Joe Doyle
@JoeDoyleMiLB
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Senior Analyst - @FSS_PLUS ( @FtrStarsSeries ) Host: Over-Slot Previous: MLB Consulting Scout School Certified Rapsodo Certified 2 Driveline Certifications
Joined July 2011
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11
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According to Forbes, the average valuation of every Major League Baseball team has grown by close to $140,000,000 every single year over the last decade.
Owners could end this lockout comfortably by agreeing to spend just ~$10m more each year.
Do not side with the owners.
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980
6K
BREAKING: Multiple agents receiving messaging today that there will NOT be a minor league season, rather, an MLB expanded roster and a developmental league playing out of ST facilities.
Huge.
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4K
This is the first time the Seattle Mariners have controlled their own destiny with 5 games or less to go since 2001.
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182
2K
Nothing like watching college athletics die on a Friday. Can’t wait for the heated rivalry between UW and…. Maryland.
Indiana vs. Oregon each year should be fantastic television.
Destroyed a beautiful sport.
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142
2K
Anyone want to see what an 80-grade arm looks like? Stanford OF Braden Montgomery is the real deal. 2024-eligible.
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2K
The
#Mariners
are in the unique position of likely being awarded a "second" first round draft pick at the end of the first round if Julio Rodriguez wins ROY, per the new CBA. Also in the lottery for a Comp B pick. Plus SS Felnin Celesten signs in January. Their farm is fine.
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181
2K
Sources: The New York Mets are hiring Houston Astros Scouting Director Kris Gross to oversee their amateur scouting. It is believed his title will be VP of Amateur Scouting.
Gross has spent the last 12 years w/Houston, including the last 5 as their scouting director.
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268
2K
Let's do payroll!
The average payroll in 2011?
Roughly $93 million
The average payroll in 2021?
Roughly $104 million
Payrolls have jumped about 12% in a decade.
Meanwhile, the average value of a team has jumped 365% ($523m to $1.91b) in that same timespan.
57
292
2K
The Chicago Cubs are the favorites to sign Dominican SS Fernando Cruz, the top prospect in the 2024 international FA period. Described as the "total package"... solid hit/solid power. Plus athlete, "true shortstop". 55 runner. Chance for 5 tools. "Consensus No. 1 guy."
24
151
2K
If Florida State fans and the college football world feel robbed today at the hands of “committees” and “revenue upside”, boy do I have a story for you out of Pullman, WA and Corvallis, OR.
22
250
2K
So College Gameday decided to host a segment for Pat McAfee and Desmond Howard to shit on Washington State University football? After 290 consecutive weekends of Ol’ Crimson loyally traveling, showing up for their ignorant asses?
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1K
The Atlanta Braves are the favorites to sign Venezuelan SS/3B Jose Perdomo during the 2024 international signing period. Big power & bat speed. Plus throwing arm. Solid athlete. Expected to receive one of the biggest bonuses next winter. Consensus Top 3 guy in the 2024 class.
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149
1K
Tennessee CF Drew Gilbert may surprise everyone and be a Top 15 pick this season. 99th percentile exit velocity flashes, a true CF with plus speed and a 55+ arm. 1:1 BB/K ratio. 80, 80, 80-grade competitor. Slashing .386/.480/.693 w/9 HRs and untapped SB potential. Pay the man.
17
70
1K
Imagine landing 8 total years of Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger and Yu Darvish and surrending just one Top 100 prospect in the process.
Good grief,
@Padres
.
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146
1K
It's clear Scott Servais has had a positive impact on the Mariners, the clubhouse, and everything in between. I have a hard time believing anybody else could squeeze this much production out of the roster like he has. He's the glue. He should be extended.
30
72
1K
The
#Mariners
have quite a development story in 19-yo SS Axel Sanchez. Slashing .343/.439/.686 in 123 PA at Modesto. Folks inside org. believe he's a surefire SS. Exit velos continue to grow. Untapped physicality. 55 glove+arm. "Reports and numbers are, frankly, over-the-top."
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64
1K
Multiple sources: The Seattle Mariners are calling up right-handed pitcher Bryce Miller. He will start Tuesday against Oakland.
Miller, the Mariners 4th-round pick from the 2021 MLB Draft, will be the fifth player from that class to debut (Dodd, Miller, Bibee, Silseth)
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135
1K
Forget Seattle, the league is lucky to have Julio Rodriguez.
10
38
1K
The Seattle Mariners are set to sign 16 YO Nicaraguan RHP Kendal Meza on January 15 as well. 6-foot-1, 155-lb righty is already up to 93/94. Lightning-quick arm. Flashes slurvy breaking ball. Reliever-ish actions/traits. Could throw triple digits. Hardest thrower of SEA class.
