Ricardo Reis
@R2Rsquared
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AW Phillips Professor of Economics @LSEecon. Colunista @expresso. Director @CFMUK
London, England
Joined November 2012
RT @DeRidderMaarten: 🚨New paper+data with @LukaszRachel🚨. ''Emissions-Adjusted Total Factor Productivity'' . 👉Productivity growth>2005 is l….
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Indeed.
Or worse, that the fed will react to supply - stagflation with demand stimulus and turn a one time price level rise into inflation. 1979.
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Exactly.
The relevant question is not will tariffs cause an increase in prices: they will. The relevant question is whether the Fed can/should look through that price increase or whether they need to worry that it will spark ongoing inflation by shaping inflation expectations.
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RT @ilzetzki: @CFMUK survey on @UKLabour's first year in government. * 45% of the panel thinks the policies will contribute moderately t….
cfmsurvey.org
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RT @al_antdp: NĂŁo identificando quem sĂŁo os “ricos”” tudo Ă© possĂvel dizer. O q se passa Ă© que sĂł 6% das famĂlias declara rendimento acima….
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RT @PatzeltPaula: Calling all Macro PhD students based in and around London!.Join us for a workshop at LSE on 14 Nov to get to know each ot….
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RT @R2Rsquared: @vonderleyen is taking flak for the trade deal she signed with the US, but could she have done better?. Yes. Not in Scotl….
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The @IMFNews October Outlook report for Europe had this stunning graph. Every single office in the @EU_Commission should have a print-out of this figure on the wall. Every working day should be spent on it. That is the best response to US trade policy.
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It is possible in theory for the US to gain as a whole through what is known as a “terms of trade manipulation effect.” But in the applied case of this rise in tariffs, I find the chances that this makes American consumers better off to be quite unlikely.
The biggest loser---by far---from raising tariffs on EU exports to the US from 1.2% (last year) to 15.1% (new deal) is the American consumer. A win for the US? Do you also think that the US would win if it introduced a federal sales tax on some goods?.
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There is also no investment deal in a 600bn FDI EU->US promise. All the EC can commit is to "Promoting and facilitating mutual investments". This is at the same level as politicians striking a deal with the electorate to deliver a X% GDP growth rate.
On the EU-US deal:.(i) There is no arms deal. There couldn't be one. The EC has no authority on defense. (ii) The energy deal makes no sense. From $92bn per year to $250bn how? And firms and consumers choose how much energy to buy from whom, not the EC.
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On the EU-US deal:.(i) There is no arms deal. There couldn't be one. The EC has no authority on defense. (ii) The energy deal makes no sense. From $92bn per year to $250bn how? And firms and consumers choose how much energy to buy from whom, not the EC.
ec.europa.eu
On 27 July 2025, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald J. Trump agreed a deal on tariffs and trade.
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The biggest loser---by far---from raising tariffs on EU exports to the US from 1.2% (last year) to 15.1% (new deal) is the American consumer. A win for the US? Do you also think that the US would win if it introduced a federal sales tax on some goods?.
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RT @gp_mihalache: I assign this in my 2nd year class, with good results so far. Great for students with somewhat limited exposure to moneta….
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RT @int_mon_econ: Highly recommended!. "How do central banks control inflation? A guide for the perplexed" by Laura Castillo-Martinez and R….
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RT @AEAjournals: Forthcoming in the JEL: "How Do Central Banks Control Inflation? A Guide for the Perplexed" by Laura Castillo-Martinez and….
aeaweb.org
(Forthcoming Article) - Central banks have a primary goal of price stability. They pursue it using tools that include the interest they pay on reserves, the size and the composition of their balance...
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Stan Fischer was one of the most impressive people that I have ever had the fortune to meet and interact with. (And my intellectual grandfather in advisee lineage.).
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If I had to choose between models or Stan Fischer to run monetary policy, I’d choose Fischer. Otherwise, give me models. This running joke among applied macroeconomists gives you a sense of Fischer’s influence and the respect he deservedly earned.
RIP Stan. Stan was my mentor and my friend. He was an outstanding economist, an outstanding policy maker, but even more importantly, a great human being. Science, commitment, honesty, and humility at the service of humankind.
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RT @Usama_Polani: Stanley Fischer— so many contributions but I want to highlight. His speech on need for an international lender of resort….
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