021. I'm also excited to spend the next year as a post-doc at the
@KelloggSchool
Strategy group. Good times ahead! Some thoughts and thanks below...
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This is a healthy exercise. I failed two final exams at MIT during my first year and had to retake them. One in micro and one in macro. A bit embarrassing, but in no way derailed my overall progress. Failure is part of the process!
Flex your lowest academic low score.
To remind us that almost everyone fails at some point in life but it isn't the end of the road. Just a memory in the end.
Mine was 27/100 in Engineering Math 2, just a year after I'd scored 99 in 12th boards. Much needed kick in my butt.
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So excited to get an R&R on my job market paper! Bought a LEGO set for the kids to celebrate 😆
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Quarantine just got that much better at our house :)
We welcomed Simon Reed Hill to our family this week. We are so grateful for his sweet and calming presence.
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So yeah, nobody likes getting scooped. It sucks!
Here’s the good news: The evidence we present suggests that scooped projects are still very likely to get published and cited. Also, getting scooped is not a death knell for a fledgling career. Yay!
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I probably won’t put my CV on my headstone, but you have to respect this mic drop from Lars Onsager 😎
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Somehow I was added to a paper revision email chain of psychologists who think I am Ryan Hill, psychologist at Baylor, not Ryan Hill the economist at BYU. Should I make some edits to the manuscript?
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@asv141
Distribution is probably extremely skewed. I wouldn't be surprised if this was close to true
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I recommend learning scraping techniques on python to any applied economist. I use these tricks for almost every project I work on. Great way to get new data that no one has looked at before.
Someone should make a deck of slides called "Web scraping for economists". I think that would be super useful for PhD students.
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I almost never worked weekends as a PhD student. Very possible (and maybe recommended) to be successful
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We're about to submit a paper to an economics journal in which we cite 29 economics papers, 4 sociology papers, and 44 (!) life science papers. Are we doing this right??
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But maybe some bad news?
Our next paper considers the efficiency and welfare of scientific racing. We look at objective quality metrics in the PDB and present evidence that racing is associated with lower quality science. Tradeoffs will be discussed!
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PhD survival tip: Plan to buy yourself a nice expensive gift as a reward when you finish.
(It plays like butter)
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Ok this thread is for all you Stata junkies out there that use reshape regularly.
Sometimes I have to do “unbalanced” reshapes, which is a task that is super inefficient using the standard reshape command.
So here's a hack you might find useful!
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Thanks for reading, please check out the paper, and stay tuned for more research about research.
Website link:
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Today is my last day as a post-doc at
@NorthwesternU
. I didn’t set foot on campus this year, but it’s been a great experience nonetheless thanks to mentorship from
@bfjo
and collaboration with
@dashunwang
and
@yian_yin
. Tomorrow I’m a professor!
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Another way to describe the citation result is that scooped papers get 42% of the total citations to both projects. That’s way bigger than the 0% that we usually assume in theoretical models of racing. It’s not winner-take-all, but maybe winner-take-much.
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Why does Google Maps estimate travel time based on *current* traffic conditions all along the route? If I’m driving through downtown Chicago in 6 hours (after rush hour), why estimate based on current traffic instead of forecast traffic for the time I’m driving through?
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I’ve been reflecting this past year since the job market on my decision to stick with academia over industry. One thing I think I can add to the conversation is my experience as a first-gen PhD having watched the ups and downs of my Dad’s (crazy!) career in industry. 1/N
While I don't completely agree with the sentiment, I think the median person - even perhaps the median econ grad student - would be more impactful, richer, and happier in industry than in academia
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Dear RCT subject:
Thank you for participating in my study. You achieved the Maximum Influence Perturbation and are therefore in my Most Influential Set. Merry Christmas!
(ps Thanks for the AER)
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So what do we find? Scooped projects are 2.5% less likely to be published, are 18% less likely to appear in a top journal, and receive 28% fewer citations.
Bummer! But are these effects “big” or “small”?
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New office view. Selling my scouting services to other Big 10 schools. DM if interested
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If we all send Khoa our copy of MWG, he could fill every shelf of his new office. Would be an incredible flex
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The paper is called:
Scooped! Estimating Rewards for Priority in Science
It’s co-authored with my awesome classmate
@carolyn_sms
, who is a fantastic collaborator. Look for her on the econ market next year!
