Multipolarity The Podcast
@MultipolarPod
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Charting the rise of a multipolar world order. Podcast. Hosted by @philippilk and @admcollingwood . Produced by @gavhaynes
Joined January 2023
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Pinned Tweet
Alright question lovers.
Time for a Q&A episode.
For one week only,
@philippilk
and
@admcollingwood
will be answering your geo-economics, politics and war questions.
Plus ONE personal question.
Please pile them up below, or email to multipolaritythepodcast
@gmail
.com
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The obvious fact that the sanctions imposed on Russia have failed to achieve their aims is starting to become the mainstream view. It's therefore a good time to ask why this is, and what it says about the competency and strategic planning of Western political leadership.
🧵1/n
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The last 12 days in Israel and Gaza have shown us more than horror and depravity. They have shown us that
#Multipolarity
is no longer a theory or possible future state: it is here. We undoubtedly live in a Multipolar world order now. Worse, the West appears to be in a...
🧵[1/n]
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Today, Xi Jinping is to meet with Joko Widodo, the president of Indonesia, so let's discuss a subject that might seem dull and esoteric, but which is in fact crucial to the geopolitics and economics of the coming multipolar world order: Indonesia's trade policy. 🧵
1/n
Chinese President Xi Jinping will be in Chengdu to not only attend the World University Games but also to meet with several world leaders including Jokowi, President of Indonesia.
Mature diplomacy even though China and Indonesia have problems in South China Sea.
Hopefully,
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Submarines would be one of the most important weapons in the event of a war between 🇨🇳 and 🇺🇲. In numbers and capabilities of nuclear subs, the US Navy has a wide lead over the PLAN. So advantage America? Not so fast, Grasshopper.
A 🧵 on why it's more equal than it seems.
1/n
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India is considering a ban on all rice exports in order to dampen inflation before the coming election. India accounts for a huge 40% of global rice trade. This is important, because food is now a big issue, even in the West.
[READ NEXT TWEETS FOR ANALYSIS]
[1/n]
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A 🧵 on why Europe's economic, political and social reality makes significantly higher defence spending unlikely, despite the broad consensus between European establishment figures and US analysts (most prominently on X
@ElbridgeColby
) and politicians.
Desire≠Reality.
1/n
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The modern world cannot survive without grain, fertilisers, oil or gas. It can without Western services. The flip side of this is that Russia's natural resource, industry and manufacturing strength make it largely autarkic.
@policytensor
, writing in June last year...
18/n
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German manufacturing PMI is approaching Covid-lockdown levels. For months we have argued that sanctions cut off German industry from its most economically rational source of energy, and that this would obviously have negative consequences. The deniers are starting to look foolish
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...the size, development and importance of the Russian economy. The idea that Russia was "a gas station with nukes," had sunk into the Western received wisdom to such an extent that even usually thoughtful intellectuals like Yuval Noah Harari appeared to believe it.
8/n
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@MarkGaleotti
As
@policytensor
pointed out, economic warfare is essentially a playground game of 'Mercy'. At present, data suggests Europe is feeling more pain than Russia. ENDS
If you enjoyed this analysis, please retweet and look up the Multiparty Podcast on YouTube all good podcast apps.
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In other words, the size and power of the Russian economy was significantly underestimated; received wisdom was grossly misaligned with reality.
The second mistake Western policy makers made was related to the *position* of the Russian economy in the global economic...
15/n
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...market standards. This year, the IMF expects the Russian economy to return to growth, and indeed outperform the economies of Germany, Britain and France. Clearly, therefore, sanctions have failed.
But why? The most obvious reason was a fundamental misunderstanding of...
7/n
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Two instructive macroeconomic releases of late offer a view on the state of the Russian economy and, en passant, the success of sanctions.
A quick thread. 🧵
1/4
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Just finished recording a great episode with
@SwordMercury
on America's waning power in the Middle East. Drops on Thursday. Must listen.
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The demise of shipbuilding in the Western world, and the centrality of East Asia in that industry, has been widely understood for decades. Surprising that commentators should suddenly wake up to it. It's not a 'problem' possible to solve overnight: it's a *predicament* that...
China took over shipbuilding years ago. Europe is tiny by comparison. The United States doesn’t even make the list and falls into the ‘Other’ category. Ouch. 🚢⚓️
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...certainly less important than, say agriculture, industry or construction in a time of war. Below,
@russeurope
shows that for productive sectors only, the Russian economy is *bigger* than Germany's, and, he adds in the accompanying text, twice the size of France's.
