Michael Otsuka
@MikeOtsuka
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Professor of Philosophy, Rutgers. On UCU's national USS negotiating team 2021-22. Photo not up to date. Neither is yours, unless it's a live webcam image.
Joined December 2010
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Pinned Tweet
Index of my Twitter threads on USS and other topics👇, which I'll retweet when I update.
3
5
27
The high number of deaths of London bus drivers is of a piece with other evidence that prolonged exposure in enclosed spaces to someone infected w/ coronavirus is unsafe. 2 metre social distancing won't make buses, the tube, classrooms, or shared offices safe. 1/10
27
906
2K
👀Orwellian red-underlined command from the govt's latest HE guidance👇. Even if this is assessed as too risky, based on best evidence & analysis, we must pretend that everything is now as it was before the pandemic. Ignorance is strength. (
@ucu
)
93
646
1K
.
@UniversitiesUK
CEO
@AlistairJarvis
has a piece about the
#USS
dispute in today's Times. In the thread below, I zero in on a false claim he advances, and on which much rides.
@AlistairJarvis
-- I hope you will engage w/ us in the comments below. Link:
23
912
686
According to the recently released SAGE papers👇, keeping universities open plays a greater role in spreading Covid-19 infection -- ~0.3 (0.2-0.5) increase in R -- than any other activity, apart from keeping secondary schools open -- ~0.35 (0.2-0.5). 1/
22
407
590
🚨🚨🚨A vindication of
@ucu
's call for a moderately prudent 2022 valuation: Even on the excessively prudent assumptions of the 2020 valuation, as of 28 Feb 2022 it would cost only 25.6% (17.7% employer, 7.9% member, assuming 65:35 cost-sharing) to fund UUK's proposed cuts! 1/
9
302
540
What follows is an evidence-based correction to
@UniversitiesUK
's (even by its own standards) shameless misrepresentation of the costings of
@ucu
's proposal. First UUK's shameless distortion from yesterday's press release. UUK wrote: 1/
7
611
490
Jeremy Bentham has a new home👇in
@ucl
's
@uclstudentcent1
. But has be been re-housed against his will? Let's check. 1/
(Photo credit:
@ChrisShoreFRICS
)
47
218
449
As promised, a new blog post: "USS’s valuation rests on a large and demonstrable mistake: when corrected there is no deficit as at 31 March 2018 and no need for detrimental changes to benefits or contributions". 𝗣𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗿𝗲-𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝘁. 1/
8
750
435
.
@ucl
's outgoing & incoming heads have issued a statement👇that stands out for its acknowledgement of how bad things are in London, its responsibility to the wider community, & of what needs to be done. (
@SusanLiautaud
) 1/3
8
144
421
A thread on the impending, foreseeable
@UniversitiesUK
car crash: Cases have been surging since the re-opening of schools & the call to return to work in early September. 1/10
13
298
399
Jaw-dropping
@BBCRadio4
interview w VC of University of Manchester: surprised by rapidity of outbreaks!; claims the main problem was failure to sufficiently communicate to students the need to follow guidelines!
20
125
382
🚨UK longitudinal study of 201 individuals with
#LongCovid
reveals a high proportion are relatively young & without pre-existing health conditions. Also reveals "almost 70%…have impairment in one or more organs four months after initial symptoms". 1/4
6
356
364
🚨🚨🚨In a potential "exit strategy from the current
@USSpensions
dispute",
@UCUGlasgow
has reached agreement with
@UofGlasgow
management to jointly call on
@USSEmployers
@UniversitiesUK
to do the following 4 things👇: 1/7
5
148
358
.
@UniofOxford
prof Deborah Cameron notes👇a key respect in which small group teaching is a greater Covid risk than large lectures, casting doubt on
@Cambridge_Uni
's moving large lectures online while keeping small group teaching in person. (
@AlistairJarvis
@michelledonelan
) 1/
11
178
337
An important fact about this agreement is that it appears to remain entirely within the cost constraints of the revised November valuation. If that's right, it is important that this fact be communicated to members and... 1/
12
433
322
Numerous tweets from
@ucu
members saying they'll quit the union on account of this horrible motion. But this is one reason why Socialist Appeal & SWP push such motions: to alienate non-fanatics & drive them out of the union, making it easier for them to win votes & elections. 1/2
This is disturbing. I find it highly unlikely the majority of UCU members share the STW view of Ukraine conflict. Unrepresentative hard left activists hijacking the union agenda once again. I find this code abhorrent, is hard to remain in a union which would endorse it.