Paper link:
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I built this book cradle for my 3-year-old. Submitted to
#econwoodworking
twitter for approval
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Goodreads is interesting because the highest rated books are almost all fantasy sequels. Extreme positive selection from (1) serious genre readers and (2) people who liked the first book enough to read the sequels
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Very excited to present for the first time at NBER SI tomorrow (7/14) in the innovation session. The paper is my JMP about getting scooped! (joint with
@carolyn_sms
)
You can tune in at 2:10 pm ET on the public livestream (I’ll add the link tomorrow morning when it is posted).
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My young grasshopper begins his path to econometric enlightenment.
(Thanks to the Master himself
@metrics52
for the gift)
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Here is some free advertising for
@evernote
. I use it constantly to organize my research notes, so I thought I would highlight some features. As an example, I’ll show you my lit review workflow because I think it's pretty slick...
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The effect of getting scooped varies by pre-existing reputation. This plot shows the citation shares in “mismatched” races between high- and low-reputation teams. Getting scooped has bigger effects if you’re from a low-ranked university or have very little publishing experience.
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JMCs: Remember to spend the day before interviews mapping out your zoom schedule. You might even want to do a practice walk-through so you don't forget to log-in for that one random interview on Microsoft Teams
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If you are refereeing a resubmission in which the authors sufficiently addressed all of your comments, are you expected to provide any additional report to the authors, or can you just send a thumbs up letter to the editor and skip the report?
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The due date is the same day my dissertation is due 😂 We’re excited
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Advisor: Self-care is important on the job market. Try to do something fun between fly-outs.
Me:
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Excited for my kid to pursue a PhD in Kenneth C. Griffinomics someday.
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Every day I’m one step closer to being a model-train-in-the-basement dad
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At 10:00 P.M. on the day we submitted to Econometrica, we were at 97% to be accepted with the so-called “bookies”.
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Lastly, we look at the effect on careers, and find that in this setting the costs are small, even for novice scientists. Getting scooped lowers citations to future work, but has minimal, if any, effect on publication rates over then next 5 years.
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Respondents think there is a 27% chance of getting scooped between project completion and publication, much higher than the 3-8% chance in our data. They guess that they will only get 26% of the total citations if scooped, much lower than the 42% we find.
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Waiting for Martin Hackmann, Jim Heckman, Brent Hickman, Bruce Hockman, and Robert Huckman to write an Econ paper together. How can we make this happen?
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The longer I study innovation, the less I trust patent citations as a good measure of
1) quality of ideas
2) knowledge spillovers
They are useful in some cases, but anyone using citations as an outcome needs to think deeply about Evgenii’s great paper:
Does knowledge float "in the air" as Marshall (1920) suggested?
I show that knowledge does not flow through ether, it flows through pipes of business relations.
A revised WP and 🧵 on secrecy, the decline in trade secret sharing, and the role of China and IT in this decline.
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I’ll chime in here with my ugrad math experience. I decided late to pursue an Econ PhD, so I basically had to cram a math major into 4 semesters. In hindsight, it was “worth it” in the sense I got into MIT, but it was an extremely challenging and risky move. YMMV
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Shout-out to my 4 classmates who spent 2 hours this afternoon helping me re-work my job talk for Monday's internal seminar.
Couldn't do it without these folks!
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First, dissertation research is way, way more enjoyable with a friend. Your JMP journey will have a lot of ups and downs. It’s much easier to brainstorm through problems, encourage, and hold each other accountable as a team.
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If I ever become an editor, I will bank up a couple months of acceptance emails and send them all out on Christmas Day
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@Buster_ESPN
Fans also know that 100 RBIs in a season is excellent. They have no idea whether a 2 WAR is outstanding or a 25 WAR.
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Homeownership is one of the few ways to make leveraged investments that build generational wealth he mutters to himself as the sewer line backs up into the laundry room for the third time this month
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@toddrjones
I think it just depends on what the candidate’s goals were. I think it’s a bummer when someone was really hoping for an academic placement and doesn’t get it. The good options in industry are a nice consolation though. If that was the goal all along, good for them!
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Dang wasted two hours on the stupid missing > 0 problem in stata. That one hasn't gotten me in a long time 😑
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In case any of my 192 followers are interested, MIT News did a profile of my life and research today. Norah stole the show in the picture :)
Risk, failure, and living your life: The economics of being an early-career scientist
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Can we start a letter-writing campaign to convince Carl Shapiro and Hal Varian to write a new edition of Information Rules?
