Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor
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Investor 🧘🏽♂️, Bookworm 📚, Gymrat 💪 Contemplative, Eclectic, Omnilegent. Disciple of Discipline. All views are personal, not endorsements.
Mumbai, India
Joined April 2009
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Yoga guru Swami Sivanandaji wakes up at 3am everyday.
Modern urban white collar labour sleeps at 3am.
Something has gone wrong.
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We live in amazing times.
Senior citizens are investing for long term, compounding wealth;
20 Year Olds are trading intraday.
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India inflation touched 6.95% yesterday. Here is the inflation X-ray, a deeper look at the data.
A thread 🧵
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China:
-China bank deposit rates are under 2%
-Equity returns are negative with no long term trend
-Real Estate has been under pressure.
Where do the Chinese Households invest? 🤔
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MS Dhoni on how to be so cool
Worry about the controllables!
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Why & how does rising Crude Oil hurt India?
A short thread 🧵
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Don't confuse your investment apps with your food delivery apps.
You can get food in 60 mins,
Returns take 60 months or longer.
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Dominator Apple
Apple made $101bn in profits in 2021.
That's more than the profit of all Nifty 50 stocks combined.
That's why Apple's MCap is as large as Nifty 50 Mcap.
It's financially superior to Nifty50 across most metrics.
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If you are a young investor-
-Stop wasting time staring at Nifty and stock charts
-Learn asset allocation
-Create a portfolio, start with diversified funds
-Learn how much of term and health insurance you need
-Focus on your profession
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The best time to buy Indian stocks is when an external crisis roils the market.
In hindsight, US Recessions have been a good time to buy Indian stocks. But it's not easy to have the courage to do it.
What's the next best time?
Read this thread 🧵 to know.
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New investors get lucky if they see a Bear Market at the beginning of their investing journey. And survive it.
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Why has Crude Oil rallied nearly 20% in last 2 days?
What has options got to do with this?
$100 Oil has been a fascinating number. I remember sitting on my trading desk in the winter of 2007 and my fellow traders waiting for hundred Dollar Oil.
Read what $100 Oil did
🧵
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Celebrating my last day today at Edelweiss Wealth. Innings of 14 years come to end. Looking forward to an exciting and even more enriching work.
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Nifty Smallcap Index is-
Up ~3 times from 23rd March 2020 lows of 3202;
Up ~1.55 times from 31st Jan 2020 level of 6226
Up 0.1% from 15th Jan 2018
Context matters, on both price and time.
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Most people die at 25 and aren’t buried until they’re 75.
-Benjamin Franklin
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If they can have bad patches, all of us can
-HDFC Bank
-Novak Djokovic
-Virat Kohli
Everything is cyclical. Stay the course.
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There is fine of Rs. 2000 if you go for a morning jog but bathing or sloganeering with a few million fellows is absolutely free. 🤣
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I hear this often. Market CAN NOT fall because of SIP flows. Here is a take
SIP flows, at the current run rate, avg about 2 Lakh Cr annually. Its a huge number. But let's put a few numbers in prespective.
First,
Over the past three financial year, Mutual Fund Net Purchases of
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Over the last 25 years
-India GDP CAGR ~9%
(Nominal)
-Sensex Index CAGR = 9%
-Sensex EPS CAGR = 9%
Everything is connected
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Today made the supreme equity sacrifice. Sold auto market leader and bought God's own stock- ITC. 🙏
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In the last 6 years I have bought 294 books. Finished 280, unfinished 14 (didn't find useful while reading). Out of this, 118 books read on Kindle. In 2022, I am on my book number 9.
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An ace investor once told me- अगर stock market में पैसे कमाने हैं तो इससे दूर रहो। दूर से देखो।
I was a novice. I thought she is telling me not to invest.
I got the correct meaning much later...
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India's trade deficit has clocked $24.8 Bn a month in FY23 so far. At this rate, the FY23 full year deficit can reach $298 Bn or ~8.5% of GDP.
FY13 recorded the highest trade deficit ($190Bn) ever at 10.4% of GDP. A crisis year.
What's ailing the foreign trade? A thread 🧵
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Stiff competition for NTPC
A lazy cave salamander didn't move from the same spot for 7 years
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By tomorrow evening India would have administered more doses of vaccine than the entire population of US. We are catching pace. The momentum is building.
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What does Fed rate hike, balance sheet run-off and yield curve inversion mean for markets?
A thread 🧵
This topic is likely to dominate the narrative for next few months. Read along and share your views.
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In my 20s as a young investor I thought that seasoned traders and old investors had just spent more time in the markets. That's why they were successful. Not because of grey matter.
Now I understand that 'SURVIVAL' is the biggest edge in stock markets.
