Brian Whitmore
@PowerVertical
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A blog about Russian politics by Atlantic Council Senior Fellow and UTA Adjunct Prof. Brian Whitmore. I block trolls & anybody else I find remotely annoying.
Washington, DC
Joined April 2009
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![[Tr4sh_Kun]](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1178724231183396864/UNS64Vu1.jpg)
Pinned Tweet
The newly launched
@PowerVertical
franchise is not only back, it now has a brand new website!
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We all owe a great debt to the Ukrainians. They are reminding us why democracy matters. They are reminding us that it is worth fighting for. And they are reminding us that in this era of fake news and alternative facts, the truth still matters.
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Compared to Volodymyr Zelensky, Western leaders - even the ones I like, support, and respect - suddenly seem small.
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A Ukrainian victory against Russia will be a paradigm-shifting event for European security - similar to what occurred in 1989. In fact, it could be something of a 1989 redux. 1/6
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The Kremlin's narrative on the Dugina assassination is, of course, patently absurd. A Ukrainian woman, with a child, managed to pull of an assassination in Moscow's elite Rublyovka neighborhood -- and escape to Estonia in a Mini Cooper?!? 1/2
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I increasingly believe that we are witnessing one of two things: either it is the end of an independent Ukraine or it is the end of Vladimir Putin. Both will not survive this war intact. And at the moment, I think the smart money is on the end of Putin.
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You really can't make this stuff up. "Russia Says It’s Losing Because Ukraine Has Experimental Mutant Troops Created in Secret Biolabs"
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The Russian Justice Ministry has banned this photo as "extremist." So whatever you do, don't share it!
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I really wish anchors on cable news would stop referring to the Donbas as "disputed." It is not disputed. It is Ukrainian territory, part of which is illegally occupied by Russia. Words and language matter - especially now.
@msnbc
@AliVelshi
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Ukrainians are fighting not just for their own sovereignty and independence, but also for the second liberation of Eastern Europe, finishing the process that began in 1989. 5/6
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So let me get this straight. At a time when even commentators on Russian state television understand they are losing their war against Ukraine, we are supposed to...negotiate?
Meanwhile in Russia: TV hosts clearly regretted the moment they asked an expert for his opinion regarding the Kremlin's allegations of a so-called "dirty bomb" Ukraine is supposedly planning to detonate.
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And finally, the West needs to prepare itself to manage this potential contingency. We still need to get there and this is, of course, by no means guaranteed. But we should not succumb to a failure of imagination on this. 6/6
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But imagine for a moment that it is true. This means: 1) The SBU has sufficient assets to strike in one of Moscow's most secure & elite neighborhoods; and 2) The Russian security services are beyond incompetent; and 3) the Russian elite should be afraid -- very afraid
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The fallout would be felt in Russian clients like Belarus, where Alyaksasndr Lukashenka's grip on power may not survive the defeat of his patron in Moscow. A Ukrainian victory could very well lead to a free Belarus. 3/6
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I also find it amusing how they always find a need to bring the Estonians into it. Who can forget the infamous белые колготки, the fictitious female Estonian snipers in Chechnya (or am I just showing my age?)
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UKRAINIAN WARTIME HUMOR
Question: why are all the Russian vehicles we capture in Ukraine marked with a “Z”?
Answer: the other half of the swastika was stolen by corrupt Russian contractors
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The fallout will also be felt in countries struggling to free themselves from Moscow's influence like Georgia and Moldova, weakening the influence Moscow is able to wield through oligarchic structures. 4/6
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YouTube said it would globally block all channels associated with Russian state-funded media, including RT and Sputnik. About time.
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Smart piece from
@MaxBoot
"President Biden is right not to send U.S. forces into direct combat with the Russians, but everything else should be fair game, from ATACMS to F-16s to Abrams tanks."
