Nathan Ruser
@Nrg8000
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Picking quarrels and provoking trouble (寻衅滋事) Analyst at @ASPI_CTS
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THREAD. Today, after months/years of work,
@ASPI_ICPC
and I are able to launch the Xinjiang Data Project. It currently has the largest dataset of detention facilities (380+) and nearly 1000 significant cultural sites mapped out. Check it out:
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🧵Now that day has broken, and we're getting better evidence, I'm willing to share some PRELIMINARY thoughts on the al-Ahli hospital explosion. The photos of the scene are, to me, not consistent with an airstrike and are not consistent with claims that 500+ people were killed.
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I'm sorry but there is absolutely no chance an explosion leaving an impact like this could kill 500 people.
تغطية صحفية: صورة للمستشفى المعمداني بعد قصف الاحتلال له ليلة أمس بمجزرة راح ضحيتها المئات من العائلات.
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Unconfirmed but solid reports that Ukrainian troops have reached the Russian border to the North-East of Kharkiv near the town of Ternova. Today the UAF General Staff announced that Russian troops have withdrawn across the border. This unconfirmed news makes that seem more likely
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Putin's War - The Daily Brief - March 31
5 weeks ago, Russia invaded Ukraine. After some initial gains, their progress rapidly slowed. Now, every day for the past week, Ukraine has retaken more territory than it's lost.
See this thread for a series of maps and downloadable data.
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Russian forces around Kyiv are retreating en masse, leaving behind wrecked armour and possibly trapped pockets of troops as the Ukrainian army advances.
This map shows settlements confirmed recaptured today (blue) and yesterday (yellow).
The siege of Chernihiv is also lifted.
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If you're wondering how Yesterday went for Russian troops invading Ukraine...
Here's a map of the 40 (!) towns and settlements claimed recaptured by Ukrainian forces yesterday. Along 8 different axes of advance.
Seems like half withdrawal, half rout.
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Crypto-bros are just a whole different species but goddamn this is funny.
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If anyone asks you how Russia's War in Ukraine is going, well, this comparison of the situation a month ago and today is pretty telling.
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4 days ago a video showing 3-400 detainees handcuffed & blindfolded at a train station in Xinjiang was uploaded to YouTube ()
In this thread I'll share how I've verified that this video was filmed at 库尔勒西站 (41.8202, 86.0176) on or around August 18th.
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This 'investigation' is flawed. It concludes that the al-Ahli hospital explosion was from an Iron-Dome intercepted rocket that fell/exploded.
This is demonstrably untrue as the Iron-Dome is a terminal-phase interceptor. It does not intercept in the launch phase.
An Al Jazeera digital investigation found no grounds for the Israeli army's claim that the strike on the al-Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza was caused by a failed rocket launch.
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I hope all the people I've seen who reflexively cheered this Hamas attack are prepared to tell me in detail how sending platoons of armed militants to surround a music festival and slaughter 250+ partygoers is✨resistance✨because y'all sure as hell vocal about it yesterday.
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Putin's War - The Ukraine Briefing on May 5th
THREAD
Today Ukraine announced that it was launching the 2nd, offensive phase of its war with Russia, after claiming Russian forces have 'stalled' in their own offensive moves.
Let's look at both parts of this statement.
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The Ukrainian city of Sumy came under attack at 3am on the first day of Russia's invasion. For most of the war, it has been practically besieged and regularly bombarded. Five weeks after the invasion began, Sumy is now reconnected by road to Poltava and the siege is lifted.
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So... a mother in Uvalde was able to drive 40 miles, plead with police, get hand-cuffed, get uncuffed, jump the school fence, run inside and rescue her children while police sat around waiting for backup and listening to children get murdered.
There's no fixing that.
A mom of two children at Uvalde was put in handcuffs after urging police and law enforcement to enter the school.
Once freed from her cuffs, she jumped the school fence, ran inside and sprinted out with her kids.
New from
@WSJ
:
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If you're wondering how Russian logistics are going... Here are their soldiers stealing food ~100hr into a war and 20km from the Russian border. If these troops have already run out of food it doesn't bode well everywhere else.
