Here's where you can get a copy of #Principles:

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I worry about the dangers of AI in cases where users accept—or, worse, act upon—the cause-effect relationships presumed in algorithms produced by machine learning without understanding them deeply.

and in all cases, it will allow you to compound your understanding to a degree that would otherwise be impossible. It will also take emotion out of the equation.

If you can do that, you will take the power of your decision making to a whole other level. In many cases, you will be able to test how that principle would have worked in the past or in various situations that will help you refine it ...

I have found triangulating with highly believable people who are willing to have thoughtful disagreements has never failed to enhance my learning and sharpen the quality of my decision making. https://t.co/4U93kwdiXv …

Using principles is a way of both simplifying and improving your decision making. https://t.co/PrfX4ZCNoI …

Get rid of irrelevant details so that the essential things and the relationships between them stand out.

Anything is possible. It’s the probabilities that matter. Everything must be weighed in terms of its likelihood and prioritized.

I often hear people say, “Wouldn’t it be good to do this or that?” It’s likely they are being distracted from far more important things that need to be done well.

Separate your “must-dos” from your “like-to-dos” and don’t mistakenly slip any “like-to-dos” onto the first list.

Prioritize by weighing the value of additional information against the cost of not deciding. Some decisions are best made after acquiring more information; some are best made immediately.

Watch out for people who argue against something whenever they can find something—anything— wrong with it, without properly weighing all the pluses and minuses. Such people tend to be poor decision makers.

You can significantly improve your track record if you only make the bets that you are most confident will pay off.

I often observe people making decisions if their odds of being right are greater than 50 percent. What they fail to see is how much better off they’d be if they raised their chances even more (you can almost always improve your odds of being right by obtaining more information).

Normally a winning decision is one with a positive expected value, meaning that the reward times its probability of occurring is greater than the penalty times its probability of occurring, with the best decision having the highest expected value. https://t.co/7Prbdn0eqO

Unfortunately, many tests by psychologists show that the majority of people mostly follow the lower-level path, leading to inferior decisions w/out them realizing. As Carl Jung put it, “Until you make the unconscious conscious, it will direct your life and you will call it fate.”

For instance, if you want to have a healthy life, you shouldn’t have twelve sausage links and a beer every day for breakfast. In other words, you need to constantly connect and reconcile the data you’re gathering at different levels in order to draw a complete picture.

An above-the-line conversation addresses the main points and a below-the-line conversation focuses on the sub-points.

Reality exists at different levels and each of them gives you different but valuable perspectives. It’s important to keep all of them in mind as you synthesize and make decisions, and to know how to navigate between them. https://t.co/5RRaqgpDFz

Perfectionists spend too much time on little differences at the margins at the expense of the important things.