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Just as a weakening of Soviet power in the late 1980s led to the fall of pro-Soviet regimes across the former Warsaw Pact, today, the weakening of Russian power will likely have repercussions across the former Soviet space. 2/6
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As a friend of mine recently put it: "We elect politicians and would be leaders who prove to be comedians and Ukraine elects a comedian who proves to be a resolute leader of strength, character and integrity."
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If you think sanctions are not working, you need to read this excellent piece by
@owenmatth
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I must say that
@MSNBC
is doing a fantastic job on the Ukraine story. Thorough, smart, and empathetic reporting. Thanks and well done
@SRuhle
@AliVelshi
@maddow
@chrislhayes
@Lawrence
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Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was assassinated in Moscow seven years ago today. It is worth noting that Nemtsov was a strong supporter of Ukraine who spoke out forcefully against Putin's aggression there. R.I.P Boris Yefimovich. You are sorely missed.
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Happy Independence Day, Estonia! You look fabulous at 103!
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Anybody who is surprised by the brutality of Putin's war on Ukraine should recall that he came to power due to a false flag operation that bombed Russian apartment blocks in Buynaksk, Moscow and Volgodonsk in September 1999. What's past is prologue...
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Mykola Bieliekskov at
#KyivSecurityForum
The West ‘needs to decide whether we are fighting a war or engaging in escalation management.’
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I must say that I am VERY disappointed with these 30 members of my party. What on earth are they thinking with so much at stake in Ukraine?!? As a matter of policy and politics, President Biden would be wise to reject this appeal out of hand.
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Putin appears to be repeating a tactic Stalin used in the 1940s, deporting locals from an occupied area and importing Russians. Today this would be called ethnic cleansing.
Amid Ukrainian claims of forced deportations of Mariupol residents to Russia, including distant cities—“Russian news agencies have reported that hundreds of people whom Moscow are calling refugees have been taken by bus from Mariupol to Russia”
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@ulrichspeck
What kind of compromise can be reached? Ukraine will either be a sovereign state or it will not be. If Russia stops fighting there will be no more war in Ukraine. If Ukraine stops fighting there will be no more Ukraine. The only reason there is a war is because Russia wants one.
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It's on Russian state TV now, which means it is "real"
Russian state tv mentions Prigozhin’s rebellion and cites the defence ministry
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“If Russia loses it will want revenge; if it wins it will want more. Either way we will be dealing with a revanchist Russia.”
@akuchenbecker29
speaking at
#TbilisiConf
-2023
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I wish guests on
@maddow
would stop saying "The Ukraine." The name of the country is Ukraine.
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Did Russia just threaten to invade Georgia again?
Protests against “foreign agents" bill, erupted in
#Tbilisi
🇬🇪, result in demands for the resignation of the government. We recommend to the georgian people to recall a similar situation in Ukraine🇺🇦 in 2014 and what it finally led to!
#ThinkTwice
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"The change in Belarus’s geopolitical status over the past 18 months represents one of the most dramatic shifts in the security calculus in Eastern Europe since Russia’s illegal 2014 annexation of Crimea." My new column for
@ACEurasia
#BelarusAlert
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Correct me if I am wrong, but it appears that Russia has yet to take a single major Ukrainian city.
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The voices of thoughtful Russians who are sincerely appalled by Vladimir Putin's criminal war against Ukraine are very important to hear right now. This heartfelt piece by
@russiafiles
is a case in point.
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"What the Ukrainians have done — transforming their military to incorporate vast quantities of unfamiliar foreign weapons while engaged in heavy combat operations — is akin to rebuilding an airplane while in flight."
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A big shout out to
@AliVelshi
for his brilliant coverage of Russia's war against Ukraine for
@MSNBC
these past several weeks. As someone who follows this part of the world for a living, thank you for accurately bringing its complexity and nuance to American audiences.
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I think Ronald Reagan must be turning over in his grave...
The Russians Think the GOP Just Won Them the War in Ukraine
‘WELL DONE, REPUBLICANS!’
