Ian Shepherdson
@IanShepherdson
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Editor-in-Chief, Pantheon Macroeconomics. A 'danger to the world', apparently. Trial: https://t.co/hjv4yzlxDl Speaking: [email protected]
Montpellier/NY/Ldn/Newcastle
Joined July 2011
34 years is enough for me. I could not have found a safer pair of hands than Sam's, plus he and Olly are way better at Excel than me.
Thrilled to formally become Chief US Economist at Pantheon Macro today. @IanShepherdson has been an incredible mentor since I switched focus from the UK in Feb. I look forward to maintaining Pantheon’s reputation for incisive research on the US economy, supported by Oliver Allen.
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Soaring PPI trade services-gross retail/wholesale margins-seems v odd; margins should fall as distributors eat part of tariffs. But margins are calc'd using *historic* acquisition prices. Buy goods pre-tariff, but sell at post-tariff price -> PPI margins rise, temporarily. QED.
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Some observations about the new BLS head:.- He thinks it is meaningful to annualize price changes over three months and compare to changes over 30 months. - He adds PhD to his handle; the best single indicator of (deserved) intellectual insecurity.- He gets dressed in the dark.
Inflation during Trump's 2nd term is an annualized 1.4%, which is less than the '09-'20 average of 1.8% and less than half the 3.1% annualized rate during Biden's last 30 months - to say nothing of the 8.6% rate during Biden's first 18 months.
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RT @RealEJAntoni: Inflation during Trump's 2nd term is an annualized 1.4%, which is less than the '09-'20 average of 1.8% and less than hal….
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2. The consequence of margin compression will be cost cuts, primarily labor but also capex. Tariffs are a tax. Someone has to pay. It's not foreigners. Higher taxes mean less economic activity. End of.
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1. Let's just say, for the sake of argument, that the slow tariff pass-through to the CPI is due to margin compression in the domestic supply chain (rather than just lags). If you think that would be some sort of free lunch for the administration, I have news for you. It isn't.
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Pantheon's @Robwoodecon has been ahead of the curve on the UK rates story for months. "Ugly optics": fears mount over stubborn UK inflation via @ft.
ft.com
Central bank warns of ‘genuine uncertainty’ over scope for further rate cuts
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Such a creep. And a hack. A creephack, if you like. Trump Administration Live Updates: Hassett Defends Firing of Top Labor Official Over Weak Jobs Numbers
nytimes.com
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Absolutely impossible, is the answer.
I know there are other indicators produced by private companies, just trying to figure out if it would be viable to completely replicate the BLS methodology.
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But the tax cuts are great so. Trump Orders Firing of BLS Chief via @wsj.
wsj.com
President Trump said he directed his team to fire the top Bureau of Labor Statistics official after the bureau issued a weak jobs report on Friday. Trump in a social media post said Erika McEntarfer,...
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The only argument for the Fed not to ease asap is that you believe employers will grant employees bigger raises to offset the tariff hit, thereby triggering the dreaded wage/price spiral. Seems pretty unlikely to me that employers facing extreme endless uncertainty will do that.
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Er, no. The weakest bit of the economy right now is small businesses, which are overwhelmingly financed by banks, which base overdraft rates on the prime rate, which is based on the. fed funds rate (no capitals please).
If you thinking Powell cutting the Fed Funds Rate is going to solve anything, you don’t understand how bond markets work. Powell wrongly cut by 100 bps this time last year, and all it did was RAISE the 10 Year Yield by 100 bps. Nobody borrows based off the Fed Funds Rate.
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Waller was right this week. But let's not get starry-eyed; he was an aggressive and enthusiastic proponent of the "transitory inflation" story in spring '21.
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If you refer to Liberation Day without putting it in quotes, I'm not going read any further.
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Well this one has aged like a fine claret.
Treasures selling-off after ADP and GDP is hilarious.
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Ignore July; initial monthly payroll estimates have become a joke. Big story is May and June now just 19K and 14K, after huge downward revisions. Uncertainty has killed the labor market in just a few months. Quite an achievement.
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3-month average payrolls now a whole 35K, the worst performance (excluding the Covid shock) in 12 years. So much winning.
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H1 average GDP growth: 1.25%. Hard to imagine a bigger win.
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