27
173
787
18
86
315
In his reply👇to an Open Letter,
@UniversitiesUK
@USSEmployers
CEO
@AlistairJarvis
writes:
"It is regrettable that a
@UCU
proposal was formally tabled at the JNC so late in the day..."
🧵documenting the impressive quantity of bad faith & mendacity packed into Jarvis's words. 1/
Reply from Alastair Jarvis
@UUKIntl
added to Open Letter. Gist - unsurprisingly, info that's already on record, most notably TP deficit seen to be too big. As
@MikeOtsuka
said earlier, April 1st changes are being implemented.
@ucu
0
2
9
9
188
304
🧵explaining what's so wrong with
@USSEmployers
VC Alistair Fitt's claim on
@BBCr4today
that "Modelling published by the
@USSpensions
trustee themselves shows that impact [of UUK's proposed pension cuts] is likely to be between 10% & 18% for the vast majority of members." 1/
4
228
287
It's alarming that the rate of coronavirus death among London bus drivers is 16 times the death rate of NHS workers. 3/10
5
163
266
In the thread below, I draw attention to a crucial aspect of the
@ucu
proposal linked here: 1/
6
353
257
In a significant and welcome development, LSE has just released the following statement re
#USS
: "We would urge UUK to work with UCU to revert to the earlier valuation of the pension scheme set out in September 2017 by USS."
Link to full statement:
5
196
262
This agreement between
@ucu
&
@USSEmployers
on
@USSpensions
is very good👇. It's highly significant that it has the unanimous support of
@UCU
's negotiators. 1/
3
98
257
.
@AlistairJarvis
you have consistently failed, in both today's Times and in previous
@UniversitiesUK
releases, to acknowledge the role of employer choices regarding risk in creating this mess. It is now time to come clean to members about this. 6/
3
148
244
I've just written a new blog posted called "Why I now strongly support the latest USS pension offer". (
@ucu
@UniversitiesUK
@JosephineCumbo
@sophie_inge
@RichardA
@RKWinvisibleman
@antbagshaw
@markmleach
@henryhtapper
)
35
254
237
Imagine that
@UniversitiesUK
were to cut our pay by 25%, but then say, hey, if you're closest to retirement, this is just a 1% reduction in your salary over a lifetime, so what's all the fuss about?
The modeller might show a small (say 1%) reduction in benefits overall for those closest to retirement, and around 25% for the member who is farthest away – a figure UCU has used.
3/8
17
3
6
6
94
242
🚨🚨🚨
@ImperialUCU
&
@imperialcollege
have issued a very welcome jointly agreed statement about the
@USSpensions
dispute.
The following two statements go farther in the direction of
@UCU
's perspective than any other
@USSEmployers
's to date👇.
1/4
3
83
234
Bristol removes itself from the 42% by changing its answer to Q 3a re risk level of the Sept valuation. When will
@UniversitiesUK
align itself with the will of the increasing majority of its employers and embrace
@ucu
call for return to Sept valuation?
6
175
230
A new blog: "How far USS has fallen from past parity with public sector pensions"👇1/2
9
163
224
Now that
@ucu
's Congress is back in person (it went online during Covid), union policy is set by about 300 of its 120,000 members who are prepared to spend all 3 days of the spring bank holiday weekend in a conference center somewhere in the UK.... 1/
The
@ucu
Congress
#ukraine
resolution was appalling, and wont reflect members' views.
But rather than (at least performatively) thinking of leaving, we may be better considering our lack of interest in internal democratic processes that causes this kind of situation.
#UCUrising
7
7
44
5
62
219
Article by
@josephinecumbo
: "Universities accused of misleading claims over UK staff pension reforms: Younger workers could lose up to £200,000 under benefits changes introduced in April, analysis shows" (
@ucu
@USSEmployers
@USSbriefs
@sussexucu
)
1
142
216
Chris Whitty: "If I as an individual increase my risk, I increase the risk to everybody around me and then everyone who is a contact of theirs.... So you cannot, in an epidemic, just take your own risk. Unfortunately, you're taking a risk on behalf of everybody else."