14/n
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...one nation with another. It thus fails to capture real purchasing power & inflation. Purchasing Power Parity measurements of GDP seek to remedy this, and in the chart below, we see that Russia's GDP PPP is far more better compared to *Germany's* than it is to Italy's.
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If true, this would be a stunning move. To apply sanctions on an ally -- an EU and NATO member state -- would be truly stunning act.
In a nearly unprecedented move, the US is planning sanctions against an EU-member state, Hungary. Officials of two sides supposedly in secret consultation in past weeks concerning their introduction / 444
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...went even farther, arguing that Russia had lost foreign business presence in the country that accounted for 40% of its GDP, and that there was "no path out of economic oblivion for Russia."
Instead, Russian GDP declined only 2.1% in 2022, a mild recession by emerging...
6/n
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First, to understand the scale of the failure, it's important to define the original goals of the sanctions -- or at least what Western leaders hoped they would achieve. In the third week of February 2022, US President Joe Biden said that "As a result of these...
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...to its former growth trend, and it's difficult to break something twice. It *did*, though, become more resilient. Finally, the West likely underestimated the quality of Russia's economics and monetary team, led by Anton Siluanov Elvira Nabiullina and Maxim Oreshkin.
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...unprecedented sanctions, the ruble almost is immediately reduced to rubble," and push the Russian economy from being the 11th biggest in the world to outside the top 20. The UK Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary variously said that sanctions would take "the wheels...
3/n
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...argued that Russia was, "together with the USA, one of the only two states in the international system that can survive relatively unscathed in complete autarchy." He concluded that in a game of economic 'Mercy', Russia had the upper hand and time was on its side.
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Meanwhile, former US President Barack Obama said that "Russia doesn't make anything," while the idea that Russia's economy was "about the size of Italy's" was commonplace, adding to the sense that Russia would be an economic pushover. It is true that in nominal terms...
9/n
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...Russia's economy was only a little larger than Italy's before the beginning of the Ukraine conflict (chart below). But is that a reasonable measure of an economy? Probably not. Nominal GDP simply uses current national currency exchange rates with the dollar to compare...
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Before the Ukraine crisis, it was commonly accepted that this team -- and especially the central bank -- were among the most competent financial and economic administrators in the world. As it transpired, they navigated the extreme stress the economy was placed under...
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...superbly well (although this is perhaps unacceptable to admit in Western policy making circles).
Sanctions have unambiguously failed to achieve the goals articulated by senior US, EU and British politicians and officials. Russian PPP GDP is now larger than Germany's...
27/n
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...that Russia is skirting sanctions by purchasing goods through third countries, a process facilitated by European and American businesses.
@RobinBrooksIIF
shows how Germany has increased its sales to such third party countries manifold. The same is true of refined oil...
22/n
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...extent that Moscow would be unable to continue its war against Ukraine (and perhaps even lead to regime change). Many experts agreed, forecasting a catastrophic effect on the Russian economy. The Institute of Financial Studies predicted a 15% fall in GDP. A Yale study...
5/n
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...take PPP, we see that the two countries are much closer, with Germany at 3.5% and Russia 3.1%. Yet
@russeurope
goes farther by examining the actual productive quality of the two nations. Services, he argues, vary greatly in their productive nature and that they are...
13/n
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Few would consider Germany an economic pushover. In his analysis,
@russeurope
highlights what this difference means. The screenshot below shows that in nominal GDP, Russia accounts for only 1.9% of the global economy -- less than half Germany's 4.4%. However, if we...
12/n
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...things that the world needed and couldn't replicate than the West had that Russia needed (although there are clearly some things that Russia cannot replace, the balance still favours Russia). We can see this when we look at export data for key commodities. Put simply...
17/n
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...and trading system. As Multipolarity Podcast host and macroeconomist
@philippilk
highlighted a year ago, the sanctions plan relied on the "implicit assumption that Russia needs us more than we need Russia." However, he pointed out that instead, Russia has many more...
16/n
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In PPP GDP terms, the Russian economy is now ~15% larger than Germany's. It is projected to overtake Japan's this year. It seems the West underestimated the size of the Russian economy before applying sanctions, which appear to be doing nothing to hobble Russia's growth.
