@PauloMacro Fiscal stimulus shd be dead for now, may ease some inflationary pressure (on the margin und just in my view).

@Teldra2 There is still a tremendous amount of past stimmie working its way through the system in 2023.

@PauloMacro How about coerce Biden to respond responsibly to improve O&G production? If oil roofs with R's in Congress he may be highly compelled.

@PauloMacro Im not sure it's priced in. I think we have a lot of election distrust priced in. Most won't believe it until they see it.

@PauloMacro Bruh they gonna have DJT lobbing tweets telling them to take care of the people. There is no austerity coming. How can you possibly believe that?

@PauloMacro Had exactly the same thought. Would also give lame duck Admin an excuse to go scorched earth and blame everything on deadlock.

@PauloMacro It's the deregulation, plus market knows 2024 is just around corner.

@PauloMacro exactly right. but this goes beyond choking fiscal, numerous debt ceiling crises, forcing energy expansion, and defunding progressive govt programs. look out for full proctoscopic hearings on covid protocols, vaccines, inflation causes, Hunter. Dems soon to scapegoat Powell. 🤔

@PauloMacro Exactly

@PauloMacro A Democratic sweep isn’t priced in either. What if Ds hold the House and expand Senate majority?

@PauloMacro Lot of unknowns, which the market hates. We'll how it goes for these next 2 months. A mania to get stuff passed?, most likely unsucessfully. But does that increase the polarization and potential violence. I truly hope not.

@PauloMacro I am hoping that more Republicans in Congress means more pipeline approvals and more oil and natural gas drilling permits

@PauloMacro New Congress is certainly going to tighten the screws on spending into Presidential election…

@PauloMacro Watch what happens. It won’t be what you expect.

@PauloMacro Sweep implies supermajority in the Senate. That isn’t consensus or priced in. Regardless, gridlock ahead.

@PauloMacro You say that like it is bad

@PauloMacro I think Dems still think Sen is a toss up. Does margin matter (if it went R+4 Sen and +20 H)? Sweep means blocking spending/stimulus, which should be disinflationary. "Toxic" risk to me is debt ceiling obstruction and default risk - would that push yields up if it got that far?

@PauloMacro And undoing/fighting policies that gave the market temporary bumps….GND, Loan Forgiveness, etc

@PauloMacro What about breaking up of big tech? Censorship can have huge repercussions. They made enemies.