Despite the SPX overwhelmingly being up the day, 4 out of the last 5 years saw the VIX spike up on the day after Christmas.

Looks like a possible tweezer top on the 15 minute, picked up some puts for a scalp as TT has worked out reliably lately. Pulling back to the cyan dashed line this afternoon would make sense if Friday is going to be a faceripper.

Implied Volatility on SPY puts is in the single digits. There is no fear left in this market. I'm getting that gut feeling again.

Someone wanna show Lutnick this chart. If wages kept up with GDP we wouldn't be in the mess we are in with the middle class disappearing. Reagan's deregulation blew it wide, but the divergence started with the last inflation crisis. So no Nutnick, people aren't earning 4.3% more

If you think the CPI data was manipulated, so was today’s GDP report. Strip out government, sliding imports and the sharp drawdown in the personal savings rate in support of consumption (in the face of flat personal disposable income growth), and guess what? Real GDP growth was

SKEW is screaming, $VIX is whispering. That divergence never lasts. We’re back at the top of the SKEW range, the same zone that marked distribution in 2021 and again in 2022. Every time SKEW lived up here, risk didn’t go away; it got repriced. This is what quiet hedging looks

IWM looks weak here. I'm probably going to target it with puts for next week tomorrow.

Majority of 1/2/26 Puts on SPY have volume outpacing OI today all the way down to 667. Meanwhile the corresponding calls have volume still lower than OI. We may be getting a repeat of last December.

DeMark 13 Sell signal and RSI over 70 with Stochastic at 100. If you want to see 700 before year end you want a pullback here to cool things off.

Small caps diverging from the S&P has led to the last few trend shifts to the downside. Today could be nothing, or it could be everything. Caution is warranted here.

So let me get this straight, they expect us to believe that GDP is surging while Durable Goods orders are plummeting and employment is slowing?

There has been no time in S&P 500 history, has it ran more than 30% before pulling back to the 200 Weekly Moving Average. Most recent steep pull backs was Covid Crash, where prices was 23% above the 200WMA. Post Covid, 25%. Tariffs 22%. Current S&P is 27% above the 200WMA. $SPY

Here it comes

I bought NFLX and AAPL calls last Friday because I thought they could out perform with any rally. Literally the only two megacap tech names that are red today. Is this this the market throwing a fuck you at me personally?

Going into the close I am looking for signs of a pullback tomorrow. If we do get a pullback tomorrow I will use that to get long.

Dumped my calls, this feels like a bull trap.

The VIX is with in spitting distance of its lowest point in 2025. That prior low was made on August 28th. The next two sessions after that were not great for the SPX. Do we get there today and does history repeat itself?

We have been stuck on this blue line for 2 months now. Pick a damn direction!

We wicked up to hit 2.1%, which is an insane move since it took 10 sessions to get from the first breach of 1.95% to 2% and now it literally took a single session to double that move at levels that haven’t been seen since 20 years ago. Ignore this at your own peril.