Paul Daily - ratings2win.com.au
@PaulD01
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Premier horse racing analytics software & DB for Australia/Hong Kong. The pro's choice for verified data, form analysis, and unrivalled performance ratings.
Joined June 2011
Grateful to have been chosen to talk with Simon. He has some excellent guests in the #BettingPeople stable.
I really enjoyed talking to @PaulD01 Paul Daily for this week's @StarSports_Bet #BettingPeople He talks about his slow-burn route to professional punting and the angles he looks for to beat the bookmakers. In three parts.
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Please join me in welcoming Joshua Reed @Reedy9_ to the R2W Team as Administrative Assistant. We are excited to have him on the team. We are confident that Josh will deliver and make an important contribution to the team overall. Welcome Josh, well done. π.
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Proud parent moment. Bachelor of Law (First class honours) and Bachelor of Business (International business with distinction). π©βπππͺ
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Proud Dad moment as eldest daughter officially receives letter confirming that she has been appointed Judges Associate and Deputy Sheriff by the Supreme Court of Queensland for 2023.
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Not something I would normally do but an insight into my trade based on all tweets published yesterday. What was shaping up for an ordinary day (-14.11 units maximum drawdown) ended up a good winning day. Discipline in staking and staying the course is vital for any punter.
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@racing_nsw @aus_turf_club @rosehillgardens This is insane. A 33% increase on a race that isn't/shouldn't be worth anywhere near the purse on offer. It's below GP1 standard by a margin. The gesture of $1M to charity is funded by punters, make no mistake. This blatant disregard for your only customers (punters) is sickening.
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IMO and I have raised it before, prizemoney levels overall are too high. For e.g. a Sydney Saturday Welter (typical race) in 1991 was worth $40k now $160k. Coming into 2023 and adjusting for inflation that race would be ~$86k. Add to that the ridiculous level of prizemoney.
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Outside of Winx, Pierata returned the next best rating ~0.5L better than The Autumn Sun and Avilius who both posted new personal bests.
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Forming an understanding on the way a track is likely to play and how its influenced by climatic conditions and rail placement is necessary and advantageous before you consider betting. Rosehill today a perfect case in point. Those that whinge about it after the fact astounds me.
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Never sweated so much at a Coffs Harbour Cup meeting.
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~ $28.5 million AUD turnover per race average. Little wonder why @HKJC_Racing leads the world. They understand the punter is #1.
More attendance yesterday at Sha Tin #HKracing ππ».With strict social distancing measures in the racecourse
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"So iv'e got my database". "It's right in front of me". "It's the ratings2win database", "big powerful one". Will have to put him on the payroll. π@winbetdan.
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Racing Administrators should be ashamed at what they have created.
Very quiet in the ring 13 minutes before the 4th at Canterbury yesterday. Thank goodness for punting die-hard βParaβ!
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My Cup bets so far in order of collect:. 1. Without A Fight.2. Ashrun.3. Future History.4. Interpretation (each way).5. More Felons. 6. Military Mission. 7. Soulcombe. Still to come:.Gold Trip, Absurde and small bet Serpentine. Don't want to be with Vauban. Good luck to all.
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After 9 races at Scone today and based on the assumption that the official times are correct (which they are not) the 1000 and 1100 chute races came out an average of a Good 3.6 and the other races a Dead 4.3. If anyone honestly believes that it was heavy they are delusional.
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All credit to Mazu and Sam Clipperton however Tommy Berry went way too slow on In The Congo. Average of last four starts went +1.65L fast to the 800m. Today -5L slow to the 600m.
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@Racing @winbetdan @cotchinsoda @terrythesaint These segments are a terrific initiative of @Racing Valuable, easy to understand content aimed at punters and the wider audience. As an industry attempting to grow market share, we simply need more of this. Well done to all. @winbetdan @cotchinsoda @terrythesaint.
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No actual on pace bias at Caulfield despite four leader/winners (all pace related). Eight of the top 10 outperformers at the meeting were a median of 3.7L from leader at the 800m. You need to weigh all the evidence. Definite rails in run/straight advantage though.
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Excited to be partnering up with @BrisRacingClub delivering initiatives for the benefit of punters. @xlb_nathan.
