Having tactically traded through the 1998 Russian crisis and LTCM collapse, the dot-com bubble and crash, the 2007–09 financial crisis, the COVID shock, and everything since—I can’t stress this enough: The best countertrend setups don’t come from just buying dips. They come

Stanley Druckenmiller, one of the greatest macro investors of all time, arguably the GOAT, saying the quiet part out loud 🧠 Diversification is where conviction goes to die. All eggs in one basket, full accountability, ruthless monitoring. That’s how asymmetry is built.

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“History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain

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The stock market is the leading economic indicator, not the other way around.

'History doesn’t repeat itself. Man always does.' - Voltaire Events may change, but our patterns of behavior remain constant.

Institutional adoption doesn’t magically turn something “not speculative.” Speculation is about the return driver and the valuation anchor. If the expected return is primarily a function of future buyers paying more (flows/narrative/liquidity), it’s still speculation whether

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"You can't really be friends with anybody who has a hint of jealousy about anything that you're doing. Certainly about your success or you being celebrated. You cannot. You have to distance yourself or cut that thing off." - Oprah Jealousy is a toxin. Keep it away from you.

Tops are processes. Not events. You don’t identify them by prediction. You identify them by behavioral deterioration. It’s diagnostics— not clairvoyance.

Which has the most predictive power for investment returns? Drop your answer and reasoning below 👇🏼

“The big money in booms is always made first by the public – on paper. And it remains on paper.”   — Edwin Lefèvre Open profits are the markets money— until you take them.

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Valuation is a headwind. Multiple independent models are elevated. Historically, rich starting points have reduced forward return potential versus average; they don’t predict short-term direction. We frame it as return asymmetry risk—less upside-to-downside skew from here.

Valuation is a headwind. Multiple independent models are elevated. Historically, rich starting points have reduced forward return potential versus average; they don’t predict short-term direction. We frame it as return asymmetry risk—less upside-to-downside skew from here.

It’s never “different this time.” Technology evolves, liquidity cycles change, and new participants emerge, but the underlying laws of asymmetry — how gains and losses compound — remain constant. What varies is how investors collectively express the same recurring emotions of

Breadth is thinning as the S&P 500 grinds higher inside its trend channel, with momentum and participation not confirming fresh highs—classic late-leg signals—but without distribution on the major leadership charts yet.

In 2000, the S&P 500 had an elevated trailing P/E of 26, well above its long-term avg. of 14. For the next 11 years, the S&P 500 delivered zero returns! The current S&P 500 trailing P/E is 30 – even higher than 2000. History rhymes. For standardized performance visit our website.

Trend risk expands with valuation. As a stock’s valuation multiple (price-to-earnings, price-to-sales) rises, the risk of trend reversal increases, even if the price trend remains technically strong.

To have earned the S&P 500’s long-term annualized return of ~10% since 1928, investors had to tolerate drawdowns as deep as -50% or more, sometimes lasting years. That’s the price of admission.

asymmetric optimism: your upside lies ahead— not behind.

Gold has reached a speculative extreme — record short-gamma imbalance in GLD options (about 10 times normal), implied volatility at the 100th percentile, and demand for upside calls that is similar to May 2006, when gold rose 60% before falling 30%, which means the market is in a

Our investment strategy focuses on long-term value, not short-term price swings. Our Chairman & CEO Mike Wirth explains how disciplined investment drives long-term value.

With all this intelligence— Can we get a cure for tinnitus?