Survive.
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A thread-
A Precious Year Ahead - Gold likely to jump to $2600 to $2800 / INR 70,000 to 75,000 in next few years.
🔸Global financial debasement, bigger than any other in history, bigger than GFC
🔸A recurring theme of currency debasement once every 50 years
@ankitapathak_
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India has bought 3 to 4 days worth of supply of Oil from Russia. This is just 1% of our annual consumption. Small no.
If this number rises to 10% (35 to 40 days) it can dent global crude prices.
India= 3rd largest consumer
Russia= 2nd largest producer
Q is, is it possible?
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The massive FII outflow from India is part of what I am calling the 'BIG EXIT' from EMs by Foreign Investors.
The FII money has a component which roams around the world in hunt for higher yields. It is very edgy, short term and opportunistic. I call it the 'Tourist Dollar'.
1/3
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FII bought Indian stocks worth 1.45 Lakh Cr since Nov'20 and Nifty added 3100 points ;
Sold less than 5,000 cr in last few days and Nifty fell a 1000 point.
Hotel California- "You can check-in anytime you want but you can never leave"
#Nifty
#StockMarket
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A mega Thread🧵 on Inflation - Why the bogey of rapid and high rates of inflation may be a false alarm.
A widespread debate has raged on inflation for a while now. Many are concerned about a rise in inflation and believe that this will persist and lead to central bank action.
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India’s Twin Deficits: Is there a case for a stronger Rupee?🧵
With Oil on boil and inflation running hot it's utopian to think that INR can strengthen. Or is it?
The short term is likely to be driven by the confluence of events.
But what's ahead, over a long period?
Read on
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The most devastating habits for young investors
1. No investment goal
2. Rely on fashionable stocks to build portfolio
3. Too much churning and transaction costs
4. Noise from news and daily events
5. Trade derivatives with exposure beyond their portfolio value
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At 2.12 Lakh+, more people recovered in India today than all the 48 European countries combined. Recoveries gaining pace.
#PositiveVibes
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Crude Oil hit $100
-In 2008: India GDP was 1/3rd of (Brazil + Russia)
-In 2011-13: India GDP was 39% of (Brazil + Russia)
-In 2022: India GDP now ~ = (Brazil + Russia)
Commodity producers look jazzy in the short run. Structural growth creeps higher. It's slow but consistent.
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HDFC Bank Market Cap is now 4.88X that of Tata Steel. The lowest level since 2014. Most recent high in 2020 was 18X. 5 yr avg is 10.
What do you make of this?
Will put an interesting intermarket study in upcoming NETRA publication.
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India's core inflation at 3.77%
Repo rate at 6.5%
What are we tightening for?
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The real estate market in India expanded at a CAGR of ~10% from $50bn to $120bn between 2008-17.
It's estimated to expand at a CAGR of 17.7% to $1tn by 2030. It will added $820bn in 10 years from $180bn in 2020.
Will throw a number of opportunities along the way.
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👀On 31st Mar 2014 both Sensex and Hang Seng Index were 22k. Today Sensex is 52K and HSI is 25K.
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Fun Fact:
There are 164 official national currencies in the world,
There are 4000+ cryptocurrencies in the world
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My 3rd blog in the Gurudakshina series. A thread 🧵
Haven't you heard -
"Stocks are going up because there is so much liquidity.”
“Valuations are high and will remain high because there is a flood of liquidity.”
What’s this ‘Liquidity’ that Everyone Keeps Blaming?
Read on
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Every $10 fall in Crude Oil reduces India's Oil trade deficit by $15Bn, inflation by 25bps. India's FY23 Crude Basket average price so far has been $105.
Do the math.
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Why Gold could be 'The' asset to focus on and how to play it?
In 2021, gold hasn't done much. Its down 6% YTD. It was up a clean 20% in 2020.
What could be in store ahead. A thread 🧵 explaining drivers and way ahead.
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I started a Rs. 250 SIP in 2007 in a large cap MF. It's still on. The beauty is that it was always so small that I never ever looked at the value or tried to tinker.
Small becomes big overtime.
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Why there is a case of cyclical recovery in Indian economy? A thread🧵
The flow of financial resources to commercial sector & the economy is a very important indicator to gauge the health of economic growth.
Here is a what the data is saying. Read slowly. It's a complex topic
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My friend told his dad if you hadn't bought your bullet motorcycle and instead invested that money in the stock they would have tons of money.
His dad said in that case you wouldn’t be born today 'cause I met your mother first time while on "Geri" to GCG-11 Chd on that bike. 🤣
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A 🧵
India Crude basket is now above $100.
For the first time since FY14, it has exceeded $100 mark YTD.
