René Duba
@ReneDuba
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100 Leopard-1 tanks will be delivered to Ukraine earlier than expected. Germany's Rheinmetall worked very hard to make them battle-ready.
In total, some 230 tanks and 1550 armoured vehicles will be delivered. There will also be Leopard-2 tanks.
Leopard-1 tanks in storage
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We noticed the large number of Russian artillery pieces being taken out by Ukraine since a day and a half. Some mentioned huge blasts.
The GLSDBs have arrived on the Ukranian battle field.
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Missiles with up to 300km reach for Ukraine
The UK, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden participate in a fund called IFU (International Fund for Ukraine). The fund has started procurement of high end weapons amongst which missiles that have a reach of up to 300 km.
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Denmark sends all its big guns and all its munitions for these guns to Ukraine.
All of it. Seriously.
🇩🇰🇩🇰🇩🇰👍
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Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk said that Russian planes have been shot down from distances of over 150km away.
Thet means:
1. it wasn't done with Patriot missiles;
2. it wasn't done with NASAMS missiles.
We don't know what else it could have been.
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Why get rid of Orban?
The EU can put Hungary on pause through Art 7.
That will stop Orban's vetoes, while the people of Hungary will retain their priviliges in the EU. Hungarians themselves are more than welcome.
- Russia isn't an EU member, doesn't need representation.
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FrankenSAM:
as Ukraine has almost run out of Buk missiles, engineers from both Ukraine and the US have adapted Soviet era radar & launchers to be able to fire "Sea-Sparrow (RIM-7)" and "Sidewinder (AIM-9)" missiles both of which are available in great quantity.
It works.
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What do sanctions do in Russia?
In the Lukoil NORSI refinery Ukranian drones hit the catalytic cracker. It doesn't work anymore and there are no spare parts.
Only one firm, UOP (from the US) can repair catalytic crackers and they left Russia in 2022.
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Slovak PM Robert Fico, addressed the EU saying that Ukraine was the world's most corrupt country.
Reality check: There are various corruption indexes and Ukraine always appears in the grey middle part. Not at the bottom 25 worst, not in the top 25 best. Just like Slovakia.
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France will be building mobile (Thales) radars for Ukraine that can look very, very far.
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Europe promised 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine. Initially it was thought difficult, but it's now it is even expected to be much more than that: 1.3 million shells.
Needs some extra budget of course.
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Let's look at the BIG picture:
We need to bring Russian missile industry to a stop.
Russia has upped production of everything military they could.
That is mainly missiles, launchers (pic: launch tubes) and ammunitions. And they are increasing production BIG time.
Why?
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Anne Applebaum says we need to shift our mindset from:
'Ukraine has a problem, let's help them'
to :
'Russia is a problem to all of us, we must defeat it'.
And we must defeat it in Ukraine first.
Here's the link:
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What are Putin's short term plans?
Putin will bomb the 1.3 million city of Kharkiv fully to rubble with incleasingly heavy glide bombs unless he is stopped.
Putin will introduce two demolition bombs, the FAB-1500 and the FAB-3000. The numbers indicate kgs.
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pic: FAB-1500
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Russian refinery shuts down after drone attack.
As a result of yesterday's drone attack the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery has completely shut down operations.
The refinery produced exclusively for the Russian army.
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You don't get this from 4 gunmen walking in at ground floor level.
This requires preparation at roof level with lots of fuel or other flamable material at different points of the roof.
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The Netherlands sends 22 boats to Ukraine amongst which 3 CB-90 fast armoured assault boats.
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Is this the final stage for Russia?
It seems Russia now has all its ground troops inside Ukraine. Around 462.000 men. They say they can recruit the number of men they lose. Around 30.000 per month. It's difficult to estimate if Russia can keep up recruiting those numbers.
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Let's look at what the US would have done if Ukranian territory would have been theirs to liberate:
1. Take out Russian artillery: same
2. Hitting command posts, ammo warehouses, troops and infrastructure: same
Comment: the US would have used ATACMS against distant targets.
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Yesterday Germany sent more missiles for the Iris-T system. We don't hear about every hit, but they're there, they're used and they're being replenished.
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Ukraine will shortly receive 60 Cheetah (Gepard) pieces of self propelled air defence guns (paid for by the US) that served for the past 10 years in Jordan.
They are the Dutch version of the Kraus-Maffei Gepard. The main difference being the Dutch radar.
