Good value for money!

Twelve months ago, I re-launched my newsletter as a subscription service to provide high-quality, affordable and objective research focused on energy issues. I have always been convinced high-quality research and analysis are essential for effective decision-making. The past

U.S./Iran: Oil Prices and the War Risk Premium Oil traders currently assign a low probability to a war between the United States and Iran that results in significant and sustained disruption to exports from Iran and other countries in the Persian Gulf. Front-month Brent

. @SecretaryWright reminding us that peat fueled the Dutch Golden Age in the in the 16th century. My grand parents generation kept warm with peat in the Yorkshire Dales. https://t.co/5SqbZIkVdh

Europeans can build cool stuff when they're not being stifled by excessive regulation.

The two Superpower Energy Systems On the left is the US energy system and on the right is the Chinese energy system. What is immediately obvious is how very different they are. US is dominated by nat gas and primary crude, China is dominated by coal. There are some more subtle

Geothermal well drilling rates of penetration (ROP) approaching a respectable 100ft/hr.

Do you like charts? Yes you do. I've just published 200 slides' worth. Here's a sample. Link in reply.

15/15 A longer energy transition leads to higher cumulative CO2 emissions and consequently temperature increases by ~2.5C by 2100 vs pre-1900 levels. Our other scenarios look at short transitions with lower temperatures so we can understand a range of outcomes. If you got this

14/15 CO2 emissions are in decline by the early 2030's in Archipelagos but it takes a century to reach net zero. It takes four decades to halve emissions from today in Archipelagos, vs just over two decades in Surge vs a bit over a decade in the normative Horizon scenario.

13/15 While there is initially only modest attention to carbon management in Archipelagos by the end of this century the scenario envisages CCS ~2.5 GTCO2/y, land use change >3 GTCO2/yr and carbon captured into materials ~1.5GTCO2/y.

12/15 Renewable power is important in all our scenarios so we have spent more time exploring how the electricity grid could balance with high penetrations of renewables. (For reference Tokyo is ~35°N, New York ~40°N and many major European cities are ~50°N)

11/15 Biofuel demand more than triples over the 35yrs seek in Archipelagos as customers seek affordable ways to reduce emissions through lower carbon fuels, some of which can be blended into conventional fuel supply chains.

10/15 Coal has proved hard to dislodge in the global energy system, but peak coal use before 2030 is common across our scenarios. Historically coal has played an important role in the rise of major economies, thus future demand will be driven by places like India and Africa.

9/15 LNG helps address energy security issues in different ways in Archipelagos: the EU continues to import LNG from the USA to offset the loss of Russian gas, whereas China relies on gas imports from Central Asia and domestic production to moderate its LNG demand.

8/15 Natural gas demand in Archipelagos grows into the early 2040s as regions with plentiful domestic gas seek to maximise production. But gas-poor regions favour domestic resources such as coal and biomass, unless there are spot procurement opportunities in the LNG market...

7/15 Oil demand in Archipelagos has a bit more growth but a more shallow decline than our other scenarios as customers take longer to move to alternative technologies, particularly in marine, aviation and petrochemicals.

6/15 Aside: China leads the world in aggregate electrification, as it has a dominant industrial sector with relatively high electrification as it has been built recently, adopting new processes and practices. Transport electrification ahead thanks to EV and trains.

5/15 Electrification of the energy system continues on trend for another decade before accelerating in Archipelagos. In other words electric cars, heat pumps etc are coming, but not quite as quickly as in our other scenarios.

4/15 Many new technologies are now being deployed into the energy system, but it takes decades for them to become widespread and decarbonisation solutions for some sectors are still at the research stage.