Michael W Crook
@Realmwc
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Chief Investment Officer at Mill Creek Capital Advisors. https://t.co/oNydvEIC9c
Philadelphia, PA
Joined November 2014
"This is totally inexcusable. The BLS just assumed rent/OER were zero for October" -- @fcastofthemonth
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Mortgage payment for median-priced US home at prevailing mortgage rate
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Our weekly commentary ended up being timely with all of the talk about housing affordability and 50 year mortgages. We drew a parallel to the broader universe of private assets. Private asset owners are wed to 2021-2022 valuations and resetting the market will take some time.
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Since we are 1 month into the govt shutdown, our weekly commentary takes a look at the private economic data we have at our disposal. Hiring remains weak versus a year ago, but the unemployment rate remains low. Inflation is somewhere near 3% (and I still find it perplexing that
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In cross holdings land If OpenAI is worth 1TN $MSFT market cap is 7% OpenAI
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Nothing exceptional in regard to magnitude or duration so far (S&P)
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Premium income strategies have exhibited lower Sharpe Ratios than stock/bond blends. Finance theory doesn't always work, but in this case the conclusion is simple: compared to a premium income product an investor can hold a stock/bond blend with similar volatility but higher
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Buffered note strategies have exhibited similar Sharpe Ratios to simple stock/bond blends, which means they can use a stock/bond blend to replicate the volatility and return characteristics of a buffered note strategy with greater simplicity, transparency, and liquidity.
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What did we find? Target outcome strategies, like buffered notes and premium income strategies: 🧠Exploit a behavioral bias known as narrow framing, ❌Generally perform worse in absolute and risk-adjusted terms than a simple blend of stocks and cash, and 👎Are unlikely to
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