NEW!!! Verified Speed and Sectional ratings for Eagle Farm and Doomben. BRC has teamed with @PaulD01 to provide time ratings for all races at our two venues. Doomben from February 5 and 12 are now live at this link:
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Grateful for the opportunity to again speak with Jake. Listen to my latest developments. @SportLawyerAus @BettingPod.
Episode 136 - Paul Daily (@PaulD01). - Betting in 2020.- Setting up a Betting Fund.- Technology and wagering developments. Soundcloud -
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I rarely comment publicly on politics but am compelled in light of a proposed Bill that will in no way advantage citizens of our great country. Please read and consider the effects on you and others should such a Bill receive Assent.
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Top 10 rated performances* from Sha Tin last Sunday. (Depending on demand I am considering posting these for the 2021/2022 season). *Includes my jockey rating and important in run adjustments. πNervous Witness - interesting to watch his progress.
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If you don't have the time and resources to do the form yourself then you would be hard pressed to find someone who works harder and is more dedicated to finding winners than Brad. Get behind him punters and give him a go.
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Great to see some focus on important issues facing punters and the broader industry. The rounding down of dividends needs to be addressed and IMO the endless tit for tat prize-money war between RNSW and RVL does more harm than good. Time to focus on the #1 participants #punters.
The racing industry is on a massive high, but who's paying the price?
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FWIW the practical effect of the POC tax became evident when Bluebet on Saturday was offering Classique Legend at $2.00 and Cosmic Force at $4.00 (online) when at the same time their on track prices were $2.15 and $4.60. @RantRacing @riracing.
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If it wasn't for the fact that Kandinsky Abstract hadn't cost $3million, then in his two runs this preparation he would have been significantly longer in the market. At Rosehill 26/8 I had him 40/1 v 5/1 and yesterday at Flemington I had him 125/1 v 14/1 (both normalised).
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If part of your job includes reporting track conditions accurately and you fail to do that are you bringing the industry into disrepute? @RantRacing.
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Had another approach from a corporate bookmaker today wanting to purchase multiple Axis database licences. Answer was "NO" #cantbebought.
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17mm irrigation this week, why? Last two meetings Randwick played a Good 3, closer to a Firm 2 - 4/8/18) Leading into that meeting they applied 2mm within a 7 day period topping up the 1.8mm of rain. #putonforthemare
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@J_Walter23 Fine, arrest and charge them. Their self isolation can be within a cell for the 14 days. This type of reckless disregard for the broader community is intolerable.
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Received this testimonial from a satisfied client. Thank you for your kind words and taking the time to send. @PeterLawrence18 #R2WAxisisthesolution
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Top 10 rated performances* from Sha Tin last Sunday. (Depending on demand I am considering posting these for the 2021/2022 season). *Includes my jockey rating and important in run adjustments.
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It's unfathomable how Olmedo gets a run and Icebath doesn't. What is perplexing is how Icebath OHR drops 2 points for running 4th on Saturday especially also as it ran against the bias. Olmedo OHR shows a total of 1 point of relief despite finishing 2nd/5, 8th/10, 6th/16, 16th/16
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A fair bit of banter on Twitter re actual track conditions over the 4 days of the @FlemingtonVRC carnival. FACT: R2W Track Speed rates ALL of the 4 meetings as a Good 3. Importantly opinion does not contribute to the assessments. Congratulations to @MikeGoodie1 and his team.
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You won't hear of this officially but Zaaki beats Real Love track record for Doomben 2000m. Official time for Zaaki 0.18s slower than our verified time. On our verified times Zaaki ran 0.28s faster than Real Love did in 2016.
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My thoughts on Incentivise heading towards the Caulfield Cup.
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The 7.4mm of rain that fell in the last 24 hours at Rosehill must have hit lanes 1-4 only given that it had no irrigation.
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Back on track this Friday and Saturday after my annual Xmas/New Year holiday hiatus. Looking forward to catching up with the boys from @RantRacing and resuming my chair for Saturday's Top Up show. #readytofire.
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Special thanks to all 21 players including yours truly that have committed to our first trade fund/syndicate aptly named Huòshèng. Total committed last 7 days has been $837,000 AUD with likely more to come from anyone that wants to top up. #makeitamillion
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No better apprentice riding at present than @WILLPRICE50 π₯βοΈ Credit must also be given to his jockey manager Simon McCartin.