29
57
1K
Jarred Kelenic is batting .400/.432/.857/1.290 with an 18.9% K-rate in 13 games this spring. He's hitting over .500 against lefties. And he's doing it all against reasonably solid competition. Don't know what more you could hope to see from the guy this spring if you're Seattle.
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58
955
Multiple sources: The Seattle Mariners are calling up RHP Juan Then. He will be in Seattle tomorrow.
Then, 23, was a Mariners int’l free agent signing in 2016. He’s been up to 99 with a breaking ball that has improved a ton over the last calendar year. 11 K in 9 IP at AA.
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931
Tampa Bay Rays 3rd rounder Tre' Morgan is off to a scorching start to his pro career. Slashing .345/.441/.483 with just ONE strikeout in 34 plate appearances (2.9%). Tampa splitting his time up equally between left field and first base.
📽️
@raysfarmreport
16
88
920
Marco Gonzales:
- He's done his job 7 out of his 10 starts
- Good dad
- Good husband
- Fiery competitor
- Fantastic representative of his team/city
- Top 10 all-time in Wins, Win% and K for Seattle
Yet I see people from his fanbase actively root against him.
Asinine.
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47
913
#Mariners
' Jerry Dipoto announces Julio Rodriguez the x-rays are negative right now. He's being assessed by trainers as we speak.
23
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904
Highest Batting Avg. from 2023 Draft Picks (min 25 PA)
1. Colt Emerson, Mariners -- .524
2. Brett Callahan, Tigers -- .464
3. Cole Carrigg, Rockies -- .437
4. Tre' Morgan, Rays -- .421
5. Quincy Scott, Rangers -- .418
6. Kyle Teel, Red Sox -- .417
7. Edrick Felix, White Sox --…
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71
898
I'm not sure the baseball consensus understands how much talent the Baltimore Orioles possess.
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890
The Mariners are still set to sign Dominican 1B/OF Lazaro Montes this weekend to a deal exceeding $1m. Extremely physical bat (6-4, 215) at just 17 YO. Believed by some to be one of the Top 5 international amateurs. Mammoth power projection. Receives Yordan Alvarez comps.
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The Mariners may have landed another gem in SS Colt Emerson. Kid is slashing .500/.591/.833/1.424 so far in Arizona.
His batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS all rank 1st among all HS draftees (min. 20 PA) thus far.
10
79
826
Congrats to Julio Rodriguez on winning the AL Rookie of the Year.
Because Seattle elected to start Rodriguez on the Opening Day roster, among other qualifiers, the Mariners are set to receive an additional draft pick "immediately following the end of the first round (in 2023)."
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41
794
Manoah led the American League in HBP in 2021.
Manoah led the American League in HBP in 2022.
He hit his 7th and 8th batters today despite throwing just 75 IP thus far.
I understand he's not trying to do this, but please, if you can't control your fastball, stop throwing it.
Scary moment as Taylor Ward takes an Alek Manoah pitch up high.
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3K
38
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Absurd.
Over the last five years, here are all the college players who posted a single season with a chase rate less than 14.5% and an average exit velocity north of 95.5 mph (min 150 pitches seen).
1) 2023 Dylan Crews, LSU
2) 2019 Adley Rutschman, Oregon State
That's it.
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75
782
Spoke with
#Mariners
RHP prospect Bryce Miller about his offseason training thus far. Says he's working to keep his slider around 82-84 (like 2022) but has it approaching 20" of sweep. Was closer to 13-16" of sweep in 2022. Here it is.
No. 1 prospect in Seattle's organization.
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55
770
I spent the last three weeks talking to scouting directors and cross-checkers about Tennessee RHP Chase Dollander. One theme became clear:
Chase Dollander is special.
He's being talked about with the likes of Gerrit Cole and Steven Strasburg.
14
101
751
The Padres traded 33(!!) players for... this?
J. Musgrove: 3.4
B. Snell: 1.4
Y. Darvish: 1.0
A. Nola: 0.7
A. Adams: 0.4
A. Frazier: 0.1
T. Williams: 0.1
M. Clevinger: 0.0
D. Hudson: -0.2
J. Marisnick: -0.3
V. Caratini: -0.4
6.2 bWAR for 167 combined years of team control...
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The Washington State & Oregon State atrocities aside, you really think UW fans are going to enjoy watching their team fly to the Midwest or the Rust Belt each week?
The I-5 rivalries are dead. They're gone. No more. Money has created NFL-lite and the product is going to suffer.
