You've got to the love the UK CBI retailing survey. Volatile much? But for what it's worth, sales for the time of the year balance reached the strongest in 14 months in July.

UK payrolls are NICS-driven rather than weak demand. Sectors with many part-time—whose employment costs rise most after NICS hike—and self-employed workers—can cut tax liability by switching from employee status—see payrolls most. Latter means payrolls exaggerate job falls.

UK political views increasingly seem to be driving responses to consumer sentiment—a phenomenon seen for some surveys in the US too—making them a less reliable leading indicator.

RT @IanShepherdson: Some media reporting that the Philippines will "pay a 19% tariff". No, they won't. American purchasers of goods from th….

RT @PantheonMacro: "Job falls easing, and pay growth too high for 2% inflation" @Robwoodecon #PantheonMacro https:/….

Which do you believe? Payrolls that just got massively revised, or the other two series which are also revision prone and in the case of the LFS not firing on all cylinders yet. Jobs falling or rising solidly?. What the MPC would give for accurate data.

Surprise, surprise, UK payrolls were revised up bang in-line with their typical pattern. The question is why would anyone believe the dodgy first estimates from this series showing tanking jobs? With a typical revision to June data, the trend now seems to be for easing job falls

RT @PantheonMacro: "The ONS’s BICS survey is a goldmine of information" @Robwoodecon #PantheonMacro .

The worst-kept secret in the world? UK public finances are on an unsustainable path. Yet every time the OBR states that fact it seems to count as news and comes as a surprise. .

Shall we call it the estate agents' PMI?

Here's the thing about the UK PMI. The higher uncertainty goes the worse an indicator of growth the PMI becomes. Policy uncertainty was nearly 5 standard deviations above normal in April/May, so the PMI is giving a far too pessimistic steer.

Cautious consumers you say? Retail sales growing the fastest in 3 years and now liquid asset accumulation dropping sharply. For my money the ONS saving rate data are wrong—they often revise it down sharply. Consumers will keep GDP growth ticking along.

The MPC will struggle to cut twice more this year after inflation surged to 3.5%, well above consensus of 3.3% but close to our call of 3.6%. Administered prices drove the surge, and there was a small Easter boost, but underlying pressures are stubborn. 'Skips' are likely now.

Market shifts view on future cuts via @ft . Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the MPC’s voting pattern and statement were “too cautious for us to be able to retain a call of a back-to-back rate cut in June”.

RT @PantheonMacro: "Forecast review: Shadow of tariffs hangs over improving economy" @Robwoodecon #PantheonMacro ht….

The current economic conjuncture is hard enough to diagnose without being unable to trust the data. The saving rate will make good headlines today, but be very wary about data held together with double sided sticking tape. Those Blue Peter creations didn't last long either.

The saving rate depends on measuring income accurately, but that is infected by the unreliable LFS jobs data. Statisticians put sticking plasters over the problems by using payrolls to 'adjust' income, but how much should we trust that after PPI and trade data had mistakes?(7/n).

Back in early 2023 the headlines would have reported a household saving rate surging to 9.3% in Q4 2022, from 6.8% in Q1 2022. now the ONS think the saving rate *fell* in 2022, to 6.5% in Q4 from 7.0% in Q1. From rocketing to falling is quite some change in view (6/n).

What if I told you that first estimates of the saving rate have been revised down 1.1pp on *average* since 1997,. The ONS have already revised down the 2023Q4 saving rate by 2.1pp (5/n)

Granted the quoted 2-year mortgage rate is about 70bp higher now than in early 2010, but the proportion of households reporting that it was somewhat or very difficult to pay the mortgage or rent is falling quick; it dropped from 42% in October 2023 to 31% in February 2025 (4/n)