It's incredibly prescient about the evolving digital economy (in 1999!), but a new version could cover so many great examples from the past 25 years.
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BTW, we became friends when we were arbitrarily chosen to co-organize the labor lunch. So I will also take this opportunity to plug the incidental benefits of department service!
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The fall of the Galactic Empire and subsequent demilitarization of the New Republic shifted formal infantry employment into informal mercenary markets. In this paper, we use this supply shock of bounty hunters to estimate the wage elasticity of
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The apex of our twitter lives
Remember that time the future Vice President of the United States tweeted about my family? I sure do. And I’m so excited to vote for her.
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One reason that JMP culture is moving away from strict single-authorship is because the rest of the field has shifted away from single-authorship (49% in 2000 vs. 23% in 2017 in my data). Solo-authorship is not very efficient given the high returns to scale of research teams.
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I would not recommend getting strep throat at anytime. But if at all possible, avoid getting it during a global pandemic when your wife is 39 weeks pregnant.
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Two thoughts on virtual academic conferences.
1) The networking benefits of in-person cannot be replicated online. I think this is by far the biggest cost of online.
2) The diversity of speakers you can get is much better. I see huge benefits for cross-discipline interaction.
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@DKThomp
Need to be careful interpreting this. Respondents were asked to pick ONE source they trusted. Largely the plot reflects media concentration on the right and not left
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Almost a year into quarantine and my 4yo daughter finally figured out how to steer in Mario Kart. Couldn’t be more proud
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Six months ago, I swear I couldn't even flatpick a major scale. So let me plug my instructor, Patrick Boyer. He teaches from Nashville over zoom, and his lessons have been a highlight of my locked-down life. Check the link below or DM me for details if you're looking for lessons!
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Economists have long characterized the reward system for innovation (patents, academic papers, etc.) as winner-take-all races. This extreme allocation of credit affects how we think about R&D investment, innovation strategy, and the pace and direction of science.
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Why do we all hyperlink to tables at the end of the working paper, but never hyperlink back to the intended location in the text?
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Publishing is fun, but
@econimate
covering your paper? that's a thrill 😎
This is a fun summary of our work on competition in science using data from structural biology (it is also
@carolyn_sms
's JMP!)
Can competition and the pressure to publish first lower the quality of scientific work?
@RyanReedHill
(
@KelloggSchool
) and
@carolyn_sms
(
@MITEcon
) on a race to the bottom in science:
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Tried to buy a Nintendo Switch but they are sold out in a 200 mile radius of our location. Finally found one available online... from 🤷🏼♂️
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Estimating the cost of getting scooped is tricky!
The key data problem is selective abandonment. If I get scooped, I may decide to drop the project altogether, or change the paper such that it no longer resembles the original paper.
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This is an incredible visualization of how rejection is a part of academic life. The problem is that we RARELY see these examples as young researchers. If more people were candid about rejection like
@JohnHolbein1
, academia would be a much healthier space!
In case you're interested, here's my rejection profile.
Red=reject
Green=accept
Orange=pending
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But there is almost no empirical evidence about the actual allocation of rewards in these races.
What is the effect of getting scooped?
In a close race, how much more credit do we give the “priority” (ie first) publication in terms of journal placement, citations, etc.?
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My take: The unfair admissions system at Ivy+ schools are a relatively minor distortion (few people affected) that helps fund a massive research infrastructure that has extremely broad benefits.
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Here’s what we do:
1) Link identical projects by different teams using the amino acid sequence that defines the proteins
2) Find cases where the two teams independently deposited around the same time
3) Compare outcomes of winning and scooped projects
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Have you ever dreamt of settling the moon and establishing an anarcho-syndicatist utopia??
Have we got a book for you!
The
#EconTwitter
sci-fi book club will meet in December to discuss Ursula K LeGuin's classic novel "The Dispossessed". Details below!
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The great thing about eTOC notifications from Econ journals is they remind you about your favorite working papers from 5 years ago. Bit of nostalgia in your inbox
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I just cold-connected with a biologist on LinkedIn by cramming a research question into the 300 character request note so I didn't have to pay for LinkedIn's premium mail option. Just like the old collect-call trick I hear about from the 90s. 😎
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