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...off the Russian war machine," and "hobble" its economy. The EU said that sanctions were designed to erode "sharply Russia's economic base." Clearly, the sanctions, which were indeed unprecedented in size and scope, were meant to damage the Russian economy to such an...
4/n
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The third misunderstanding was that, given Russia's aforementioned position in the global economy, it would be impossible to truly isolate. Primarily, we have seen this in Russia's sales of oil to India, China, Japan and elsewhere -- often above the price cap the West...
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All that's left for Britain and the EU is to try to find the most delicate of fine diplomatic lines, and pray the worst doesn't happen. Europe is left, through its own poor strategic thinking, at the mercy of foreign powers and distant events. It could go very, very wrong.
ENDS
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...annexation of Crimea. In fact, the West imposed significant sanctions on Russia, and forced the government to follow an ultra-conservative economic policy in which stability and resilience and stability were prioritised over growth. The economy never truly recovered...
24/n
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China is starting to relax its
#Hukou
laws. Media reports are missing the huge effects this could have on China's long-term prospects -- especially for solving demographic issues. Multipolarity has long suggested this might happen. But why is it important? Read on.
🧵1/n
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...imposed on Russia. Countries need oil, and even US allies were unwilling to commit economic suicide for the sake of a non-existential conflict. Less well understood, however, is that we have also seen such problems with *European sales* of goods to Russia. It is clear...
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...products going the other way, from Russia to Europe via India, Turkey or Morocco. Markets are not moral; clearly, cutting off Russia is far more difficult than imagined.
The Fourth misunderstanding was that the West had done "nothing" in 2014 after the Russian...
23/n
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Philip Pilkington has spent the whole week modelling food consumption decline as a useful metric for predicting riots.
Hear the full discussion that started the meme - on this week's Multipolarity.
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...cuts directly across the idea that Russia is entirely reliant on the oil and gas sector for its budget.
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
--On the scale, importance and composition of the Russian economy, Western leaders and received wisdom were wrong.
--Sanctions show no sign of working.
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@MarkGaleotti
This is true: the sanctions impose sub-optimal performance and their chances of huge success were overblown. Nevertheless, when judging them on the official promise, they have failed, and secondly it ignores the 'grind' on Western, especially European, economies.
29/n
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This is interesting because it is related to
#dedollarization
, but also the geopolitical history of the Middle East and the US pivot to Asia. Let's have a brief thread to give background to the news that Egypt is considering doing more trade in non-dollar currencies.
🧵1/n
Ditching the dollar
💲 Egypt to go away from dollar
Egypt is considering increasing its trade transactions using the yuan and the ruble, according to the country’s Minister of Finance, Mohammed Maait. The official emphasized that diversifying the currencies used for trade could
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German chancellor Olaf Scholz claims his country needs 1.5 million additional migrants per year to save the pension system. This will be a hard sell: Europe is shifting rightward. The Dutch government has even collapsed over the issue of migration. Scholz also has to be...
1/2
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Most are (correctly) watching this and realising it's bad news for the US in case of war (given, as
@davidpgoldman
has said, it can produce the US's entire missile inventory in a week). Missed is the readacross for demographic decline: in China robots are replacing workers.
1/4
Chinese automated cruise missile production line.
The video report says the factory has the capacity to produce the components for 1,000 missiles/day if running 24/7.
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Our producer is always telling us to stop patting ourselves on the back in 'we told you so' moments while recording. But it keeps happening...
Yeah we have 100% moved from “Germany isn’t deindustrialising stop being hysterical” to “of course the German economy is collapsing everyone knows that”. Expect more admissions of economic turmoil and collapse in the West to follow this next year or two. 🇩🇪
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It's official: Brazil can now trade with China in Yuan. The dollar is no longer necessary. China is setting up a clearing house in Brazil to facilitate. We on Multipolarity have been talking about this for two months.
Listen to Multipolarity: get ahead.
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What happens in Gaza in the coming months directly affects Europe through the channel of migration. The Arab Spring of 2011, and especially the Syrian Civil War and Libyan Crisis, led directly to the European Migration Crisis of 2015, when 1.3mln people entered Europe.