2
69
214
🚨🚨🚨A new blog: "A rebuttal of Alistair Jarvis’s reply to Jo Grady: Point by point responses to his objections to UCU’s proposals"
(
@ucu
@USSEmployers
@USSpensions
@DrJoGrady
@AlistairJarvis
@Barker4Kate
@NJSHardy
@JosephineCumbo
)
1
139
212
The ball is in the court of
@UniversitiesUK
employers. Others among the 42% can join with Unis of Oxford & Bristol in reconsidering their response & wholeheartedly embracing Sept level of risk. It is in THEIR power to shift the dial significantly enough.
4
168
211
👀Jaw-dropping that, in an open letter to staff dated the 16th of March,
@UniOfYork
VC repeats👇
@UniversitiesUK
@USSEmployers
's misrepresentation of the
@ucu
proposals, more than a month after we got UUK to correct the record. 1/
3
96
208
I've written to
@USSpensions
CEO Bill Galvin to object that this statement👇is both inaccurate & in breach of JNC confidentiality.
@Barker4Kate
"The
#USS
Trustee has also indicated that the required rate for previous benefits would likely be in excess of 40% of salary – even with the same level of covenant support employers have pledged under the package of reforms."
3/
3
0
1
1
66
197
Auger 'hot take': overall student debt repaid under Auger £7500 fee, £23k repayment threshold, 40 yr write off is roughly equal to status quo £9250, £25k threshold, 30 yr write off. But that comparable overall repayment is regressively redistributed from higher to lower earners.
3
101
191
It's odd that "everything possible" does not include a willingness of
@USSEmployers
to increase their pensions contributions from 21.1% to 23.7% in October, despite the fact they've already budgeted for this increase.
@UCU
NEW: UK university employers say universities "would do everything possible" to minimise the impact on students of a fresh round of industrial action by staff.
The comments come ahead of a mass union meeting today of sector workers to discuss industrial action over
#pension
cuts
3
2
7
1
57
190
Imagine that your employer cut your salary by 21% and described that as "remuneration that will build up more slowly in the future".
USS:“We understand the concerns of USS members faced with proposals for higher contributions or benefits that will build up more slowly in the future." (cont)
1
1
0
2
65
184
Andrew Marr on the
#USS
strike: '…a lot of these are people whose pensions wouldn’t have been that big in the first place, so this is a really big chunk of their pensions, and they’re suddenly not asked or negotiated with. They’re just told: “You’re losing all this money.”' 1/
5
197
182
Please also alert us when you experience technical issues in assessing the valuation.
We are experiencing technical issues with our website.
Today's agreement is also available at:
12
7
7
1
52
177
A new blog: "USS benefits should be partially restored in light of improved 31 March 2022 funding position" (
@ucu
@USSEmployers
@USSpensions
@USSbriefs
@JosephineCumbo
@TWilliamsTHE
@bethanstaton
@CHavergalTHE
) 1/2
2
101
180
Oxford VC sends email to staff saying the University now accepts the level of risk proposed in the September valuation! Text below. 1/
6
138
180
In a few days, USS members will suffer huge cuts to the future accrual of their pensions on account of the lazy, sloppy dismissals of very well paid VCs such as York's, who couldn't be bothered to get on top of the details. Unforgiveable.
1
66
179
Thanks to
@UniversitiesUK
@USSEmployers
's cuts, a
@USSpensions
for someone starting out in the pre-92 sector will be less than half the value of a TPS pension for someone starting out in the post-92 sector. (
@ucu
@USSbriefs
)
@MikeOtsuka
@BrianOSmith1967
@USSbriefs
@UofGlasgow
@IainBMcInnes1
@UofGMVLS
@USSpensions
Did some sums. Comparing U Glasgow to Abertay for a 30 yo lecturer starting today and retiring at senior lecturer. Salary scales are very close, and converted to 100% DB:
Glasgow Pension: £24,000; Lifetime Comp: ~£2.9M
Abertay Pension: £50,000; Lifetime Comp: ~£3.7M
1
16
24
3
117
173
A crucial question UUK must answer: my latest thoughts on the proposal going out to ballot. (
@ucu
@UniversitiesUK
@AlistairJarvis
@JosephineCumbo
@sophie_inge
@RichardA
@RKWinvisibleman
@antbagshaw
@markmleach
)
16
193
175
A majority of 51.1% of all
@ucu
members in
@USSpensions
institutions voted Yes to industrial action over pensions. (60.2% turnout * 84.9% who voted yes.)