Nothing like watching college athletics die on a Friday. Can’t wait for the heated rivalry between UW and…. Maryland.
Indiana vs. Oregon each year should be fantastic television.
Destroyed a beautiful sport.
168
142
2K
97
43
731
From this chair, it’s hard to look at this offseason as being good for the sport. When one team has spent $1.17 billion on future payroll and 15 others have combined to spend $50 million, you might have a problem.
46
63
719
Whoever wins the lottery tonight will have their eyes set on LSU OF Dylan Crews.
Crews is the *ONLY* player returning to school in 2023 with a hard hit percentage greater than 65% on 93+ mph FBs (min 12) and greater than 45% on breaking balls (min 30).
8
56
718
It's probably time we stop calling Evan White's glove a 70 tool.
I mean this objectively. This is elite, 80-grade stuff. Evan White might win a gold glove his rookie year. Can't say I've seen anything like it on a nightly basis before.
#Mariners
21
82
705
Leaning on
@PassonJim
a bit here...
Mike Trout's last 14 hits in Seattle:
Homer
Homer
Homer
Single
Homer
Double
Single
Single
Homer
Homer
Homer
Homer
Homer
Homer
And they *continue* to pitch to him with first base open.
21
97
699
Keep an eye on Tarleton State RHP Will Stevens over the next 10 mo. A Wichita State transfer, was largely 92-97 in 2022, touched 99. Was mostly 92-95 in the Draft League.
He touched 102 w/cut twice yesterday v. Texas State. 101+ four times.
If command improves, easy to dream.
7
56
673
Already flush w/elite prospects, the Baltimore Orioles are positioned to potentially secure THREE first round picks in 2024.
*Their organic pick
*Comp Round A pick (Will be pick No. 31)
*PPI draft pick awarded if Gunnar Henderson wins RotY.
Reminiscent of Mariners 2023 Draft.
19
75
673
Wow. Cade Horton goes no. 7 to the
#Cubs
. He's worth every penny. Showed who he really was his last 5 starts. Up to 98 with a high-spin, power breaking ball that projects plus. Two dynamic breakers. Already over TJ. Horton could be a frontline guy. Those are rare in this class.
19
106
638
The Seattle Mariners just surrendered an 11-2 lead in the 6th inning against the Royals. Kansas City has scored 10 runs in the inning and now have a 12-11 lead.
You read that correctly.
26
62
626
The Seattle Mariners are favorites to sign Venezuelan OF Yorger Bautista in the 2025 international class. Nicknamed "The Beast" in Venezuelan circles, Bautista features big athleticism + ceiling. Enormous arm strength and present offensive tools. Volatility in the swing/profile.
24
59
635
The
#Mariners
have quite a unique luxury at the moment.
Jarred Kelenic is now the best outfield prospect in baseball according to MLBPipeline.
Julio Rodriguez is now the best outfield prospect in baseball according to Baseball America.
Two-headed monster out there.
19
67
617
Pittsburgh Pirates select Paul Skenes. Sources say deal is in the neighborhood of $9.25m.
10
71
621
That brings the Seattle Mariners draft haul for the first round to SS Colt Emerson, OF Jonny Farmelo, and SS Tai Peete.
This is….. a lot of upside.
11
42
603
Charlie Condon homered twice today bringing his season total to 26 and his career total to 51.
He's two homers shy of Gordon Beckham's single season school record (28), as well as two shy of Beckham's career mark (53).
Beckham: 197 games
Condon: 94...
8
37
611
The Mariners shut out the Astros on back-to-back days and Abraham Toro was responsible for 100% of the RBIs in both games.
Serendipitous.
8
28
584
Seems to be a loud industry opinion that Milwaukee Brewers 2nd Rd pick RHP Jacob Misiorowski is the steal of the draft. A whole lot of "He's a Top 100 guy already" going on. Got paid like a first rounder too. Up to 102. Low 90s SL. Unbelievable athlete for his 6-7 frame.
5
59
588
George Kirby has set a new MLB-record (since stats began collecting in 1988) with 24 consecutive strikes to start a ballgame.
6
70
587
LSU RHP Jaden Hill is out throwing darts. He's 97-98 consistently at the knees. Finding feel for slider right now, finishes off final two Air Force hitters with front-door sliders ~83mph. 👀
11
61
571
I was a bit reluctant to crown Dylan Crews outright the best player in the country this preseason. Wanted to see how others looked out of the gate.
Through 16 G, he's slashing .510/.632/.922 w/17 BB and 9 K
He's the best player in the country, bar none.