[2/n]
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Another data point showing just how far Saudi-US relations have fallen in only a couple of short years: MBS threatened the US with major economic pain if President Biden followed through on his threat to impose 'consequences' for the Saudi oil production cut. We at the...[1/2]
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#OPEC
Plus has announced another reduction in oil production. It's a surprise move, but shouldn't be. The whole point of OPEC+ is to keep prices as a sustainably high level to maximise long-term profits. With recessions in the west clearly on the way, cuts now make sense.
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...and given the diverging performance the IMF forecasts for this year, that gap can be expected to widen. More sensible analysts, such as Russia expert
@MarkGaleotti
, contend that expectations to begin with were unrealistic, and that sanctions grind slowly and finely.
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‼️Important‼️
The NY Fed has done the first study on US efforts to decouple from China. No evidence of new supply chains (i.e. re-shoring/friend-shoring isn't working), but affected companies have suffered a drop in bank lending, profitability & staffing, and lost $130bn from...
Huge, someone finally ran the numbers....Geopolitical Risk and Decoupling: Evidence from U.S. Export Controls
As a result of these disruptions, affected suppliers have negative abnormal stock returns, wiping out $130 billion in market capitalization, experience a drop in bank
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The Eurozone economy continues to struggle badly. Today, the final manufacturing PMI number came at 46.1 for March, below the growth/contraction line of 50, and lower than February's 46.5, when analysts had forecast an increase to 47. Bleak -- and an outlier compared with the...
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...the sub-surface equivalent of China's infamous A2-AD bubble. Further, China's submarine fleet is growing at an alarming rate.
Despite the US Navy's qualitatively better submarine fleet, they would be most likely operating in a highly contested space on near even terms.
END
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In coming years, Europe will face increasing pressure from the US and Europe's own Atlanticists to decouple from China. But Germany, for instance, is 2.5x more exposed to China than the US. Berlin is already struggling without Russian energy; losing China would be a catastrophe.
🇩🇪🇨🇳 - Germany is (by far) the EU economy that would have most to lose from decoupling
• Total exports and affiliates' revenues in China represent ~10% of Germany's GDP
• By comparison, US's exposure to China is more than half lower, at ~4% of GDP
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There is much chatter about the Yen's precipitous fall. Why is this happening? Three theories.
First, despite a return of a little inflation, Japan's central bank has not raised rates and has indicated it will retain a dovish monetary policy. Is this, traders will...
1/4
USD-JPY FX rate briefly hit 160 earlier today, the highest in 25 years. Then it got whacked down, helped by suspected Bank of 🇯🇵Japan intervention. But it will take more than $ billions of sales to fix Japan's economy/policy.
Chart from just now, 1 min bars, New York time stamp:
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The EU has recognised a declaration by the CELAC countries calling on Britain to resume negotiations on the Falkland Islands, causing a furious response from Britain. A month ago, Multipolarity warned about exactly this: the Falklands is again a live issue.
1/2
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...happen, and the more the US gets involved in them, the more tied down and drained it will become, and the more other countries will seek to take advantage by settling long running disputes. Turbulence ahead.
If you enjoyed this, consider subscribing to our excellent podcast.
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Brilliant episode this week with
@philippilk
and
@SwordMercury
examining in depth and in detail the disastrous strategic reality in the Middle East.
🪖US Military Doctrine and Capacity
🇮🇷 Iranian Options and Defences
♟️ Strategic Zugzwang
Must listen. Links in next tweet
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We all know what swing states are in US elections: they're states that either party could win and which could propel a candidate into the White House. But as we move to a
#multipolar
world order, we'll also have to get used to *geopolitical* swing states. Let's explain why.
🧵1/n
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For all the 'debt trap diplomacy' narrative, this is how China tends to work in practice: it builds infrastructure and/or restructures debt, and in exchange gets preferential deals for commodities. It seems preferable to IMF programmes that come with political strings attached.
0
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Ever more stories are emerging which suggest that US restrictions on China's access to chips is far more painful for US businesses than expected. One point to note here: this industry is extremely capital intensive. Losses in revenue might hobble US companies' ability to compete.
1
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Separating political rhetoric from reality is important. One of the largest geoeconomic stories at present is the US effort to boost manufacturing in key industries. But what are the facts on the ground? Let's look at US BLS data via Visual Capitalist.
🧵1/6
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#Deindustrialisation
continues apace in Germany. July factory orders decreased 11.7% from June, the worst fall since the COVID lockdowns essentially shut the German, and much of the world, economy. How bad is this figure? The consensus of economists had been for only a 4.3% drop.