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Photos of the aftermath show that the vast majority of the damage is from fire. Only 3 cars show any clear sign of kinnetic/structural damage. And for two of them, the general structure remains intact - despite clear damage.
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Indeed, within 10m of the impact site there are cars which appear mostly undamaged.
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Footage from ground level this morning shows essentially no crater. And very little damage to the building around 20m away from the impact site.
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Putin's War -- The Ukraine Briefing for May 9th
THREAD
- Russian troops have withdrawn from several villages around Kharkiv, and now only control a small strip near the Border, West of the Donets River.
- Ukrainian recon and saboteur units are harassing Russian forces near Izyum.
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This lack of structural damage to most cars is also clear in the IDF released drone fotage from less than 2hr after the explosion. Again these only show 3 cars with structural damage, and cars more than around 10-15m away appearing mostly undamaged.
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First, I should mention that this thread isn't a forensic or expert investigation, I'm just sharing what I see and what I've seen previously. Nor am I attributing one way or another. Nor does this negate the countless civilians killed in Israel's campaign.
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Holy shit, Ben Cohen's (the Ben in Ben & Jerry's) response to Ukraine was unhinged 'Ukraine surrender to Russia, it's all the US fault' garbage.
He funded prizes for Putin's propagandists & Bucha denialism.
He spent >$1mil on lobbying against aid to Ukraine.
This statement reeks.
'Peace is a core value of Ben & Jerry’s. From Iraq to Ukraine [the company] has consistently stood up for these principles. Today is no different,' the company’s board chair Anuradha Mittal told the FT
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Both Yesterday and the day before lower resolution satellite imagery showed fighting closer to the city, and I've been mapping it accordingly, but I'm still shocked at the apparent ferocity of the fighting around Izyum and how close it has gotten to the city.
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This afternoon Ukraine announced that it had liberated four more villages (Ruska Lozova, Slobidske, Prelesne and Verkhnia Rohanka) from the outskirts of Kharkiv. This follows the recapture of Momotove yesterday. Ukrainian forces continue to push Russia back from Kharkiv city.
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This map shows claimed advances by Ukrainain forces towards Kupiansk, in the Kharkiv countryside. Not all of these claims have been visually verified.
A breakthrough in this area puts serious stress on Russian positions in Izyum and Lyman as Kupiansk is a key supply node.
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Europe Under Attack
Today is 6 months since Russia invaded Ukraine, and I'm bringing my map back. The frontlines have remained remarkably static since Ukraine began fielding HIMARS in early July, with almost no Russian gains since. Yellow outline shows changes since Jun 25.
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Putin's War - May 16th Map Briefing.
Today there are unconfirmed but reliable reports that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Donets river near Kharkiv and taken up positions in 2 villages.
Russia captured a village near Lyman and Adiivka.
4th map shows recaptured land in yellow.
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Protesters have made multiple attempts to flee the campus this morning, but have always been attacked and repelled. It's hard to imagine what police hope to achieve if it's not bloodshed.
They can't get into the uni without live fire (they've tried).
[1118PolyU] 0830 Protestors tried to leave the campus for times but
#HKpolice
fired rounds of tear gas. They eventually returned to campus
#hkprotest
#HKPoliceBrutality
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Compare the damage from photos of rocket impacts in Ashkelon from last weekend. The only real difference is that this explosion appears to have involved more accelerant (which would track with reporting that this barrage was aimed at Tel Aviv).
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But it seems extremely clear to me, that much (most (all)) of the initial reporting and discussion surrounding this explosion was inaccurate. The discourse and the reaction has quickly overtaken the facts and now it seems that the facts don't really matter.
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In July 2016 a truck bomb in Baghdad killed ~350, this is the damage it did.
In Oct 2017, a truck bomb in Mogadishu killed 500+, this is the damage it did.
In Oct 2022, a truck bomb in Mogadishu killed ~125, this is the damage it did.
Compare any of that to the above.
