An Outlier From The Regression
@OutlierBlackBox
Followers
718
Following
111K
Media
3K
Statuses
34K
Ex-interest rate/FX risk trader, Chrtrd Accountant, inv bank. Be fearful of tail-risk. Investor & discuss current affairs. Random interests.
Pale Blue Dot
Joined February 2021
US CPI and Core inflation undershoots again. If, like me, you knew the Fed was wrong all year and have been long equities, you did well. One thing is clear: being contrarian doesn't mean you are wrong. The madness of crowds is the default.
So why have none of the 'expert' economists apologised for being totally wrong on tariff inflation? 🤔 Why hasn't Jerome Powell apologised for being wrong again - just like "inflation is transitory"? They had no idea what they were doing. I made a lot taking the other side. 😁
0
0
0
"I will not use force against Greenland." - Trump, WEF 21st Jan 2026. Risk back on!
Every trader right now. Feet up lads. Risk-off.
0
0
0
TRUMP: "The United Kingdom produces just one third of the total energy from all sources than it did in 1999. They're sitting on top of the North Sea, one of the greatest reserves anywhere in the world. But they don't use it. And that's one reason why their energy has reached
243
1K
7K
Every trader right now. Feet up lads. Risk-off.
0
0
0
Yesterday it was the Japanese bond yields rising above 4% and tariffs on Europe. Today, inflation increases in Britain and China's investment crash raises credit risks . Fixed-asset investment in China, or FAI, declined 3.8% in 2025. https://t.co/wX7XH1inK6
cnbc.com
China’s sharp investment downturn is amplifying credit risks across the economy, weighing on the credit profiles of homebuilders, banks and local governments.
0
0
0
Are they comparing notes on who sucked off Xi the best? Starmer can't be far away. Surrender monkeys and cowards.
Good to see President @EmmanuelMacron in Davos today. Canada and France will always stand together for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and peace.
0
0
0
🚨 WOW. President Trump just called out Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer for being ALL TALK, no action! "They get rough when I'm not around. When I'm around? They treat me very nicely." 🔥😂 "They're both liberal and need to straighten out their countries!" FAKE tough guys!
632
6K
33K
How has he been in power so long??? The French must be asleep.
🚨 JUST IN: French President Emmanuel Macron begs for more Chinese investment in Europe "China is welcome. What we need is more Chinese direct investment in Europe!" STOP RELYING ON CHINA! This is why Europe is WEAK and Trump is strong. Pathetic.
0
0
0
UK stagflation as growth stalls, and inflation increases to 3.4% this morning. UK Labour's socialism has been a total and utter disaster. @resfoundation @TorstenBell @RachelReevesMP @darrenpjones @hmtreasury are incompetent with fairytale economics. https://t.co/Csj0LlrWE0
cnbc.com
The U.K. inflation rate rose to 3.4% in December, above forecasts of 3.3% from economists polled by Reuters.
0
0
0
WTAF
I am at a loss for words The UK’s National Health Service has been advising midwives that “marrying a relative can offer economic benefits as well as emotional and social connections” No. We should ban cousin marriage https://t.co/262QxDzebE
0
0
0
.@SecScottBessent: "@POTUS just believes that the U.S. needs Greenland because no-one will make a move on it then...we share a military facility on an island called Diego Garcia, and the U.K. is giving that island to Mauritius, and guess who is behind Mauritius? The Chinese!"
201
2K
9K
This is why the Conservatives are banished to the bin. Horrendous mix of misleading, lies and misunderstanding facts: he twists the truth around Mauritius seeking independence to have any bearing on the Chagos Islands who are 1600km away! (Distance between UK and Hungary!) 🤡
TRUMP's Chagos Distraction 👉He agreed the deal - going halves (UK pay the lease - US pay the base upkeep. ~£100m a yr each. 👉Int'l court decisions against UK were non-binding (so ignore them?) A binding decision would only follow. 👉 The history? We got the islands by
0
1
13
This is what happens when a leader says "we can just issue bonds to increase spending and cover debt." It's ironic that some MSM called Sanae Takaichi "far-right" (for saying illegal immigration needs to stop) when she is economically ultra Left-Wing. Japan bond yields ⬆️
⚠️Japanese government bonds are CRASHING: Japan's 30-year government bond yield spiked 30 basis points in one session, to 3.90%, the highest in HISTORY. 40-year yield surged 28 basis points, to 4.22%, the highest EVER. 40-year yields have soared ~80 basis points since the new
0
0
0
Digging into the planning decision by @SteveReedMP and this is 🤯 He argues that the cables don't present a risk if the Chinese behave lawfully. Well, duh! They weren't behaving lawfully when they hacked the Electoral Commission, parliament, FCDO. That's kind of the point?
19
153
385
Absolutely outrageous. This UK government are Chinese stooges. MI5 Chief warns that risks cannot be fully mitigated.
BREAKING: MI5 warns it is 'not realistic' to eliminate 'every potential risk' linked to China's new London embassy https://t.co/o8WCWrndYU 📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube
0
0
0
When Private sector pay growth is 3.6% and public sector pay growth is 7.9% and inflation is near 3%, all that is really happening in substance, is that the government is extracting from people and growth, and paying it to Union friends. This is why communism always collapses.
This is downstream of a debt based economy. Inflation is how your wealth is extracted upwards.
0
0
1
The comments. 😂 Everyone knows that @darrenpjones is lying and that he is also an idiot. 1. Chagos was never a British colony and there is no legitimate claim to it by Mauritius because it was never theirs and is not within their maritime borders. 2. Treaty is not ratified.
“The treaty has been signed with the Mauritian government. So I can't reverse the clock on that.” Chief secretary to the prime minister Darren Jones reacts to President Trump calling the Chagos Islands deal ‘an act of great stupidty’. @DarrenPJones | @StigAbell
0
0
0
The UK’s plans to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius is a grave geopolitical mistake. The UK has had sovereignty of the islands since 1814. The French were the first to settle the uninhabited islands starting in 1776. They have never been part of
166
811
5K
What's most hilarious about this, is that people are actually taking him seriously 😂 With both Trump and Elon, far too many people do not realise that they don't mean everything they say, and that they use sarcasm sometimes. 😂
@Ryanair I really want to put a Ryan in charge of Ryan Air. It is your destiny.
0
0
0