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US noise dampening is best in class, and by all accounts remarkable -- but diesel electric subs are still quieter, as the US found out when a Swedish diesel electric sub scored multiple 'kills', including of an aircraft carrier, in a 2005 training exercise with the US Navy.
13/n
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...has emptied its munitions stores (in some cases almost entirely). Europe is thus reliant more than ever on the US for its defence, and newly reliant on the US and Arab nations for its energy. It therefore has little leverage in either Washington or the Middle East.
[15/n]
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Since the end of the Cold War, Europe has insouciantly relied on the US for its defence. By doing so, it de facto outsourced geopolitics to Washington -- even in the EU's backyard. The Ukraine conflict has cost Europe its most economically rational energy supplier, and...
[14/n]
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Tue @ 13:30 ET/18:30UK
Is Realism realistic for America, or will liberal idealists and neocons always control US foreign policy?
@ElbridgeColby
and
@Tinkzorg
discuss whether America's animal spirits can shift strategy
⏩ Retweet
⏩ Set a reminder
⏩ Join
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Russia has released its budget for the first three months of this year. First, tax revenues are 53.5% higher, suggesting the budget is getting healthier rather than slowly bleeding. Second, 2/3 of revenues come from non-oil and gas sectors, which...
4/5
Russia's state budget is very strong this year, despite the fact that spending in Q1 was 20% higher than in 2023. April will be even stronger due to scheduled oil taxes. Rising oil prices are a key factor, as the discount on Russian crude is shrinking.
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Increasingly we see leaders from the Global South talking like this. This is a clear failure of US soft power, and a clear argument that the US foreign policy framework is failing. As the world moves from Unipolarity to Multipolarity, countries have viable alternatives.
This is an extraordinary speech from Zambian opposition leader, Fred M'membe, addressing Kamala Harris and the evil US Empire that has assassinated progressive African leaders, plundered resources.
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...nuclear and natural resources superpower, has swung fully into the China camp while focusing its significant diplomatic potential toward the construction and expansion of diplomatic and trade blocs that are either explicitly anti-Western or else alternatives to...
[10/n]
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Yet in the war 🇨🇳 and 🇺🇲 would fight, that doesn't matter: for the job it needs them for (sit silently close to shore and wait for prey to approach), China has a well optimised and large fleet -- supplemented by an underwater listening network that might be thought of as...
18/n
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First, World Economics has released its ranking of counties by PPP GDP.
PPP offers a better means of comparison between countries: if a Big Mac costs $2 in France and $3 in Italy, that shouldn't mean Italy is considered 50% bigger than France. PPP adjusts for this.
2/5
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...munitions (it doesn't), its military-tech lead (it is still ahead in some areas, but behind in others), its Cold War, pre-mergers Military Industrial Complex (only five flabby, finacialized prime contractors remain), its pre-WTO industrial base (gone to SE Asia)...
[17/n]
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...immediately, problems arose and the EU sought to stem the tide. Individual EU states shut their borders, suspending Schengen ad hoc. The EU paid President Erdogan large sums to return refugees to Turkey, handing Ankara leverage in its future EU diplomatic relations.
[4/n]
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...and its full spectrum diplomatic institutional dominance. And because its goals and behaviour no longer match its means, and because it refuses to adjust (see: NATO expansion, Israel peace) even as other countries feel more room for manoeuvre than ever, conflict...
[18/n]
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At 4pm GMT (noon ET),
@philippilk
will join
@SwordMercury
to discuss the scariest geopolitical scenarios in the world today. Given the US-Russia proxy conflict, the Middle East, and trade war with China, there will be much to horrify!
🔄 Retreat
✅ Join
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Secondly, diesel electric subs are even quieter than modern SSNs. When running on batteries, diesel electric subs are essentially silent, with noise limited to water moving over the hull. SSNs radiate noise constantly from their nuclear power plants, as aforementioned.
12/n
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...happening in one of the world's most strategically important theatres should drive home the point. The danger is that the US is nowhere near coming to terms with this, and therefore is still acting as though it was 1998, and it still had its Cold War mountains of...
[16/n]
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Migration and energy make the Israel -
#Hamas
conflict one of great import to Europe. It has a huge interest in making sure the conflict is at least contained but preferably that it is ended quickly. The problem is that Europe with virtually zero leverage to achieve this.