But here is a thread which tells you how India's Energy Worries are tapering over the years.
Few talk about long term boring changes.
Here is a take on one such change.
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Why you can just ignore this 2000 note DeMon?
As of March 31, 2023, the value of Rs. 2000 notes in circulation in India was Rs. 3.62 lakh crore.
This constitutes only 10.8% of notes in circulation. The printing of Rs. 2,000 banknotes was stopped in 2018-19.
The value of Rs.
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Just for reference:
Ukraine's GDP ($180Bn) is smaller than that of UP ($230bn).
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🙄Of the 3637 stocks traded on BSE today, 595 or nearly 16.4% of stocks were on upper circuit. 👀
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Cars Sold
2002
-US 17.3 Mn
-China 1.9 Mn
2021
-US 15 Mn
-China 21 Mn
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Food at restaurant in Mumbai costs 2.5x of that in Chandigarh and tastes 0.5x 😬
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Across all UPI payment apps there is nothing faster than
@Paytm
. Fast and reliable.
@vijayshekhar
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There are 28 lakh active cases in India. If the hospitalization rate is 25%(E) at 7lakh and about 20% of them need Remdesivir, means 1.4L X 5 doses or 7 lakh doses. India's capacity was at 40 Lakh doses a month earlier and is now rising to 90 lakh doses a month. Why the shortage?
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Bhav bhagwan che.
But,
Position sizing insan che.
It's in your control. Don't make a mess.
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My 4th blog post in the 'Gurudakshina' Series
21 lessons, A thread 🧵
The year 2021 was full of ‘newness’ for me. I changed roles after nearly a decade and a half. By luck, or by design, I had begun changing how I invest just a few months before the pandemic hit us last year.
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The Elegance of Equal Weight Indexing, A Thread 🧵
Many investors and money managers spend time, intellect and effort to beat their benchmarks. It’s not easy.
But what’s easy is to use the benchmark, like the Nifty Index, and use it to beat itself.
This thread is about this.
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All crashes begin with corrections,
All bull markets begin with a bounce.
Never shortchange your strategy.
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Most hated bull market? 🤔
-Retail participation at the highest level
-MF equity AUM at Highs
-FII flows steady
-IPOs booming
-Demat accounts at record
Where are the haters ?
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In US only 30 Lakh workers are engaged in agriculture (less than 1% of population).
In India 60% of population is agriculture dependent. As per PM KISAN, there are 11.1 Cr farmer beneficiaries.
We need massive job creation in value added manufacturing, services.
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Assuming a Rs. 850 EPS for FY23, Nifty now trading below 20 times after quite a while.
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“There’s no investment idea that is so good that it can’t be spoiled by too high an entry price.”
-Howard Marks
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Bank Nifty (LTP 33,532) is headed higher, much higher.
Here are the reasons why Banks could be one of the best performers ahead. A quick thread 🧵
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At $70 Oil - world will plunge into recession as Oil rises to $100
At $45 Oil - world will plunge into recession as demand is weak and Shale producers go bust
Some alarmist always ready.
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The greatest sin is to think yourself weak.
-Swami Vivekanand
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Lost 50Lb (22.7Kg) in the last 130 days, muscle mass up 2%, fat percentage down 13%. Some more kilos to shed to reach 1st target. Then increase focus on adding more stamina and endurance.
COVID indiscipline eliminated.
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Hang Seng Index is back near its 52 week low.
5 Yr return = 0%.
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It takes years to realize that not losing money and not trying to make it quickly is the key to actually making it.
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Nifty 12 month blended forward P/E now below 19 times.
Earnings rising, valuations correcting. ✔️
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The Coming Collapse of Inflation and How To Benefit From It
@ankitapathak_
and I wrote a note on why red hot inflation is likely to cool.
Read this intro thread 🧵with the link to full report.
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At 14 cr doses, (2.2cr fully vaccinated) we are approaching ~10% of population who has received atleast one dose. At current pace of 2.5Mn doses a day + extrapolated infections we may reach near zone of herd immunity in next 60 to 90 day. Hold on.
#PositiveVibes
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Russian Central Bank (Bank of Russia) raises benchmark rates from 9.5% to 20%
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Nifty TTM P/E ratio getting closer to 2020 crack.
Now below 10 Year rolling average.
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I bought a Royal Enfield Bullet 350 in 2001 for Rs. 56,000.
I sold it for Rs. 28,500 in 2005.
The (same registration number) bike was sold for Rs. 60,000 in 2010.
That's what's happening with FII's
#FII
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Number farmers in US: 20 Lakh;
Software engineers in India 60 Lakh
US Agri exports: $177bn;
India Software exports: ~$150bn
Long way to go. Need more export excellence.
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