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Top 8 rated performances from Rosehill Saturday. Anders new best. Holyfield may be perhaps a little underestimated next time. Big slow down 800-400 gave chasers their chance. Some others not on list. Tenley has come back well. Girl Tuesday. Destination did a good job.
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Plenty of discussion around the Rosehill meeting last Saturday. 2m rail played fairly typically from our data. Median lane of the top 10 overachievers was 2.5 @ (400) 4.5 @ (200). Lead up ratings for 3YO winners of The Everest : Giga Kick 100.1 and Yes Yes Yes 102.9. The YYY.
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Prices secured on track yesterday for some of my bets. Where's Pippa $18,$17,$16 place (TF$12) Nat King Cu $12 (TF$10) Marsupial $6.50 (TF$5.50) Girl Sunday $17 (TF$14) Perizada $8 (TF$7) Selita $17 (TF$14) Just missed Royal Tudor $20 (TF$14) #bringbackthetrack.
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We all know punting is a volatile pursuit. I was reminded of that again today. Last 6 resulted bets this week I have beaten the SP by an average of 20.8% per bet but alas no winners for an 11.6% bank draw-down.
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Top 10 rated performances* from Happy Valley last Wednesday. (Depending on demand I am considering posting these for the 2021/2022 season). *Includes my jockey rating and important in run adjustments.
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This is an article written by my eldest daughter Sofia. She has been diagnosed with and suffers from endometriosis, chronic pelvic pain, chronic fatigue syndrome and fibromyalgia. She is wanting to spread the word particularly on endometriosis.
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If Rothfire runs up to his form of September 2020 he wins the Victory Stakes. Personally I'm risking him and backing Baller and Count De Rupee for a fair result.
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Small but interesting stat. @ANeashamRacing has only had 29 runners resuming. @TommyBerry21 has ridden 13 of them for 4 of her 7 first up winners. Mounga is her 7th stakes winner from 46 starters.
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Lot of diverse material available on @BettingPod to assist all levels of punters and those interested in wagering across racing and sport. Episode 6 where I talk about my story with @SportLawyerAus
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Top 10 rated performances* from Randwick Saturday. *Includes my jockey rating and important in run adjustments.
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What an amazing life.
Wonderful article about Bill Waterhouse written by @RobWaterhouse in todayβs paper! Extraordinary man in so many ways! . @tomwaterhouse @KateWaterhouse7 .@GaiWaterhouse1 @dailytelegraph
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I have read thousands of books but I must say the latest, "The Happiest Man On Earth" by Eddie Jaku is by far the most important. One of his quotes is "Education is a lifesaver" so do yourself perhaps the biggest favor and read it.
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Well done to @justideal from @RantRacing proudly powered by on his comfortable win and yet another stellar performance in the @Betfair_Aus Pro Lays competition.
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Worthy addition, well done Brad.
π’πBeyond excited to announce that Iβll be joining the Sky Racing 1 team on Saturdays from this weekend (Iβm also on Sky 1 Wednesdays).Iβve looked up to Gator and Marto for a long time and itβs an honour to be joining 2 of the very best on The Big Stage.Thanks for your supportπ
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Four races down at Kensington and times suggest track is FAST 1.6 to 1.8. Well done to the track manager as punters want to bet more on GOOD and FAST tracks.
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My eldest daughter is studying 2nd year Law & Business. Her entrepreneurship group has made this video and requires as many views as possible as this is part of the determination of their grades. Please view this 30 sec video to help young entrepreneurs.
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Off for a short mid-year pacific break with the family to recharge. Today's Randwick Model Prices are available to all at no charge. Good luck.
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Top 10 rated performances from Randwick on Saturday. Subjective adjustments not included.
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Looking forward to a terrific couple of days this Wednesday (Calcutta) and Thursday for the Coffs Harbour Cup. Always a great day so if you are at the track come and say hello. @coffs_racing.
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Premium Brisbane Metropolitan Racing content commencing May 20 Punters Collective @tpcaus ratings2win @PaulD01 #getonboard
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Surprised Magic Consul ran $24.34 BSP winning on Saturday. On our WQR ratings he owned the best performance of any runner at his last two starts. In those he started $8 and $4.7 BSP and ran the 4th best 800-200 splits of the day coming from 8.5 and 5.2 lengths off them at the 800
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Trainer Benjamin Smith currently trains 32 horses. (Last 730 days) 160 runners 37 winners 23.1% SR 46.4% POT 46.9% bank growth. Outstanding trainer @RantRacing @BenSmithRacing1.