16
53
576
The Seahawks are at the doorstep of a long, dark era of football. The front office sacrificed the future for one or two more bites at a rotten apple.
40
34
559
Everyone will bag on Jason Myers for missing a 40-yard field goal to go up 10, but Russell Wilson taking a 14-yard sack on 3rd and goal the play before should be a bigger narrative here, especially in the snow. Cost his team points.
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31
560
@BNightengale
Dude was charged with aggravated assault by strangulation and battery/family violence and suspended 20 games by MLB after the video of the event came out.
Generous use of the word “greatness”, Bob.
26
11
572
Perhaps the biggest outlier for 2024, Iowa RHP Marcus Morgan has grabbed 99 in side bullpen sessions out of an extremely low 5’3” release. At his best, he’ll hold 17” of carry. Couple that with a hellish upper-80s sweeper and he might have the most unique stuff in the class.
8
34
562
Really no way around it: Kris Bryant (or to a lesser degree Trevor Story) has become critical for the Mariners. Seattle has payroll flexibility, but struggling to spend it.
If the team is forced to dip into robust farm system to acquire impact bat, that's troublesome.
44
48
540
We had Chase DeLauter the best player available in this draft in March. Special bat. Arguably the best player in the 2021 Cape. Plus tools everywhere. Run, throw, power, field, etc... Swing is unique and divisive. Kyle Tucker type? Huge ceiling.
#Guardians
nailed this.
8
105
544
I'm not sure the general public realizes that Bryce Miller is presently, almost unanimously in baseball circles, a much better pitching prospect than Jack Leiter or Kumar Rocker.
18
53
534
Yeah, these 91 mph sliders from Chase Burns are going to be a problem in 2024.
His first 8 pitches yesterday?
98
100
100
100
99
100
99
99
If it clicks, the guy certainly has the arm talent to be the first arm off the board in July.
2
33
541
The smallest market team w/the smallest valuation, the Kansas City Royals, has seen its Forbes valuation jump on average $71,000,000 each year.
It's an ownership-greed problem.
(Kudos to KC, who generally spend more than their small-market peers and take care of their people.)
According to Forbes, the average valuation of every Major League Baseball team has grown by close to $140,000,000 every single year over the last decade.
Owners could end this lockout comfortably by agreeing to spend just ~$10m more each year.
Do not side with the owners.
101
980
6K
11
83
532
It’s been a topsy-turvy season for Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez, but his .153 batting average and 36.3% K-Rate in the 9th inning does seem to stand out.
Also hitting just .174 in “high leverage” spots in 2023.
Game has seemingly sped up on him in big moments at times this year.
48
50
534
This is Jack Penney.
He plays 3B for Notre Dame.
He hits the ball very, very hard and doesn't chase.
He is 2024 draft-eligible.
You should remember Jack Penney.
10
37
530
Per multiple sources, the Seattle Mariners are promoting 1B Tyler Locklear to Arkansas. He will report to Double-A in the next few days.
8
48
525
Pretty incredible all of the Mariners that got thrown at have been thrown out of the game after the umpire was too cowardice to throw out the Angels pitcher throwing at them.
Raisel Iglesias gets tossed, but how valuable is a closer on a team that can't sniff a lead this month?
18
39
519
Extra innings rules in baseball are horrible. Completely random. Two teams gut out 9 well-played innings and one team gets a 80-run CF starting at 2B while the other gets a 30-run 1B. Opens up chess for one team and not the other. Doesn’t matter the result. Cheapens the product.
62
22
527
At WSU, the administration forces students out of their lucratively paid parking spots from Thursday through Sunday so alumni who graduated 40 years ago can go on a 4-day bender.
Go Cougs.
Due to classes in session, there will be no tailgating on the USC campus or village before Friday’s game. This includes the set-up of tents, chairs, tables, and/or picnic blankets for the purpose of serving meals or drinks. The tailgating at Expo Park will also be limited. 👎🏼
30
18
54
7
68
518
JR Ritchie and Owen Murphy in Atlanta is going to be a huge problem for the NL East.
6
77
517
Hard to know this early if Jarred Kelenic has truly turned a corner, but his first series back this weekend should encourage folks.
6 for 16, HR, 3 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
.375/.444/.750/ 1.194... 16.7% K-rate
41% Swing/80% Z-swing/21.1% O-Swing
9
28
519
The Arizona Diamondbacks will likely secure an extra draft pick in 2024 provided Corbin Carroll does, in fact, win Rookie of the Year.
They’re also set to land a Comp A pick (Pick no. 32)
Like the Orioles, Arizona will likely see three picks inside the Top 35 in 2024.
