🧵🚨 New Book Release! The Politics of Coercion: State and Regime Making in #Cambodia 🚨 Coming next week, 15 September 2024!

Really perceptive points about what fuels the scam economy in SE Asia from ⁦@Neiloughlin⁩

My new article for @Diplomat_APAC is a deep dive into the politics of scamming in SEA + the international finance & other networks that sustain it. https://t.co/7H7QbGKslV #SoutheastAsia #Cybercrime #IllicitEconomies #PoliticalEconomy #Governance

11/ This moment underscores the structural risks facing states where illicit and politically protected capital underpin economic and political order. #Cambodia #SoutheastAsia #IllicitFinance #DirtyMoney #PoliticalEconomy

10/ Much will depend on how the regime manages the balance between financial stability, political loyalty, and the entrenched role of criminal rents in the economy. The costs of Cambodia’s political–criminal integration are now becoming harder to ignore.

9/ The move against Chen Zhi may also reshape #Cambodia’s criminal economy. New actors could fill the gap, injecting short-term liquidity but reinforcing long-term dependence on illicit capital.

8/ At the elite level, tycoons tied to the ruling party have long been expected to provide funds in normal times and during crises. Will they be asked to step in again—and how will those excluded from the scam economy react?

7/ Many households already face economic strain from high debt, tariffs, and weak growth. Tourism and other legitimate sectors have been affected by the reputational impact of the #scamming economy.

6/ The key questions now are: – How will the government manage the fallout from sanctions against a major economic actor? – Who will absorb the costs—banks, businesses, or ordinary #Cambodians?

5/ Some in #Cambodia’s economy have benefited from inflows associated with illicit or politically protected activity. But this integration of criminal capital carries risks.

4/ Such dependence on #scam-linked and grey-zone capital creates systemic vulnerabilities. #Sanctions rarely stay confined to individuals: they raise compliance costs, intensify scrutiny, and constrain the financial system as a whole.

3/ Over the past decade, parts of #Cambodia’s economy have become tied to capital from casinos, speculative real estate, and increasingly, #cyberscamming networks operating inside the country. These flows bring liquidity and rents—but also reputational and legal risks.

2/ While the banking system appears to have sufficient liquidity to manage the situation, the wider implications remain unclear. The episode exposes Cambodia’s growing dependence on high-risk and illicit capital.

1/ Last week’s US & UK #sanctions on #PrinceBank, its chairman Chen Zhi, and entities linked to the #PrinceGroup have generated major financial and political uncertainty in #Cambodia. The #NationalBank has moved to reassure depositors after reports of delayed USD transfers.

CAMBODIA/UK: UK Foreign Office announces sanctions against Chen Zhi's Prince Group. Sanctions freeze £112m in London property. 1/2

Kaibo is notorious for violence, human trafficking & forced criminality. The Cambodian Government pretends it doesn't exist. Videos like this make this position increasingly difficult (and embarrassing) to maintain. 2/3

New article in @ConversationUK @ConversationUS : "Dynasties still dominate South-East Asian politics – in both democracies and authoritarian systems." https://t.co/OiIfj0CGPe #SoutheastAsia #Politics #Democracy #Authoritarianism

New article with @ward_berenschot in @GlobalizationsJ—intro to special issue. Makes the case for + suggest comparative dimensions of land dispossession, drawing on papers on #Brazil, #India, #Indonesia, #Cambodia, #Thailand #EastTimor +more. #LandGrabbing

In recent Thai history, these @PheuThaiParty PMs were toppled out of office: 1) @ThaksinLive: military coup 2006 2) Samak: court dismissal 2008 3) Somchai: party dissolution 2008 4) @PouYingluck: coup 2014 5) @Thavisin: court dismissal 2024 6) @ingshin: court dismissal today

In much of the world the “authoritarian” threat comes in the form of populists who use their mandates to erode checks In Thailand it’s the opposite: unelected institutions usurping power from popularly elected leaders The list below is striking:

My new book review for @Diplomat_APAC of '#Scam: Inside Southeast Asia’s Cybercrime Compounds'. A must read new book on #SoutheastAsia's scamming epidemic. #Cambodia #Myanmar #Laos #Philippines #Thailand #China #crime https://t.co/Q0qAoBHF7m