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It's emails from clients like this that make all the hard work and financial investment into what we produce in our Axis database worthwhile.
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R2W Track Speed Randwick R1: Heavy 8.7 (but below average tempo and 2YO). Expecting improvement in the track today with windy conditions helping.
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As a trainer with only a small team @R1CHARDFREEDMAN has performed very strongly. 65 runners (since training in his own right) 13 winners 20% SR 25.6% POT 10.6% bank growth #welldone @RantRacing.
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are pleased to be now delivering our Verified Speed and Sectional Race Ratings to Coffs Harbour Racing Club. Get access to this data for ALL meetings from the start of the current season here @coffs_racing @PaulD01.
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Leaders track and decent rails in run advantage (800-400) at Randwick Saturday. (Higher the number/darker the shade the more significant the advantage).
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Top 10 performances of the Flemington carnival. Subjective in run adjustments are not included.
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Top 10 rated performances* from Kembla Grange "Milesy Raceday" Saturday. *Includes my jockey rating and important in run adjustments. @RantRacing
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Track Dead at Wyong (4.8) in reality yet notified as a Heavy 10. @RNSWStewards surely this is not acceptable. Savvy punters know what it is but the cost to owners from having to scratch etc is unreasonable.
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Peter and Paul Snowden not travelling well. Last 90 days 220 runners 24 wins and -26.59% POT (-34.77% bank growth) @RantRacing.
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Good to see you back on Twitter Richard. Not surprisingly your article is based on concise reasoning and plain commonsense. Punters ensure you get around Richard's blog.
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Rarely wrap a corporate but win lose or draw a big shout out to @BlueBetAu for taking an $8,000 bet pre-post.
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Looking forward to catching up with friends in Coffs Harbour this week for a terrific Cup meeting on Thursday. Keep an eye out for my thoughts along with those from Marc and Gord from @RantRacing.
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Sunlight and Estijaab reach new provisional peaks of 102.9 and 102.2 respectively. Overall time rating of 112.2 exceeds PAR for open age GP2 horses by ~0.5L. For 2YO fillies to do this carrying 10.5kg over WFA suggests they both possess genuine GP1 talent. @RantRacing.
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When Alizee won the Queen Of The Turf on Saturday the wind was WNW 48 km/h with gusts up to 72 km/h yet in the following race Quilista was able to win the Sapphire Stakes leading all the way. Importantly wind dropped to WNW 28 km/h with 31 km/h gusts (lowest point of meeting).
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Ardent private handicappers if not already doing so, should heed these wise words and work towards the development and implementation of a process to take advantage of track bias when it presents.
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FWIW - My musings for the Cox Plate and briefly The Invitation and Bondi.
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Randwick R1 time more like a slow time than heavy from the chute but it will obviously deteriorate after first use.
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I don't think I have seen a more perplexing decision in terms of programming, as that made re Cellsabeel. Why would you pass up the chance to win a 2 million race where you have at least a 666% chance of winning, to go to the Silver Slipper worth I think 250k. Why not win both?.
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FWIW - My musings for the Everest and briefly the Caulfield Cup.
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For all those who continue to accept that the "official" form is correct. (Warwick Race 4 25/1/19) @RacingAust @racing_qld have finishing order 3,(5,1),2,4,6,7,8,9. Actual finishing order is 3,(5,1),2,6,7,4,9,8. After #2 they are ALL incorrect.
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Was a losing day Saturday but I have to commend Sandro D'Amore. Only required to bet to lose $1,500 (outer minimum) but was willing to lay me $5,000/$1,000 Ombudsman (TF on NOP was $5). This wasn't a one-off. It's bookmakers like him that help to keep the ring competitive.
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If you want better prices get to the track. Yesterday got I Am Excited $4.2, $3.8 & $3.7 (TF $3.6) . $41 Za Zi Ba (TF $31). The Pinnacle $11 (TF $9). Gailo Chop $2.15 (TF $2.05). Cliffs Edge $11 (TF $9). In Her Time $4.8 (TF $4.2). Quilista $5 (TF $4.2). Slow Burn $17 (TF $12).
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