Un-common sense
@Random_Gyan
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Business Owner ; Ex - BofA Banker ; IIM Calcutta ('07Batch) Passionate about Investing; Student of History
Kolkata, India
Joined August 2013
1/N Li Lu's is only person Munger trusts with his money besides Buffett. He has a simple investment checklist Is that a good business? Is that Cheap? Who is running it? What did I miss? Using this lens, l will look at #Apar Industries
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This was just a formality. To our surprise he rejected it saying that we couldn't we find a girl in the market for the role. Despite our trying we had to to finally rescind the offer and hire a girl subsequently For most MNCs - Girl is a preferred over equally talented boy 2/2
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‘No Tax on Social Security’ Explained in Senate’s Trump Megabill Read more👇
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Can't be further from the truth. I tell all my nieces that there was never a better time to be a corporate executive for a female in history Anecdote - In 2013 when I was with BofA we hired a male laterally. As part of the process we had to send it to Asia head for approval 1/2
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No matter where ever you see, you see severe risks building up in the equity markets If & when and how markets will fall but if it's close to 2000 it's going to be very ugly My suggestion is diversify. My family have putting more in business and RE (20% IRR). What about you?
🦔A dotcom-style AI crash would wipe out $7 trillion in US household wealth and $16 trillion in total American stock value. About $42 trillion, or 20% of Americans' total wealth, is in American stocks, up four percentage points since the dotcom era. The top 20 S&P 500 firms now
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It was describing 1928-29 period. It could have easily described 1998-2000 period. For all we know this is also describing the 2024-26 period!
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New game you didn't know about Give it a try!
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Pass the popcorn!
🚨OH MY LORD: The S&P 500 Shiller PE (CAPE) ratio has hit 41x, the highest since the 2000 Dot-Com BUBBLE burst. It now sits just below the December 1999 peak of 44x. CAPE is even well above pre–GREAT DEPRESSION levels. When will this get back to the long-term average?
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#AsianPaints #BirlaOpus #JswPaints 5 yrs hence returns <5% CAGR. While valuations are cooled off a bit it's still 60x+. For a co. growing at 10-12% p.a. with so much competition should be trading 20-30x Both new entrants are aggresive and have deep pockets Pain remains
#Asianpaints today made a new all time high and is trading at 21x BV!! instead of 21x earnings!! Market cap is 2L crs (similar to #ITC while at 20% of ITC's earnings and may take 12-14 yrs to reach ITC's earnings!! It may give <FD returns in the next decade. The risk is real.
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#CWC25 Indian women did what the men couldn't. Hats off to the team! What a performance!
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One of the reasons, I have never considered professional money management. Many well-wishers have suggested it. I can sleep peacefully losing my money in the markets. I wouldn't be able to sleep peacefully losing someone else's. And I love my peaceful sleep at night.
An individual investor can always do better than a fund manager. It is a given. But an individual has no constraints. He has unlimited freedom. His speed to market can be much higher. He allocates capital to his portfolio and does not need anybody's Buy in. But if despite all
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Lalit gets it. Tired of #Lenskart. This is about a more imp. topic. Process vs Outcome Almost everyone incl. highly successful people confuse strategy with outcomes. In every field!!! It's refreshing to see someone who gets it and can articulate it so well.
I’ve seen quite a few similar posts lately and let me add my two bits. The core issue here is Process vs. Outcome. What you mentioned, Deepak, is an outcome the stock might very well deliver say 50% returns from here, purely driven by market demand and supply as well. But what
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DSP is in there. Disappointed to say the least. Doesn't matter the allocation size wrt to fund size. @KalpenParekh @SahilKapoor @abhishec_s
Lenskart IPO Update: Lenskart Solutions Ltd has raised ₹3,268.4 Cr from anchor investors ahead of its IPO at ₹402/sh Key anchors include: 🇸🇬 Govt. of Singapore & MAS 🇺🇸 T. Rowe Price, Fidelity, BlackRock 🇮🇳 SBI MF, HDFC MF, ICICI Pru MF, Kotak MF, Axis MF, DSP MF 📈 Total
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Let's say they diluted 50% only over 20 yrs so IPO investor only makes 5x over 20 yrs or 8.3% CAGR Even in the near best case scenario the returns are <10% CAGR. I have ignored many risks. Top being 1) Medical breakthrough 2) Risk of severe competition eventually like paint
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So overall rev is 1.8L crs. And av PBT is 20% and PAT 15%. So profits are 27k crs. But now it's a matured market and it gets Index multiple of 20x. So mkt cap of 5.4L crs or 7.7x over IPO over 20 yrs. But they have to dilute along the way to fund this 20% CAGR growth. 3/N
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So 25 crs Indian buy glasses p.a. in 2045. Lenskart grows without material competition and gets to 50% market share At 5% inflation over 20 yrs becomes 2.65x and av cost of glasses is 7000 against 2500-2600 today So revenues is 90k crs. Let's say magically int. is similar 2/N
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#Lenskart IPO Enough has been written about it. I wanted to think about a scenario where most things work for them. Say in by 2045, 75 crs Indians are wearing glasses and can afford Lenskart kind of glasses. They change them once in 3 years. A lot of them are still poor. 1/N
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I had paid 30-35K premium for 6-7 yrs and during my first admit last year #AdityaBirlaHealth insurance came back stating "x days not justified" I had to stay 8hrs extra in the hospital due to this. Total claim was less than 1L. I ported to #Tata at 20% cheaper
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Put things in perspective Outside of top 100 Nifty companies, 200 out of next 400 companies are trading higher than 40x!!!!!!! 50% fall in these will only bring them to multi year average. 60%+ fall will bring them to some kind of bargain. Just absolutely crazy!!!!!
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From #DSP Netra for Oct - 3 slides caught my attention. All three points to extreme complacency in the markets. 1) SMID median valuations. At 40x it's crazy. No other way to explain this. 2) Vix near all time low!!! 3) Margin financing near ATH @SahilKapoor
@KalpenParekh
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Thank you for the shout out!
This is not a stock recommendation but an example of an asymmetric bet. RBL was a poorly run bank with major issues. Investor community wrote it off. But all the negatives got discounted and reflected in price. @Random_Gyan was repeatedly saying why RBL is a good buy despite
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#RBL Bank Since first time I recommended this as high conviction idea it is 2.36x 3.5x over 3.5 yrs later. (~27% IRR) and 35%IRR since the second time l recommended this here https://t.co/ZkWZGzlViB This is despite detoriation in fundamentals. This is what #MarginofSafety does
1/N #RBL Bank (CMP ~125/-) - My Big Contrarian Bet Across the Fintwit community and general Investor base, there is extreme negativity around RBL Bank and as a result, bank and the co. has been written off by investors. I on the other hand see extremely attractive risk/reward
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This is also my symphony! Came across this beautiful poem by William Henry Channing which was written sometime in mid 1800s. I identify with this a lot!!
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