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Next I want to highlight one of the things that the IDF claimed showing damage to roofs of hospital buildings around 30-45m away from the impact site. This would be consistent with an object that broke apart in midair, though I wouldn't view this point as conclusively as others..
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But all in all, the damage we see is consistent with a small impact, with a lot of fuel accelerant that likely caused most of the fire damage, and very little (within a very narrow radius) structural damage.
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holy crap this man is so dumb
for the head of one of the largest social media network to have absolutely no disinformation-radar (indeed to actively fall into disinformation) is so dangerous but here we are.
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Satellite imagery from the Galwan Valley on June 22nd shows that 'disengagement' really isn't the word that the government should be using. This gif shows the small outpost that sparked the June 15th clashes. It has grown hugely in size. Indian troops aren't dismantling this one.
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But 500's incredibly high number, honestly implausible. Overlaying the area of damage on Google Earth - keep in mind this is mostly from burning cars NOT the explosion - it is 228m2.
This is that sort of crowd density (assuming there were no survivors which is also implausible).
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Elon Musk publicly admitting to talking to Putin after he spews pretty much verbatim Russian talking points on Ukraine does not make him look like the smart man© he wants to be seen as...
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Next I want to address the claimed casualty count of 500+ killed, which seems widely inconsistent with the damage we can see. I am not doubting that civilians were killed, videos show the bodies collected in the hospital courtyard and I have no reason to doubt that.
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This is an unbelievable level of cope that's just so funny to read.
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This you? Quite the self reflective post, I see.
Being a westerner and rooting on shit like this like it’s the NBA playoffs is deeply sick. For either side. You’re not sophisticated, you’re spiritually dead.
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Compare this to airstrikes in Gaza which tend to leave a much larger crater and cause a lot more damage, they also almost always leave big deposits of concrete dust after striking a structure, though the construction of this particular hospital could be different.
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Right now the situation around Popasna, in Luhansk appears the most concerning for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops have dedicated a lot of effort to that axis, and have apparently been able to break through quite far into Ukrainian lines.
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Namely because the 'before' image is from two days prior to the strike, I believe there were reports of the hospital being minorly damaged in strikes during that period so it is possible that the roof damage is not from the same time as the explosion.
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It has also put me in the unenviable position of not being able to fully trust the numbers that come out of the Gazan Health Ministry, considering they are the only source providing numerical figures of the unquestionably numerous casualties in Gaza.
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Same lack of significant cratering, same structural damage/radius to parked cars. Similar in just a lot of ways.
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Today is the 100th day since Russia invaded Ukraine and unleashed hell on the country. Practically every day since Ukraine's courage has forced Russia to downgrade its aims and Ukraine has retaken over 1,000 settlements from occupation.
This map shows recaptured areas in yellow.
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This thread is going around attempting to show 'proof' that Israel was responsible for the explosion at the Gazan hospital.
It does not, the video is from a totally different incident, hour after the hospital blast and shows a strike 1.5-4km away. I'll explain why.
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This morning, the Russian military fired a guided ballistic missile at a train station full of civilians fleeing clashes, killing at least 30 people in an obvious war crime.
Russian soldiers had written "за детей" on the missile, meaning "for the children".
Inhuman.
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Putin's War - The Ukraine Map briefing for May 3rd.
Ukrainian troops have been able to re-enter the strategic town of Staryi Saltiv, making Russian positions west of the Donets river quite untenable.
Russian troops have taken control of Yampil and are at the outskirts of Lyman.
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None of this absolves the IDF from the countless civilians it has killed in this aerial campaign. There is no excuse for the degree of civilian casualties that the IDF considers acceptable, nor of the siege tactics. And no one can deny the extent of devestation brought to Gaza.
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😮💨
Looking at the 'splash' analysis is only relevant if the projectile had completed a nice parabolic trajectory & fired correctly.
It has next to no relevance in a hypothesis where there's a misfire and a mostly 'falling' projectile. Therefore, this isn't really helpful.
Preliminary analysis by FA,
@alhaq_org
&
@earshot_ngo
into the
#AlAhli
hospital blast in Gaza casts significant doubt on IOF claims that the source of the deadly explosion was a Palestinian-fired rocket travelling west to east.