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Why does the US prefer a slow crumbling of Russia?
The public narrative is that we're afraid of nuclear escalation. It plays a role, of course, because nobody wants it (including Russia itself).
But the real reason at the operating level is this:
...
1/
Scary and known since the outset of this war.
My question is: why is the US administration so afraid of defeating Russia (soundly and fast) in Ukraine? Why want a slow crumbling?
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Update on Russia's missile attack on Kyiv yesterday:
Russia had fired a total of 25 missiles at Kyiv (not 18) and all were neutralised in the air.
Russia's claim that one Kinzhal destroyed a Patriot component is false. There is no major damage.
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Fittinng the MBDA Meteor missile to Ukranian F16s would give them an interesting capabillity: downing the Russian bombers that fire cruise missiles and drop glide bombs into Ukraine.
The meteor flies 100-300km at Mach 4 and the best part: it can be fired at low altitude.
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Petraeus called this war "as clear a right-versus-wrong" as we've seen: "a dictatorial, kleptocratic regime denying the right of its neighbor to even exist, invading and doing so without provocation [..] with a…culture of committing war crimes".
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Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) released information yesterday about a "Kontainer horizon radar" being destroyed on 11 April in Kovylkino, Mordovia, Russia. It has a reach of 3000km and it watches well into outer space,
Ukraine attacked it twice.
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France gave two M270s to Ukraine today. They're the Himars's tracked big brother, carrying the double amount of missiles (same missiles, same precision).
They were also called 'the finger of God', because they could completely obliterate one square on a military map.
France delivered two M270 MLRS longe range systems to Ukraine.
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Andrey Lugovoy, the man who prepared Polonium tea for Litvinenko is now himself dying of cancer, probably as a result of handling the radioactive substance.
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In Oct-Nov Russia airlifted S-400s from Kaliningrad to Rostov on Don.
This means:
1. Russia doesn't fear any aggression by NATO at all. A fake argument used in Russia's posturing.
2. Russia isn't a mythical giant with endless stocks of men and weapons. What is spent is gone.
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Belgium will receive its first F35s in 2025. Their 52 F16s will go to Ukraine, they just announced.
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Militarnyi says that Ukraine hit Saky airbase in Crimea a large explosion was heard.
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People wonder why Ukraine initially received a type of ATACMS that was designed for attacking military areas like airfields or large concentrations of troops and equipment.
Well, simply because it was a priority.
What types of ATACMS are there?
And what about upgrades?
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Biden updated himself:
"We want to see Ukraine win and retain the entirety of their territory. The aim is to ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence are secured and that would mean the recovery of territory occupied by the Russians."
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For some reason Russia hasn't put its money on tanks.
They expect that overwhelming amounts of missiles will win them the world.
Their Achilles heel is the modern cutters. They can't make those. Those are Swiss, German, Japanese, South Korean. A full embargo is needed.
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Japan says: Russia is wasting our time in the UN with their Bull Shed propaganda stories about Maidan.
This is very strong language from a country that usually seeks to be extremly cautious and polite. Japan is pointing out Russian harassment of diplomats with its baseless lies.
Statement by Mr. NAGANO Shunsuke, Counsellor, Permanent Mission of Japan to the United Nations, at the Arria-formula meeting on Ukraine
It is quite eye-opening to learn about a history of “Maidan” from the Russian point of view. At the same time, for most of us here and the…
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Lukashenko and his family have boarded a private jet with unknown destination.
Government officials were seen fleeing Moscow.
A 50km Wagner convoy is heading towards Rostov and the regular army makes no attempts to stop them.
The Russian army is surrounding the Duma building.
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As we know, Slovakia's Robert Fico stopped its country's aid to Ukraine.
At least 47000 Slovaks disagreed with their wallets. They campaigned to raise money for Ukraine and already in the first two days they gathered € 2 million.
Yesterday, they were almost at € 3 million.
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My proposal would be to apply Art 7 and put Hungary on pause for collaborating with Putin, a self-declared enemy of the EU, NATO, the UN, the International Criminal Court, Human Rights, a genocidal war criminal and child snatcher.
Orban defends Putin's interests. Away with him.
Hungary has put forward a new demand to lift the €50 billion veto for Ukraine, - Politico, citing sources
Hungarian authorities have made it clear that they can lift their veto on EU aid to Ukraine, provided that the funding is reviewed every year.