Russian state TV celebrates the GOP move to block funding and predicts that Trump will do even better and cut off both Ukraine & Israel.
My latest for
@thedailybeast
:
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It never ceases to amaze me how generous some leaders are with Ukraine's territory. What part of Brazil would President Lula like to give to Russia for the sake of peace?
The world needs more than ’tranquility’, President Lula… it needs rules, sovereignty, peace.
Would you offer a Crimea-sized part of Brazil… just for tranquility’s sake ? Then we’ll talk !
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Belarusian expats in Ukraine have formed military unit to join defense against Russian invasion
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The pressure on Belarus to send troops to Ukraine is building again. But as I have been writing for
@ACEurasia
#BelarusAlert
- so is the resistance in Belarusian society and the armed forces
New: The US and NATO believe that Belarus could “soon” join Russia in its war against Ukraine, US and NATO officials tell CNN, and that the country is already taking steps to do so, officials tell me,
@VascoCNN
@jimsciutto
@jmhansler
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The West's sanctions against Russian officials have targeted rule and law breakers. Moscow's sanctions against the West have targeted rule and law enforcers. This is the Kremlin's idea of reciprocity -- and it speaks volumes.
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George Orwell called. He wants his plot back...
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"Russia is losing in Ukraine but winning in Georgia...Failing to address Georgia’s slide into Russia’s geopolitical orbit would be a costly mistake." A must-read piece by my good friend
@kandelakigiorgi
on the stakes in Georgia.
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Interesting that Russian state TV isn't showing a lot of battlefield footage.
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Some of us have been shouting about this from the rooftops since at least 2014...
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Putin's speech today was designed specifically to feed the myth. The West should not fall for this & should continue to provide Ukraine with robust support. Putin's speech, his partial mobilization, & his threats of escalation were signs that Russia is losing this war. 4/4
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Listen to
@terrelljstarr
speak with Oleg Volsky, the 27-year-old mayor of Zhovkva, Ukraine on his excellent Black Diplomats podcast
NEW on Black Diplomats podcast: I spoke with Oleg Volsky, the 27-year-old mayor of Zhovkva, about being a wartime mayor, supporting internally displaced people and how he’s preparing in case the Russians make it to his western Ukrainian town. Link:
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Russophobia is everywhere according to Moscow. But where did this word come from? The answer is revealing. Read my latest op-ed:
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"The Russian takeover of Belarus won't be a spectacular event like the annexation of Crimea. Instead, it will be a slow, stealthy, and methodical operation that will be over before most know it is happening." My column for
@ACEurasia
#BelarusAlert
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George Orwell called. He wants his plot back (Part 2):
FM
#Lavrov
: The goal of Russia’s special military operation is to stop any war that could take place on Ukrainian territory or that could start from there.
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Adding to
@apmassaro3
list: The Germans have seized a yacht. The French have seized a yacht. And now, the Italians have seized a yacht!
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"The participation of Belarusian volunteers fighting against the Russian invasion of Ukraine illustrates that the stakes of Vladimir Putin’s war extend far beyond the current battlefield." My latest column for
@ACEurasia
#BelarusAlert
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The problem with claims that 'a cornered Putin is a dangerous Putin' is that they rarely show any evidence to support this claim. For example, in today's
@nytimes
@NYTimesCohen
writes "Mr. Putin cornered is Mr. Putin at his most dangerous." 1/4
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A Map of all the countries that think Brexit is a good idea:
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Business opens in just over an hour in Moscow. Should be an interesting day…
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On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I discuss Ukraine on the eve of its long-awaited spring offensive with
@sherr_james
&
@apmassaro3
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With a series of strikes deep inside Russian-occupied Crimea, Ukraine's guns of August have changed the war's narrative. What accounts for Kyiv's enhanced capabilities? On the new
@PowerVertical
Podcast, I speak with the always insightful
@michaeldweiss
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Germany's Foreign Minister says both Russia and Ukraine need to deescalate. On the new Vertical Video I ask: So what exactly is Ukraine supposed to do to deescalate? Give up its territory? It's maritime rights? It's sovereignty?