10
29
516
Mariners RHP Emerson Hancock has been named to the 2022 MLB Futures Game.
3
29
515
HR No. 5 for Konnor Griffin. No-doubter. He's added 47 stolen bases in 19 games.
.682/.789/1.227/2.016
New board drops on Monday and he's made a notable jump.
9
29
524
A guy not enough people are talking about for the 2024 MLB Draft is South Carolina RHP Roman Kimball. Only 25 IP under his belt. Missed 2023 recovering from TJ. Up to 95 w/a 58" rel height. Routinely gets 19'-21" of IVB.
He's a unicorn.
CB, CH, SL all flash. Weekend starter.
10
38
520
The San Diego Padres are favorites to sign Dominican SS Leodalis "Leo" De Vries when the 2024 international FA period opens on Jan. 15, 2024. De Vries is a consensus "Top 2" prospect in the 2024 class. Sky high ceiling, wiry, athletic, rangy, power from both sides of the plate.
14
77
509
Wow.
#Angels
first round pick, SS Zach Neto, has been promoted to Double-A. Neto has just 7 High-A games under his belt. He slashed .200/.355/.400 in 31 plate appearances. Los Angeles has clearly seen enough to believe he'll succeed at Rocket City.
26
52
507
RHP Michael Lorenzen not only wants a shot at being a starting pitcher in 2022, but also wants the opportunity to get regular at-bats as an outfielder. Wants to get on the Ohtani routine. The Rangers, Pirates, Cubs and Giants are all believed to have inquired.
20
58
487
1 Julio Rodriguez
2 Bobby Witt
3 Adley Rutschman
4 Grayson Rodriguez
5 Gabriel Moreno
6 Riley Greene
7 Anthony Volpe
8 Spencer Torkelson
9 Corbin Carroll
10 Shane Baz
11 Marco Luciano
12 CJ Abrams
13 George Kirby
14 Marcelo Mayer
15 Jordan Walker
31
31
488
The
#Mariners
are 7-9 since the All-Star break, including 10 games against the Astros and the Yankees... Two of the Top 3 teams in baseball.
You don't win 14 in a row every month. Relax. Enjoy the ride.
22
36
489
Chase Burns got bored throwing 99-101 with a 92 mph slider against the first 5 batters he saw. So he decided to whip out a mid-80s hammer to end the 6th AB. 5 Ks already.
Good god.
4
26
495
SOURCES: While nothing is set in stone, Major League Baseball is expected to announce the inaugural MLB Draft lottery will take place on December 6th during the Winter Meetings in San Diego, California.
10
84
485
The
#Mariners
might have a good one in C Harry Ford. He's been really good at Modesto. Slashing .262/.410/.408, but more importantly running an elite 14% chase rate, best in the organization. It's supreme discipline. Throwing out more than 25% of base-stealers. Good player.
14
25
476
As
@jakemailhot
notes: Only 24% of the Mariners remaining schedule is against teams over .500.
Buyers.
11
20
467
LuJames "Gino" Groover III is probably the best player in the country that nobody is talking about. Dude is coming off a .364/.440/.568 campaign. Then he hit like .600 this fall. Reportedly looked pretty darn good at 3B too. Not a lot of holes in his game/approach/bat speed.
15
43
466
One of the reasons Arkansas RHP Peyton Pallette gets the acclaim he does is the curveball. Pallette averaged north of 3000 RPM in 2021, *elite* spin rates. He also throws his CB close to 80 mph, another top-of-the-scale figure suggesting future success.
4
50
457
The Mariners have an agreement with Harry Ford. The deal will be exactly slot.
10
41
446
Sources: the Texas Rangers are promoting OF Wyatt Langford to Double-A.
He’ll report to Frisco in the next couple days.
4
39
452
Tennessee OF Dylan Dreiling. 115(!!) off the bat. Didn’t hit a ball harder than 108 in 2023. High contact, low chase HITTER.
I think I’m the most bullish of anyone in the industry on him currently. My no. 42-ranked prospect in the 2024 class. A little Seth Smith in the profile.
5
41
456
After what the Blue Jays have done with Ricky Tiedemann, fans should feel awfully excited about Brandon Barriera. Up to 99;sinking, flashing a plus slider and feel for a changeup. Better pure athlete than Tiedemann too. Could be scary.
5
66
456
The Kansas City Royals got an absolute DOG in Brian Bridges as their new scouting director. He’s credited with much of the foundation of the Braves present blueprint.
The guy also just gets it. One of the more respected guys in the industry.
18
44
453
The Mariners have officially announced the signing of SS Felnin Celesten.
4
26
449