Robert McDonnold
@RMcdonnold
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Petroleum engineer. Macro musings, ETFs, and portfolio design
Midland, TX
Joined November 2019
K shaped recovery . New developments don’t get built in the top neighborhoods . Tear downs are too limited to move the needle significantly.
For the first time ever, it is considerably cheaper to buy a new house than to buy an existing house. Likely signals an inflection point in the housing market.
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RT @RMcdonnold: Something to be aware of for everyone buying 30 yr TIPS for a long term hold. I remember reading an @larryswedroe article h….
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Open your eyes and just buy real assets. Don’t lend to them with TIPS, don’t lend to them nominally, just give them the finger and stop caring about debt and the path to oblivion the US is marching towards.
In short, even though the holy grail of retirement planning is the 2%+ TIPS ladder granting a 4% SWR, I would be wary of assuming CPI will track cost of living increases once the debt monetization spiral really kicks off.
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RT @RMcdonnold: For this reason US gov is absolutely incentivized to manipulate CPI data as low as they can get away with, using hedonic ad….
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RT @RMcdonnold: As @LukeGromen has pointed out, the portion of US unfunded liabilities that is indexed to inflation is significant. Say you….
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Oil may only be at $62 but once we cut completions to zero, allow production to collapse, lose market share, and all go bankrupt you guys are totally going to be caught swimming naked when crude spikes to $75
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need a gold + treasury $TLT stack @JeremyDSchwartz
buying the gold dip . bitcoin dip can be bought if you are a believer . $BTGD down 4%+. where is my gold + trend or gold + bonds stack.
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$CAOS still bid over $BOXX past week . looks like week long vol crush of short term puts while bidding of more convex put spread strategies . markets acting like jobs report never happened
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Can you imagine how in trouble we would be if this didn’t happen, and US production didn’t decline into these OPEC increases? Think of the wells that would have been brought on at 90% initial declines at below full cycle breakeven prices?.
Panic dump for crude is gonna end up being the best thing that ever happened for US energy cos . A little capital discipline, as a treat.
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RT @LukeGromen: US 10y Term Premiums (blue, RS) v. 10y Chinese government bond yields (red, LS), 3q14-present. Consensus says Chinese 10y….
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RT @LukeGromen: A few years ago, some economists and investors laughed at us when we said the US economy was heading toward “Argentina with….
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my mind's telling me no, but my body, my body is telling me yes $UNH
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out of this one . holding $CAOS . think we get Monday follow thru with selloff
short $VXX here.
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Trend followers realizing they are long literally everything red today
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$TUA out.
2y at 3.75% would not trade it going lower.
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Trend followers checking to see if they are long copper today
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