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This video shows that Ukrainian troops are still able to operate armour in the very outskirts of Mariupol. Not only do they still have working BTR-4s despite a nearly month-long siege, but they still operate in large parts of the suburbs.
See this overlay on
@Militarylandnet
maps
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Tfw Russian propaganda accidentally reveals that Ukrainian forces are about 5km further advanced than previously thought...
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Begging.
BEGGING
people who have a modicum of respect for human rights or facts or basic descency to stop sharing tweets from people like Alan Macleod or Jackon Hinkle and other people or outlets who literally relish in sharing pro-Assadist war propaganda and disinformation.
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Several days ago Ukrainian troops in Kharkiv launched a counter-offensive towards the strategic city of Izyum. Satellite imagery from Yesterday shows dozens of fires (likely from shelling) approaching Izyum from the west. The closest is 600m from the city.
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This appears to be confirmation from official US Defence sources that Ukrainian troops have retaken the strategic town of Staryi Saltiv. That town is 40km NE of the centre of Kharkiv (a circle showing 40km is mapped below) and had been rumoured recaptured by Ukraine today.
Ukraine’s military has pushed the Russian military about 40 km back from Kharkiv: Senior US Defense Official.
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To highlight the significance of the past week, here is a gif showing changes compared to a similar map I made last week. All the areas circled in blue are where Ukrainian forces have gained territory, in red shows where Russian forces have.
(ignore the changing colour scale)
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What is also interesting is that these fires are not just to the West of Izyum but also to the East, suggesting Ukraine is pushing from multiple directions.
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This account,
@DefMon3
, is one of the best sources mapping the conflict in Ukraine. That's an extremely helpful service for everyone.
@TwitterSupport
should absolutely not have suspended them, and I hope this can be fixed.
A major account
@DefMon3
with 40,000+ followers that puts a lot of information/intel about the war in Ukraine is suspended ❌ on Twitter
Defmon3 is mostly Pro-Ukrainian🇺🇦 and is a well known OSINT account
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The PLA is planning to conduct live-fire military exercises within the sovereign territorial waters of Taiwan (blue line). These are the most provocative moves by China in decades & would qualify for the UN definition of state aggression.
Unambiguously escalatory & in the wrong.
PLA will conduct important military exercises and training activities including live-fire drills in six regions surrounding the Taiwan island from Thursday to Sunday
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While Jasper Tsang is in PolyU calling on protesters to surrender, this is how police are acting to those they get their hands on. Notice the raptor repeatedly kicking the man in the head. No clue of his status but havent seen him get up.
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Ukrainian troops have pushed back against Russian troops, recapturing Makariv, Makovyshche and pushing towards Berezivka. This move threatens the supply of one of the major groups of Russian troops to the West of Kyiv (map shows estimates).
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This is a political detention camp in Xinjiang. It is 3km long. It would cover Disneyland three and a half times. Almost everyone detained there was detained for ordinary acts of faith and culture (Islamic and Uyghur among others).
It last expanded last November, by a kilometre.
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While Ukraine's offensive in Zaporizhia is starting to ramp up, Russia has spent the last 2 months fortifying defensive lines across the entire oblast.
Ive made an interactive map that shows the most recent satellite imagery and these lines.
Download below
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Strava released their global heatmap. 13 trillion GPS points from their users (turning off data sharing is an option). … It looks very pretty, but not amazing for Op-Sec. US Bases are clearly identifiable and mappable
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These trenches dug by Russian forces during their invasion of the region were dug in the most irradiated areas of the Chernobyl Radiation Area, see this map of soil Caesium radiation around the disaster area, with the location of the trenches marked. No wonder some got sick.
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It is also more than possible that there were many people in the area. And the casualties could be quite high, especially if people were out in the open and there was falling, burning fuel.
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A video of a Russian soldier running maintenance on a Russian BTR giving the finger to a Ukrainian drone, shortly before the BTR gets destroyed by a dropped mortar.
