RosterEconomics
@RosterEconomics
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Aspiring to work in baseball ops. Using PAP to connect on-field performance with payroll and contract efficiency. MLB analytics through a financial lens.
Joined December 2025
Cody Bellinger’s 2025 production translated into a 6.56 PAP score, signaling solid value relative to contract. The New York Yankees are widely viewed as the front-runner to re-sign him among potential suitors. Where do you think Bellinger will land this off-season?
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Dalton Varsho posted a PAP of 6.03 for the Blue Jays last season. With this new contract, if he can perform similar to last season (I think he will perform better) his 2026 PAP score would be around 5.50. This is solid value for the Jays in Varsho’s last season before FA.
Daulton Varsho avoided arbitration with the Blue Jays, signing for $10.75M.
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Brendan Donovan quietly delivered strong value in 2025. A .287 average with 2.9 fWAR / 2.7 bWAR at just $2.85M translated into a 6.39 PAP score, highlighting real payroll efficiency and roster flexibility for the Cardinals.
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A career 3.60 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 8.5 K/9 over 284.2 IP…Reese Olson is entering his age 26 season.
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Kyle Tucker to Philly isn’t talked about enough. Major market. $291M payroll in 2025, projected 2026 payroll of $265M by FanGraphs, with even more money coming off the books by 2027. From a payroll lens, there’s real flexibility to add a premium bat if the Phillies want to push
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Alex Bregman enters free agency coming off a market-aligned 2025 season. PAP suggests his production supports a potential small raise into the $26–27M range, but pushing beyond that threshold begins to introduce contract inefficiency.
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Elly De La Cruz played all 162 games in 2025 and delivered impact production throughout the season. With a 6.56 PAP score at a $770K salary and four years of team control remaining, the Reds have a clear runway to build off last season’s Wild Card appearance.
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Brett Baty delivered everyday production in 2025 at just a $774K salary, generating clear surplus value (6.52 PAP). Cost-controlled contributors like this give the Mets meaningful payroll flexibility, helping create room to pursue big-ticket free agents elsewhere on the roster.
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Pierce Coppola was a very fun selection for the Cubs in the '25 draft. A 6-ft-8, 245 lb LHP, the @GatorsBB alum posted a career 15.5 K/9 in college, with 85 strikeouts to 23 walks. Between Coppola and Colton Book, the Cubs added multiple strong collegiate lefties to their farm.
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The Toronto Blue Jays ran a roughly $255M payroll in 2025. If that number holds, Kazuma Okamoto’s $15M AAV would account for about 5.8% of the Jays’ payroll. In 2025, only six MLB teams allocated a higher share of payroll to their starting third basemen.
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Jazz Chisholm Jr. provided high-impact value in 2025, pairing 31 home runs with strong all-around contributions across 130 games. His 4.4 fWAR and 4.2 bWAR highlight the impact, and at a $5.85M salary, that production delivered strong payroll-adjusted value. #Yankees
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Peter Kussow is the crown jewel of the Mets 2025 draft class: -Up to 97 w/ a firm ride-run fastball -Tight gyro slider in the mid 80s It’s a foundation of 2 plus pitches & the slender 6’5 righty has room to add velo. Kussow has legitimate ace potential. https://t.co/iVxihZ4RFO
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Michael Busch has been a beast in his first 2 seasons with the Chicago Cubs, especially in 2025. The 28-year-old slugged 34 HR while putting up a 140 wRC+ over 592 PA. He vastly improved on the FF (RV increase of +12) and showed even more Pull-Air contact paired with great QoC.
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Payroll Adjusted Performance (PAP) evaluates player value by aligning on-field production with payroll investment. This release focuses only on the 1st base position. Any surprises on this list? Do you think there is anyone else who outplayed their current contract in 2025?
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