[13/n]
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In other words, diesel electric subs are in some ways better suited for the job China needs them to do, their weaknesses matter less for that job, and you can buy a lot for your money. And, of course, China's PLAN has *a lot* of diesel electric subs -- 62 by my count.
16/n
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Led by then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Europe initially seemed to open its doors to refugees fleeing terrible war and violence in the Levant and North Africa. Merkel's "Wir Schaffen das", or "We can handle this" became the slogan of the time. However, almost...
[3/n]
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Fourthly, diesel electric subs are far cheaper. Even modern air independent propulsion systems are much cheaper than a nuclear reactor. A Virginia Class SSN costs the US Treasury $2.7 billion a pop, six times more than Germany's hugely capable Type-212 diesel electrics sub.
15/n
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There are 2.1mln people in Gaza, all of whom would qualify under
#ECHR
standards for refugee status in Europe. Israel's present policy is increasing pressure to allow Gazans to leave. Egypt, which borders Gaza, has already said it will send any Gazan refugees to Europe.
[6/n]
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We have consistently said that the EU energy crisis is not over. Last year, Europe had 6 months of Russian gas and little competition for LNG from China, which was in COVID lockdown. Neither is true of this year. There is no Russian gas, and China is back on the LNG market.
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Thirdly, advances in lithium battery tech, and the advent of air independent propulsion (which allows non-nuclear engines to provide propulsion without 'breathing' air, and independent of batteries) is extending the submersed range, speed and endurance of non-SSN subs.
14/n
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...the region's -- and world -- power dynamics. It's a story of increasing US weakness. How did this happen?
Historians will probably see the Ukraine conflict as the final end of the Unipolar world order. That war has crystallised and accelerated many existing trends...
[7/n]
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The new theme is that China's economy is imploding. We disagree. The Chinese economy doesn't work like ours. In fact, it rises and falls on opening and shutting the credit spigot through a range of programmes designed to stoke or dampen demand. We are now seeing new...
[1/n]
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In other words, if the conflict spirals out of control (or even continues for long), the EU might be seriously (perhaps fatally) damaged, yet Europe has no means of pressuring or influencing either side in the conflict, both of which might force Europe to choose a side.
[16/n]
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Why is there so little reporting of the >40 attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria since Oct 17th? Why are casualty numbers being hidden? Why is the US not responding to a declaration of war? And what does this mean for US power?
@philippilk
and
@SwordMercury
discuss. Links ⤵️⤵️
4
10
28
Any conceivable 🇨🇳🇺🇲 war would take place near China, over Taiwan, and/or the island-shoals in the South China Sea. The task of PLAN submarines would be to defend China's coastline, screen marine landing forces, and prevent any US Navy taskforce from playing a decisive role
8/n
1
2
28
Submarines can be broadly divided into two categories: nuclear and diesel-electric. As the name suggests, nuclear submarines use a nuclear reactor to generate electricity and propulsion. Diesel-electric subs use a diesel engine to charge batteries that provide propulsion.
2/n
1
0
28
...(iv) Western political dysfunction. Crucially, however, Ukraine has also tied down US attention and drained it of weaponry, money and diplomatic capital. This has created, and is creating, a power vacuum in other regions of strategic importance. Further, Russia, a...
[9/n]
1
6
28
...bilaterally, outside the OPEC framework, to essentially set the global price of oil. Yet another example is Russia seeking to integrate ever more with the
#BRI
and open new trading routes of its own. The final example is its deepening ties with China, Iran, and...
[12/n]
1
6
28
Joe Biden has called to triple tariffs on steel from China. The call was made as part of his election campaign, and China accounts for a small percentage of US steel use. So meaningless? No. It shows the direction of travel on Sino-American trade relations if still one way.
2
7
24
Migration has remained a big issue in the EU + UK, and is already fuelling populist parties like AfD in Germany. Given viscerally worsening living standards, another wave of 2015 levels would supercharge the process, lead to social unrest and even change the EU itself.
[9/n]
1
8
26
Europe's economy is weak. Germany is probably already in recession and is suffering show deindustrialisation. Other areas in Europe are likely to follow. Incumbents in Italy, Sweden, Slovakia, and Poland have lost elections. Governments are falling everywhere.
[8/n]
1
7
26