#Ukraine
: Ukrainian forces in the East, using drone-dropped munitions, managed to destroy a Russian BTR-82A APC concealed next to buildings.
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I spent a while looking for an individual IAF airstrike on a singular structure, rather than broad/widespread devestation, and found this in lower resolution imagery. It shows the crater, but also the concrete dust cloud deposits that are around 30m from the impact site.
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April 2nd satellite imagery of Kherson shows that the graves I've mentioned before () are still being dug. Since the beginning of this invasion, ~824 grave plots have been dug in Kherson Cemetery.
Given what we know about Bucha this is very concerning
Satellite imagery, provided by
@Planet
to
@Cen4infoRes
, shows bulldozers in Kherson digging lines of graves at the city cemetery on February 28th.
The city was attacked today by Russian forces from multiple directions.
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There are not 12,000 Russian troops stationed in Transnistria.
And the New York Times should know better than that.
There are at least 12,000 Russian troops stationed in Transnistria, which reached to within 25 miles of Odesa, Ukraine’s chief port and third-largest city. Odesa is potentially a major target in Moscow’s stalled push to seize Ukraine’s Black Sea coast - NYTimes
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I don't know why the Gazan Health Ministry would lie about something like this (I mean I do know) since to me, this just calls into question a lot of their other casualty claims which I'd previously just taken as largely true.
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Rahile's story cuts deep with the vindictiveness with which Beijing has erased Uyghur culture. Her only crime was to be an anthropologist. When authorities detained Rahile, they also sent bulldozers to demolish the 1000-year old historical town she spent her life studying.
My friend and colleague Rahile Dawut, an eminent anthropologist and a lovely human being, has been sentenced to life in prison.
The Chinese government says Rahile is guilty of "splittism." The truth, though, is that her only crime was being born a
#Uyghur
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There is also this claimed audio intercept of communications between Hamas members in the area. I've tried to make the above thread accurate without relying on claims from the IDF which are often inaccurate, but this is still worth noting.
Islamic Jihad struck a Hospital in Gaza—the IDF did not.
Listen to the terrorists as they realize this themselves:
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Satellite imagery captured by
@Planet
on March 16th gives us the best picture of the aftermath of the Kherson Airbase strikes. It shows 10 helicopters were likely destroyed in the attack, with an additional three likely being inoperable from damage.
cc
@oryxspioenkop
@UAWeapons
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Armed Burmese resistance groups have now created standardised large drones that are capable of dropping mortar rounds. Modified commercial drones that drop small bomblets have proliferated across Myanmar in the last three months or so, but these DIY ones have a larger payload.
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These are mugshots of four underaged Children arbitrarily detained in Xinjiang. They are some of the 23k listed detainees from a newly leaked police database, from just one Xinjiang county of 300,000 people.
Rahile Omer
Memetreshit Memettursun
Abdusemi Abduweli
Zeytunigul Ablehet
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There have also reportedly been Ukrainian offensives around Izyum and Kherson in recent days, although no details can be confirmed. In Izyum, satellite imagery shows that Ukrainian forces crossed the Donets River, with offensive actions continuing despite strikes, by all reports.
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.
@TwitterSupport
, are you really okay with verified accounts on your platform justifying the bombing of a maternity hospital with crackpot conspiracy theories?
The propaganda campaign to justify this strike is one of the most disgusting things I've seen on Twitter.
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FYI, every map you're seeing of Sievierodonetsk showing who controls what down to the block and the street is made up. There isnt enough info out there to map the situation in that city even remotely accurately. Together the maps can give you a broad idea, but none are right.
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Putin's War - The Ukraine Daily Map Briefing - April 5th.
Russia's withdrawal from north Ukraine is nearly complete.
🇷🇺 gains from the Donbas & Izyum.
🇺🇦 gains in Kherson.
4th map shows territory recaptured by Ukraine (in yellow).
Download data:
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@comradekelley
"Living a really great life"
who tf wouldnt in these luxurious internment camps
here are a few of the over 250 suspected detention camps in Xinjiang.
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Also see this to show the scale of the structural damage and concrete dust.
