Jason A. Churchill
@ProspectInsider
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VP of Data & Player Analysis @ftrstarsseries EX: ESPN, CBS Radio MY STUFF: https://t.co/bKhVr2Dr95 NOT A FAN ACCOUNT.
Joined May 2009
▶️ NEW episode of Baseball Things https://t.co/kCpXPthl9f
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Top 10 Remaining Free Agent Targets for the Mariners
midnightmariners.com
It's not an easy list to cut through, considering budgets, cost, perceived player preferences, and common sense.
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“The Seattle Seahawks are tired of being disrespected and they want to prove they’re a Super Bowl contender.”
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Baseball Things Podcast Weekly Roundup
midnightmariners.com
The latest episode of the podcast...
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Top 10 Remaining Free Agent Targets for the Mariners
midnightmariners.com
It's not an easy list to cut through, considering budgets, cost, perceived player preferences, and common sense.
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People know their posts can be viewed by others, right? Right?
Amed Rosario and Jorge Polanco are pretty much the same damn player, but the Yankees are paying Rosario $2.5 million, and the Mets are paying Polanco $40 million.
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Roger Craig, who is criminally underrated by the younger generations.
Age yourself by naming an NFL running back you grew up watching. I'll start, Priest Holmes.
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Does defense, baserunning, injury & performance risk not matter? This is hilarious.
They are talking about over $400 MILLION for Kyle Tucker David Stearns and the Mets just got Jorge Polanco for just $40 million Batting Average: Tucker .266 Polanco .265 Home Runs: Tucker 22 Polanco 26 RBI: Tucker 73 Polanco 78 OPS: Tucker .841 Polanco .821 … so
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Scouting the Mariners' Rule 5 additions (and losses)
midnightmariners.com
Seattle added a hitter and an arm in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft Monday.
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@SanJacRaven43 @ftrstarsseries Between myself and @ProspectInsider with his player stories coming up and the @DTGotera videos from these Zooms, we’re going to make this thing BIG on our end. Excited to see it all go down next month, look forward to seeing you as well!
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@HoundHounderson @gbellseattle @seattlechildren @rodmarphoto Buddy, no one is stopping you from volunteering in silence. Head on over.
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Baseball Things Podcast Weekly Roundup
midnightmariners.com
The latest episode of the podcast...
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Winning teams need probability AND production, and Story gives you neither. For me, Seattle is not in a position to take on such a huge risk when the payoff is an average bat at second base... even if the trade included some kind of way to cut his salary in half.
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He hasn't played 2B since 2022 but athletically is a decent bet to manage to solid-average levels. Story affinity with the IL is a huge problem. He played 157 games in 2025, but before that it was 26, 43, and 94, and since the move to Boston his K rates have jumped.
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Story is owed $55M gtd through 2027 -- his age 33-34 seasons -- which includes a $5 million buyout of a club option for 2028. Defensively he's capable at SS, but the metrics didn't like him at all in 2025 (which isn't conclusive, but something to consider)...
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Story has been an average hitter with Boston -- if we ignore the awful 2023 when he went .203/.250/.316 in 43 games. He's not walking much these days, but did hit 25 homers this past season at age 32.
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▶️ A question I won't get to on tomorrow evening's episode of Baseball Things: What about Trevor Story for the Mariners? A thread.
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I start with wRC+ for hitters and then chase metrics that may confirm or contradict. Length of resume, age, trends, traditional stats like AVG/OBP/SLG, contact rates, walk rates... but also raw SwStrk %, performance vs pitch type/velo, standard splits, chase, Z-Contact, etc.
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If a player is a 4.1 fWAR player and another is a 2.2 fWAR player for a year or time period, the 4.1 fWAR player was significantly more valuable. No one believes WAR, either formula, is so far off it can make a 2-win value error. It's not predictive as a standalone, however.
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