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Something tells me this wasn't a very friendly meeting:
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In contrast, in a recent piece I co-authored with
@MSnegovaya
in
@ForeignPolicy
, we expose the myth that Putin never backs down with numerous examples of him doing just that. 3/4
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NY Times reporting that "The United States is planning to sanction President Vladimir Putin as soon as Friday, a U.S. official confirms."
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My latest column for
@ACEurasia
#BelarusAlert
looks at how the fierce Ukrainian resistance to Russia’s invasion is getting inside the heads of Belarusian soldiers, officers, and officials - and forcing them to rethink their participation in the war.
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Some initial thoughts on today's excitement in Russia (subject to revision):
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In which
@MSnegovaya
&
@PowerVertical
bust the myth that Putin never backs down. Out new piece in Foreign Policy.
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According to a leak from Ukrainian Military Intelligence, Russia planned a full-scale invasion of Belarus in August 2020. My latest column for
@ACEurasia
#BelarusAlert
.
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"Ukrainians are fighting not just for their own sovereignty and independence but also for the second liberation of Eastern Europe." My latest piece in
@ForeignPolicy
argues that the West needs to prepare itself to manage this contingency.
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My latest column for
@ACEurasia
#BelarusAlert
looks at the "railway rebellion" in Belarus, how it is disrupting Russia's war against Ukraine, and how it is part of the broader unexpected knock-on effects of Putin's brutal aggression.
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My colleague
@edwardlucas
nails it here. A simple point that -- sadly -- needs to be endlessly repeated. Ukraine and Georgia are fully sovereign states and their sovereignty is not ours to bargain away. Period.
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Sergei Lavrov denies that Russia attacked Ukraine. Really! Listen for yourself. I used to say that Lavrov was like the mafia lawyer for Putin's criminal regime. But now I think that this is unfair to mafia lawyers. He's just a vile disgusting person.
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In my new column for
@ACEurasia
#BelarusAlert
I look at the geopolitical extortion and gangster tactics at play in the manufactured migrant crisis on Europe's eastern frontier
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Gotta love the Czechs...
Brilliant! Somebody has put up an unofficial street sign reading “Alexei Navalny Lookout” by Prague’s Stromovka Park. The sign is very near the city’s Russian Embassy and between the (actually existing) Boris Nemtsov Square and Anna Politkovskaya Promenade.
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ICYMI, this week on The
@PowerVertical
Podcast, I spoke to the always insightful
@AVindman
Ukraine's looming spring offensive and what the West needs to do to help Ukraine win.
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On the
@PowerVertical
Podcast this week, I speak to
@vkaramurza
about the two Kremlin-backed attempts on his life, the memory & legacy of Boris Nemtsov, and Putin's Death Squads.
@McDowellCenter
@ACEurasia
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Putin dreamed of tanks on the Khreshchatyk. He got his wish, sort of. Captured Russian tanks displayed in downtown Kyiv (h/t: Peter Dickinson; Photo: Oleksandr Zinchenko)
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It's hard to believe we've been living in a world without Boris Nemtsov for four years already. Russia lost a good man on February 27, 2015. Rest in Peace Boris Yefimovich. We miss your wit, your humor, your fighting spirit, and your moral clarity. But most of all, we miss you.
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This year marks the centenary of the founding of the USSR & now Putin is trying t reassemble it. He took Belarus without firing a shot. And now he is trying to take Ukraine by force.
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From military deployments to cyber attacks, Belarus is now clearly a full participant in Russia’s escalating campaign against Ukraine. My new column for
@ACEurasia
#BelarusAlert
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Today marks the 80th anniversary of the Welles Declaration, in which the United States refused to recognize the USSR's illegal invasion and annexation of the Baltic states. This bold statement of values, principle, and policy is as relevant today as ever.
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