1
48
170
👆WTF? How could you have been surprised, given that *exactly the same thing* happened in university after university in the US in August & early September. 2/
4
22
165
"
@UCU
did not put forward a formal proposal;"
.
@USSEmployers
, once again you're saying something demonstrably false👇.
@UCU
placed our proposals on the agenda of a formal JNC meeting on 13 August for discussion. Check item 3.2 of your JNC papers & then retract this tweet. 1/
4
103
164
Although the MAB has ended in failure, it was much more disruptive, & placed far more pressure on employers, than the many weeks of national strikes that
@UCU
has called since 2019. 1/4
5
32
164
🚨🚨🚨
@ucu
members please check your inbox for
@DrJoGrady
's email. Some further thoughts. It strikes me that UUK are determined to ignore and stall, to the point that it would not be possible to complete a consultation with employers until after five days of strikes. 1/
In the last hour I’ve written to UCU members involved in strike action tomorrow with an update about UUK’s misrepresentations of UCU’s pension proposals. The email outlines how to combat the misrepresentations if you see them or your employer echos them.
#OneOfUsAllOfUs
1
55
145
2
97
162
A VC has told their
@ucu
branch that
@USSEmployers
' cuts to benefits is the main reason for the dramatic reduction in the
@USSpensions
deficit. The graph below shows how false this claim is: the cuts had a minuscule effect on the reduction of the deficit.
Here’s USS’s funding ratio graphic now including 97% funded WITHOUT benefit cuts compared with 98% funded WITH benefit cuts
March 2020 was anomalous. But USS claim slashing benefits ‘put the scheme in a more robust position.’ 🧐
#USSMess
#OneOfUsAllOfUS
@USSBriefs
1
52
92
3
114
163
...they wish to convey the impression that their organisation is headed by someone with a background in PR and spin who thinks he can get away with treating us as if we're a bunch of idiots. 14/14
1
46
160
Sunday Times reports that the Chancellor recruited Oxford Prof Sunetra Gupta to try to convince the PM not to impose another lockdown in the autumn. She advocated letting the virus rip through population to achieve herd immunity in 3-6 months. 1/2
20
97
159
A new blog on "UUK's escalating misrepresentation of UCU’s proposals (Pt II)" (
@ucu
@USSEmployers
@DrJoGrady
@AlistairJarvis
@USSbriefs
@JosephineCumbo
@bethanstaton
@CHavergalTHE
) 1/
1
113
157
In
@ucu
's dispute letter to
@USSEmployers
VCs👇, we noted that, if the UUK cuts go through, a typical academic, aged 37, would experience a 35% cut in the guaranteed DB pension built up in future & the cut would remain at 23% if extra DC income was converted into DB pension. 1/3
3
115
157
Highly significant Glasgow VC statement, coming from a
@UniversitiesUK
-appointed
#USS
trustee, and former chair of the Employers Pension Forum (joint with branch UCU). Link here and comments below.
4
166
148
The University of Northumbria's 770 cases among their students during the past few days is 257 more than Taiwan has had during the entire history of the universe.
2
61
153
The problem with face to face teaching in small classrooms👇. 1/
4
96
152
🚨If university students aren't tested every 2-3 days, "colleges are very likely to fall prey to outbreaks that will place vulnerable people on campus & in the surrounding community at risk for serious illness and death." 1/
4
105
148
.
@ucl
has stood out during the pandemic for taking its public health responsibilities to the wider community seriously. They've led with their actions rather than waiting (in vain) for the government to provide cover by telling them to do what they know they ought to do. 3/3
5
34
150
Either VC support of
@USSpensions
cuts was based on
@UniversitiesUK
@USSEmployers
's false claims that "the impact will be a reduction of between 7% & 15% on future benefits for most" or "likely to be between 10% & 18% for the vast majority of members"... 1/
2
78
150
Rather, the Congress Business Committee should set an agenda that limits motions to policies that are actually relevant to a UK University and College Union. Setting foreign policy for the UK falls well beyond these limits. 11/
9
19
150
Who benefits most from
@BorisJohnson
's latest "reforms" to the funding of higher education.