Looking at the ratio between red and infrared bands shows a better view of the actual impacts through the smoke and concrete dust.
This is Beit Hanoun near the Erez crossing.
Absolutely unprecedented levels of bombardment, including of civilian areas.
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Also, note there's no evidence of any bridgehead under firm Ukrainian control, so there's no 'blue' on my map in the areas with fighting. This is because the units there are likely highly mobile, ambush and harassment units. However, I assess that Russia has lost firm control.
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First, we need to look at the area surrounding Kharkiv. In recent days, Russian forces have withdrawn from large areas to the West of the Donets River, blowing up bridges behind their retreat.
The main road bridge across the Donets was blown up around May 3rd, east of Rubizhne.
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Just to make it clear for everyone:
Satellite imagery I've seen shows that not a single structure in the training camp targeted by the Indian Air Force was damaged. Some geolocated strikes landed ~200m to the SW of the site, but there does not appear to be any material damage.
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This map shows how little territory has changed hands in Ukraine over the past month. The fighting has shifted to very slow and grinding advances, reliant on artillery more than maneuver. Russian gains are in purple, Ukrainian gains in yellow.
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Ukrainian troops in Kharkiv set up a pontoon bridge crossing the Donets river near the village of Protopopivka between April 25th and 28th. This opens the potential of establishing a bridgehead across the river and threatening Russia's rear areas behind Izyum.
h/t
@CalibreObscura
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In Kherson, a small number of villages have also reportedly been recaptured by Ukrainian troops in the past few days. The villages have not been named, and therefore cannot be mapped, but official statements claimed fighting was occurring in the vicinity of Tomyna Balka.
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Putin's War - The Daily Briefing Map of Ukraine.
Today marks 1 month since Russian troops invaded Ukraine. So I'm going to share a thread with a variety of maps.
1st: A map showing the chronology of the Russian forward line every week of the invasion.
HD -
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Putin's War -- The May 10th Map Briefing
Relatively few changes.
Ukrainian troops advanced into five abandoned villages near Kharkiv.
Russian troops captured the town of Velkya Komyshuvakha near Izyum.
Cleanup ops continue on the company of Russian troops that cross the Donets.
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More on the ground footage of the scene, also showing the lack of a crater.
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Reports of some very significant gains by Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv.
I have drawn them in the Geroman-copium art-style to convoy how unconfirmed these gains are right now.
Старый Салтов наш!Наши контролируют территорию вплоть до Рубежанского моста.Мост орки при отступлении взорвали полностью.За дамбой,в сторону Волчанска пожгли кучу техники орков,но территория все еще за ними.По моей пасеке при отступлении проехал БТР ордынцев,есть потери в уликах(
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Confirmation that HK police are using mass arrest to deter people from political protest.
The clearest and loudest link that police are not working as law enforcement but as political enforcement of an absent government. What's the technical definition of a militia?
@lim_megumi
@cityusucbc
@RobertJonGodden
A police officer speaking on video told us this is a deliberate new tactic from police, aimed at deterring the wo lei fei and others from participating in protests entirely, even the newer and smaller gatherings like those against quarantine centers for coronavirus patients
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Someone very kindly sent me higher resolution imagery of the airstrike impact I was talking about in this tweet. This demonstrates all the points I Was trying to make about the damage of IAF airstrikes.
I spent a while looking for an individual IAF airstrike on a singular structure, rather than broad/widespread devestation, and found this in lower resolution imagery. It shows the crater, but also the concrete dust cloud deposits that are around 30m from the impact site.
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🧵This isn't how I would summarise this investigation at all. I think it is pretty poor. It goes from pointing out that the windows of an adjoining church are intact to saying an Israeli airburst weapon is possible. Windows ~25m away from an airburst munition will not be intact.
This is about as good as it gets. Everyone on each side of this conflict — which in America is just raw political tribalism at this point — should watch it.
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Today, I released a short report into the location of Chinese & Indian forces along 3 hotspots @ Ladakh sector, using satellite imagery from May and June.
Please check it out here if you're interested.
All hotspots have seen a significant build up.
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