In @ForeignAffairs, I argue the Senate standoff over Defense Department nominations forces an overreliance on acting officials, politicizes the military promotions process, & threatens to undermine civilian control over the armed forces. (1/12) Link:

To counter these risks, politically appointed civilians must be willing to step in to take questions that will prevent military officers from being caught in partisan crossfire & help insulate them from partisan politics when called to testify. (7/7)

Even if the frequency of testimony by military officers has not changed, hearings have become politically charged settings. The enduring presence of officers at hearings raises the risk that uniformed personnel could be lured into partisan waters during routine testimony (6/7)

On the other hand, the persistence of these rates of participation by civilian & military witnesses in an era of growing polarization increases the risk that service members could find themselves dragged into partisan bickering over even seemingly uncontroversial matters (5/7)

Congress has consistently turned to civilian officials to testify on defense matters across presidential administrations, a pattern that delivers a reassuring degree of stability to civil-military relations by concentrating debates over defense among civilian policymakers. (4/7)

The expertise Congress chooses to draw upon in hearings can have important implications for the substance of national security choices, time horizons associated with alternative resourcing investments, and the public’s perceptions of the proper purveyors of defense policy (3/7)

We find that the share of civilian and military witnesses appearing before the House Armed Services Committee has remained remarkably stable, even when accounting for changes in party leadership & increasing patterns of divided government & partisan polarization in Congress (2/7)

When Congress conducts oversight over defense policy, whom does it call to testify? In @TXNatSecReview , @jblankshain, @DerekSReveron, & I present a new dataset of over 6,500 witness appearances between 1975 & 2016 to explore how Congress exercises control over the military (1/7)

How did foreign policy shape the U.S. election? Jeff Friedman and I have been crunching the numbers for @ForeignAffairs:

Delighted to share a new article in @ForeignAffairs by me and Jeff Friedman challenging the idea that presidential elections are all about "the economy, stupid." In 2024, as in the past, foreign policy is shaping the campaign - and vice versa:

In the next issue of @ForeignAffairs, I argue that crises can cross red lines and climb the escalation ladder, but leaders typically don’t stumble into inadvertent wars that they do not intend to fight. (1/11) https://t.co/zM7wBRKpBq

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Once again, congrats to @TeeAndersVolpe and @JaneVaynman on winning the 2023 Robert O. Keohane award. We enjoyed celebrating with you in Philly!

Can’t wait to spend the week annoying @mkguliford #APSA2024

🚨New (free to access) article in the summer issue @IntSecHarvard How does fatalism among leaders cause the outbreak of war? https://t.co/rgxNwbu1zV

I’m excited to share that “Credibility, Organizational Politics, and Crisis Decision Making” is now out at JCR! A quick 🧵 https://t.co/B5AFOBhToU

Today, A/USDP Ms. Amanda Dory and the rest of the Policy team said goodbye to Dr. Mike Horowitz as he steps down from his current position as Dep. Ass’t Sec. Def. for Force Development & Emerging Capabilities. In this role... 🧵

As tensions continue to mount, pundits are increasingly worried about security dilemmas emerging between the US and China. New in @World_Pol with @ryan_brutger and Kai Quek - we show both the 🇺🇸 and 🇨🇳 publics are prone to security dilemma thinking https://t.co/T6exNxxSFV

This remarkable photograph shows the then-oldest living ex-enslaved individual, Mrs. Sally Fickland, viewing the #EmancipationProclamation in the Freedom Train at Philadelphia, on September 17, 1947. #NationalArchives #Juneteenth

As we wind down the year @NavalWarCollege, I interviewed @SangerNYT about his new book that examines strategic competition among U.S., Russia, and PRC.