"In practice, this would…
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Germany is sending 15 extra Gepards this month with anther 30 coming later.
2 more IRIS-T air defence systems are being built. Those are very modern systems. Even the Bundeswehr doesn't have them yet.
I don't know what happened to the other two IRIS-T. Silent delivery?
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The US has three main political parties:
1. the Democrats
2. the Kremlin, parading under GOP/MAGA flag
3. Whatever is left of the original Republicans
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In the west, near Lviv, Russia entered Ukranian airspace with a Sukoi SU-30 and was shot out of the sky with a 1950's Soviet made Zu-23-2 anti aircraft gun.
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Another Russian A-50 Beriev early warning plane destroyed. This time on the ground.
There are two aviation plants in Taganrog. I think it's this one - the Southern one.
❗ Goncharenko writes that 🇷🇺 A-50 plane was destroyed as a result of a 🇺🇦 night attack on the Taganrog aircraft factory
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For those interested in the Archer. Automated gun. The crew remains in the cabin. Fully shoot by wire. It can shoot within 30s of arriving and be moving off within 30s of shooting. It can hit targets at 50km distance.
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Another Russian refinery burning: Pervyy Zavod, 30km Northwest of Kaluga. 150km Southwest of Moscow.
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Russian forces around Bakhmut have now been beaten. It is fully in Ukranian hands.
Many people have been wondering why Wagner had been fighting so hard. Was it worth 950 deaths?
Was it to highlight Wagner as the group that does what the regular army cannot?
They can't either.
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Confirmation of cracking towers in refineries being beyond easy repair.
Putin was buying gasoline in Belarus and now tries to obtain gasoline from Kazachstan.
So, the damage is substantial and not easily repaired.
Reuters: Russia has allegedly started talks with Kazakhstan about gasoline supplies amid shortages
Russia has requested Kazakhstan to reserve 100,000 tons of gasoline in case of shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks, according to 3 industry sources.
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Ammo
Chech President Peter Pavel said back in February that together, the 50+ friends of Ukraine could lay hands on 800.000 shells.
Now, by end March, more producers have come forward: we can get 1,5 million. Payment in advance.
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Understanding Germany's aid to Ukraine
People wonder how German decision making with regard to military aid actually works. Some think that increasing pressure on Scholz works. I found that Scholz himself had been quite open about what plays a role in decision making.
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It seems Russia may be close to see all their Zoopark-1 counter battery systems in Ukraine destroyed.
It is unknown how many they had to begin with, but it is widely believed 'there weren't many'.
By summer 2023, Ukraine destroyed 6. Now, in December, it is 17 in total. All?
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Yesterday (17 Nov 2023) Ukraine hit the Smolensk Aircraft Factory for a 2nd time.
Smolensk is 474km NNE of Kyiv. It was first hit on 1 October and just as now with multiple missiles. There were various explosions and a fire broke out.
Production of KH-59 missiles has stopped.
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Comparing years, we notice that Ukraine is moving up: less corrupt every year.
What does that make Robert Fico?
A liar? Yes
A demagogue? Yes
Pushing Kremlin disinformation? Yes
He places himself (and Slovakia) outside EU Resolution 2482 (2023)
Is Robert Fico a European? No.
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David Saw on Russia's weaknesses:
"Considering how long Russia has been working on MRL systems and the immense operational experience that it has with such systems, it must be very frustrating for them to see Ukraine using HIMARS and MLRS systems to such great effect."
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Who did it?
Russia did it, says all available proof. Seismographs recorded it. IR satellites saw it. Engineers state from where they did it and that only Russia had access.
Russian operators blew it up from a service tunnel inside the dam's foundation.
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This is very important: data comparisons show that Ukranian numbers of Russians killed were correct all along.
The total number of Russian casualties is over a million of which (in september) there were around 300.000 dead and 700.00 wounded.
Numbers have risen since.
Ukraine is the russian empire's graveyard☠☠☠
November was putin's dying-est month of the war🔥
... though UK mil intel got one thing wrong: 🇺🇦 figures are JUST russians killed (not wounded), as ZSU Col Anatoly Shtefan has said
Times this by 3 to get WIA
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It transpired that Ukraine just asked the US for F18s.
The F18s have a very good radar and can blind enemy radar by electronic means. Standard F-18s can fire radar guided missiles to distant targets, like Russian planes.