In words (
@Wonkhe
analysis)👇. 1/2
2
65
149
Our employer's final offer, in negotiations between
@ucu
and
@UniversitiesUK
, is a 2% pay rise, 0.3% higher than their previous offer. That may not seem like much. But, hey, if your pay is as high as Dame Glynis Breakwell's, that's an extra £1404.
2
68
145
An excellent statement on
#USS
from Queen's College, Oxford. Note that Queens went against the University line in September by accepting the level of risk USS proposed then, rather than calling for a lower level. So it is not johnny-come-lately.
1
95
143
A new blog on
@USSEmployers
@UniversitiesUK
's serious misrepresentation of
@ucu
's proposals (
@DrJoGrady
@AlistairJarvis
@JosephineCumbo
@USSbriefs
@USSpensions
)
3
111
144
Rather than a self-appointed panel 'independent' experts,
@UniversitiesUK
&
@AlistairJarvis
should simply exercise greater transparency. Don't stamp so many of your and your actuary's papers 'confidential' & refuse to share them with your employees. 1/
1
116
143
A video of an overwhelming but unauthorised vote outside Oxford's Sheldonian to return to September level of risk, per
@ucu
proposal. Unfortunately, unlike the unauthorised submissions to the September consultation,
@UniversitiesUK
won't count these votes.
2
132
144
Arrogant and offensive.
Can you imagine having to negotiate with these truth twisters? 1/3
It is reasonable for us to conclude in headline terms - based on the ‘middle of the road’ personas developed for typical scheme members - that reductions in retirement benefits will be in the range of 10-18%.
2/
19
0
0
1
42
144
A nice THES piece on the role of social media in resisting
@UniversitiesUK
's attempt to control the
#USS
narrative.
2
123
139
Email from St Andrews Principal reads: "It is now very clear that the current valuation does not command the confidence of USS members at St Andrews, and for that reason we support the call for an independent assessment of the valuation and the scale of the USS deficit...." 1/
2
98
137
Tomorrow
@USSEmployers
,
@UniversitiesUK
, &
@AlistairJarvis
will blame
@ucu
members for the disruption to students. But the blame lies squarely with UUK for their stalling & misrepresentation, with the clear intention of rendering it impossible to settle this dispute. 6/6
1
70
140
My original Oxbridge blog--which I almost didn't bother writing, having posted a shorter FB version the day before which I thought had exhausted its interest--is now just shy of 30,000 views. So I'm re-linking for
#USS
members who haven't yet read it:
2
114
140
.
@UniversitiesUK
releases a statement in which they attempt to defend their controversial use of consultation responses to Q 3a regarding acceptable level of risk. My thoughts in tweets below. (
@JosephineCumbo
@AtheneDonald
@henryhtapper
@ucu
)
Link:
12
145
136
If a university in England with 10,000 students resumed in person teaching today, we can expect that 6 students would be Covid-19 infected, 4 of whom would be unaware of this fact. 1/8
5
93
133
Nobody is objecting to losing a day's worth of pay for a day one is on strike. What's being objected to is, e.g, losing 100% of pay for every further day one refrains from rescheduling the lecture you didn't deliver on the day you were on strike (& for which you weren't paid).
I’m staying neutral on USS but if you don’t work would it generally be usual or unusual to still get paid? Or does it depend?
7
0
3
4
17
136
Does
@UniversitiesUK
accept this proposal? If not, why not?
@AlistairJarvis
please engage with scheme members by answering, rather than avoiding, these questions. Like a
@UniversitiesUK
online consultation, I invite you to comment in the space below. 13/13
1
44
132
What happens when one applies the law of large numbers to small numbers.
10
24
135
1
140
131
I've recently learned that I've been elected to the
@UCU
national negotiating team over
@USSpensions
! 1/4
Results of the
#USS
negotiators just announced to the candidates! I'm very pleased that I've been re-elected alongside
@deepa_driver
,
@HershMarion
(negotiators), plus
@wkw_uk
and, new to the team,
@MikeOtsuka
(reserves). 1/
5
5
96
11
5
135
If the well-being of students was truly
@UniversitiesUK
employers' "1st priority"👇, they wouldn't have re-opened halls of residence to nearly full capacity, while also failing to provide the frequent testing of all needed to prevent outbreaks & lockdowns.