The F18 has a higher cruise speed than the F16.
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Turkey seems to be on the way out of NATO and out of preferential treatment by the EU.
Turkey's help to Russia in obtaining sanctioned components for its arms industry, may make Turkey itself a candidate for sanctions.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is poised to deny Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s latest request to purchase Eurofighter Typhoon jets, intensifying diplomatic strains, Bloomberg writes.
The meeting in Berlin on Friday is expected to see Erdogan seeking the removal of a…
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The first Dutch F16s will shortly be expected in Ukraine with Ukranian pilots !
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Ukraine was a country before Rus existed (the kindom aroun Kyiv), before Russia existed before anyone had heard about Moscow.
The name Ukraine was first mentioned in a handwritten manuscript from 1185
The term 'Russia' was coined in 1387, derived from Greek,
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Oleschuk said that just now (24 December) another Russian (Sukhoi) SU-34 bomber has been shot down near Mariupol.
So, just to be clear, this one comes on top of the 3 Russian SU-34 bomber planes that were downed one day earlier.
Oleschuk Is Ukraine's top Air Force Commander.
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Slovakia supported Ukraine until today, 26 October 2023.
Slovakia’s Robert Fico, newly sworn in as prime minister is great friends with genocidal (and wanted war criminal) Putin.
Today he stopped all help to Ukraine.
I call for an EU, NATO, Schengen "Pause button".
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Pantsir factory hit.
The Pantsir is an air defence system for the shorter distances and it works well.
It's a good thing to destroy the factory.
Last night, a Ukrainian drone swarm hit a war production facility in Tula on the territory of the Russian terrorist state. It produced Pantsir air defence systems.
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The losses and the defeats must not exceed the maximum size of deniabillity.
That's an essential precondition. Everyone in the chain of command must be able to lie about it.
Russia's self-annihilation can be kept going as long as you maintain a crumbling pace.
That's it.
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The only other mention was of an old adapted Soviet era S-200 missile with modern electronics fitted.
?
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Meanwhile, some cities in Russia are in the dark, or without heat or without drinking water.
Lack of maintenance? Sabotage? No funds?
Factories go up in flames.
Russia loses most of its advanced equipment and that happens at an unsustainable rate.
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@Nat_Vasilyeva
@JorgSteiper
We may have to wait a bit for more info to surface.
I heard that only 58 of a crew of 510 were saved.
The captain died too, it seems. All unconfirmed.
The crew had their cars parked in the harbour and the cars are still there. Maybe a sign the owners were held up elsewhere.
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If Lockheed can produce slightly under 700 PAC-3 (Patriot missiles) per year, even with the help of MBDA in Europe, why not completely build a second production facility in Europe? And double production.
In times of conflict we need PAC-3 missiles in great numbers.
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ISW:
Ukraine has moved beyond some of the densest minefields, allowing for faster advances.
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It's kept more or less unexposed:
Someone understood that Russia has a self-annihilating system of multilevel lying that they're addicted to even if someone saw the light. They just cannot stop themselves.
It means that everone at every level lies to hide failures.
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Please retweet!
Russia has begun accusing Ukraine of planning to bomb Zaporizhia nuclear plant.
Russia ALWAYS initiates their false flag operations this way.
The charges that Russia placed on the roof of 2 of the NPP reactors seem intended to simulate a missile impact.
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Morozovsk air base was attacked last night. It is from here that Russia launches bombing raids into Ukraine.
Russia claims to have downed all drones (or most drones).
Explosions were heard and columns of smoke were seen.
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So, Putin's plans are:
1. Destroy Kharkiv fully
2. Use demolition bombs
3. Continue rubble/meat grinder tactics
4. Destroy Ukraine's energy grid
5. Destroy unity in the West, have his MAGA office block US aid to Ukraine, etc.
6. Distract the world with 'peace' discussions.
8/8
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Did European countries get the news that Wagner's mercenaries are given real Belarusian passports with false names, so they can freely travel to Europe?
Close the borders?
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Conclusion:
a. Proper arms must be fast-tracked.
b. Additional equipment that is not in itself deemed controversial, first.
c. Ramp up production everywhere, building factories in all countries.
d. Controversies to be resolved fast.
e. Cost sharing among contributors.
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Publicly they all live in denial. By the time the top echelons find out that reality might not be what they thought, they have to lie about it too or it will weaken them both internally and publicly. That makes them addicted.