3
48
129
To tweet in a manner that
@UniversitiesUK
might be able to relate to, given your bizarre multiple nocturnal emissions all over yesterday's twitter, I'll repeat one more time: 'A RETURN TO THE RISK LEVEL USS PROPOSED IN SEPTEMBER 2017'. 8/
3
31
130
Brief exposures of <2 metres, plus prolonged exposure to the same air that passengers breath, were sufficient to give rise to a high rate of infection. This casts doubt on the efficacy of a policy of 2 metre social distancing on public transport. 8/10
2
38
122
Indefensible on the part of
@USSEmployers
@UniversitiesUK
&
@AlistairJarvis
. The double standard (consulting on their own proposal w/o
@USSpensions
confirmation of costing of 0.2%) & misinformation are astonishing. VC's ought to be upset by their poor representation.
Three working days until strike action begins over
#USS
, and have
@UniversitiesUK
launched a consultation with employers on
@UCU
's proposal for a resolution yet? No. No, they haven't. Indefensible,
@AlistairJarvis
.
#USSmess
4
129
234
1
62
128
These remain my latest (slightly updated) thoughts on the UUK offer. I'm now on a Twitter contribution holiday, where I hope to remain until there are any new developments w/ the offer. Thanks for the many expressions of kindness from strangers recently!
5
34
125
There should also be a means for the union membership as a whole to overturn motions passed by the 300 unrepresentative Congress delegates. E.g., if 5% of members register their wish online to UCU, then the motion should go to an online vote of the membership as a whole. 12/12
6
12
125
In this superb FT article, Martin Wolf uses the folly of the
@USSpensions
valuation to explain what's wrong with the regulation of DB pensions in the UK. He draws on the work of
@UCU
JNC member
@wkw_uk
to demonstrate this.
2
89
126
First, here's the other evidence, from US CDC papers about a restaurant & a call centre & further studies involving a church, indoor sporting event, etc. 2/10
1
55
119
👀FOI request from
@JohnRalfe1
reveals that
@USSpensions
currently has a full state guarantee -- which is, however, apparently contingent on 4
@officestudents
employees remaining active members.
7
47
124
.
@UniversitiesUK
could have accepted the level of risk
#USS
was willing to propose in Feb/Mar & Sept. And you can NOW accept
@ucu
's proposal to join w/ them in making an appeal, in the strongest terms, to
#USS
to revert to the level of risk proposed in the Sept valuation. 12/
2
56
123
A test of whether
@UniversitiesUK
is a corporate entity of its word. This is "just as soon as there is a break in the ACAS talks". So we will be receiving UUK's answers to
@AtheneDonald
's questions any minute now, right?
3
76
119
Given the relatively high risk of another lockdown in Jan, Feb, or March, no university student should be required to return to campus after Christmas. They should all have the opportunity to take courses remotely, from their family (or other non-university) home.
4
22
121
A new blog: "USS could lower contributions and/or increase benefits now: (i) A new valuation would not be necessary; (ii) 2020 valuation assumptions and funding principles could justify such changes in light of post-valuation experience" 1/3
1
72
120
Some comments on
@AlistairJarvis
's response to
@AtheneDonald
's letter. See embedded tweet for Jarvis's response. See my comments in the thread below.
Reply sent by
@AlistairJarvis
yesterday afternoon to my original letter now on
@ChurchillCol
website
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So we'll need much more than 2 metre social distancing to make indoor spaces where we spend prolonged periods of time safe. This applies to public transport, workplaces, classrooms, restaurants, bars, cinemas & places of worship. 10/10
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Long read piece in NYT on
@UniversitiesUK
handling of Covid-19 is justifiably scathing. Opening paragraphs👇. 1/
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Re the linked offer, I'm sceptical regarding the significance of the following: "This will require the status quo both in terms of contributions into USS and current pension benefits, until at least April 2019." 1/
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It will be possible to rectify the losses to school children & university students if we shift to online teaching this winter. But it we let the variant run out of control, it won't be possible to resurrect the dead.
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