No information can be trusted.
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I call for a stop of arms deliveries and NATO support to Hungary and Slovakia.
They have chosen to support Putin's genocidal war against civilians.
Putin chose to be NATO's adversary.
EU ideals strongly oppose genocide.
We need an EU, NATO, Schengen "Pause button".
pic: Fico
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That's addiction to lies. The Russian army and leadership is convinced that lies give them advantages, confuse their opponents and prevent them from losing. In reality it's their (slow) undoing.
There's one necessary condition though:
...
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And that will make it into a 'boiled frog' situation (although in reality it doesn't exist, frogs will escape when the water gets too warm).
Those who expose it are removed. Prigozhin exposed it and was removed, Surovikin protested it (not even publicly) and was removed.
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We're not talking about 65 F16s anymore.
We're talking fully disabling Russian bombing capacity with whatever the West would use for that purpose. Destroying Russian radar and air defence, then the airbases and all bombers on it or in the air. In Russia or over Russia.
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Did anyone notice that Ukraine advised people in Crimea to leave?
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Some of the criteria are that these must be hard to defend against and hard to sabotage by jamming and able to function in broad, coordinated attacks, i.e. working together.
The procurement is through urgent bidding rounds.
It means: the IFU wants stuff fast.
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Kasparov and Khodorkovsky in Foreign Affairs:
"Don’t Fear Putin’s Demise"
"Victory for Ukraine, Democracy for Russia"
"Putin’s aggression has exposed the inherent instability of his model of government, which is built on the need to confront foreign enemies. "
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What is needed now?
Of course Ukraine needs ammunition anyway. 155mm grenades by the hundreds of thousands. But that won't be enough now, because the West has procratinated too long.
Ukraine has to go after the bomber planes, the airfields and the factories.
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Russia has thrown an entire army at Avdiivka against a much smaller group of Ukranian defenders.
Russia has met with utter destruction of their men and their arms.
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Apart from missiles, they are procuring a list of very useful items, like portable bridges, mine clearing equipment that fits T-72s, Leopards 1+2, autonomous mine clearing equipment, but also anti drone capabillity.
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There is no reasonable military explanation for Russia buying 45.000 (extra) body bags except for covering the first stages of mass murder of Ukranian civilians.
It's concrete proof of intent of genocide, corroborating Russian statements of intent found earlier.
7/7
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SpaceX admits blocking Ukrainian troops from using satellite technology, says CNN
It is completely immoral to change the terms of what content is allowed on a communication network during a war.
Ukranian drones and tablets depend on Starlink.
They've now become useless.
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Speaker Johnson avoided bringing the Ukraine budget to the vote, but sent the House on holiday before going for the exit himself.
And that's exactly what his puppet masters expect of him: delays.
They know it's a lost cause. Good sense will win. All they can do is delay.
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Oleg Popov, collaborator and a deputy in Kremlin's fake Luhansk 'government' was killed today in an explosion.
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Of course there is something like the Wiesel-2, let's say a "Gepard Light", but I don't know what candidates the IFU has in mind at this point.
Anyway, the fast track procurement of missiles with 300km capabillity is a very good sign.
5/end. -Footnote-
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Why am I more positive than Fiona Hill about US Congress funding of Ukraine?
I don't think these Republicans want to go down in the history books as the ones who reduced the U.S. international position to a second-rate partisan bar brawl nation with nukes.
They are:
1/n
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The single tank that was paraded in Moscow in front of Putin and his guests, turns out to be a Ukranian built tank. They took it from a museum.
It's a T-34 built in Kharkiv, Ukraine.
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We now know from Russian documents that they planned to kill all those Ukranians who wouldn't support Russia's eradication of their country and culture and people.
That means, we're talking about millions.
Putin's plans prepared for a genocide of tens of millions.
3/7
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Specificaly, they want anti-drone capabillity with multiple sensors, like IR, radar, optical for drones flying at less than 50m height. And what I take from specs: they are looking for Gepard-like air defense guns.
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Now we see the Ukranian Army effectively exhausting, degrading and systematically 'sanding down' the Russian occupying forces.
The next phase will see clearing safe routes accross minefield and shortly afterwards the Russians will flee.
Next ...
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Tom Nichols explains why Trump, holding any other office than President would be refused a security clearance. Any security clearance. He wouldn't even be given the most lowly one.
He simply cannot be trusted. All signs are on red.
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