MetaCritic Capital
@MetacriticCap
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God hates wrong scales. Doing my part into making Google stock a bit more fairly valued. Looking for opportunities in Philadelphia...
The metaverse
Joined February 2022
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Pinned Tweet
I am starting to think $ZM story has something to do with them growing 360% and not with the fact that interest rates were at 0.
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@chrisalbon
Identifying a distinct style in ChatGPT's prose is an interesting observation. This style, often marked by a specific tone and structure, could be named to reflect its unique characteristics. Considering its origins and qualities, a term like "GPT Prose" or "AI Eloquence" might…
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@dylan522p
Lol. I thought they were retraining a bit fine-tuning. They are just adding instructions in front of your prompts lolololol
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Obvious in hindsight thesis available on the market right now.
$AMZN: They spend 60B in R&D and they rent fucking CPUs and sell toilet paper. You don't know what Jassy can do if he wants to show margins. OBVIOUS IN HINDSIGHT!
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In a year where the average PE fund is up 3% YTD, do not forget: private equity is just leveraged small cap value
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@patrick_oshag
Edison showing electricity at the 1893 world's fair, without a doubt. What could be more revolutionary than electricity?
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@ByrneHobart
No one cites poor Einstein anymore. Sometimes your work is so good it becomes common knowledge
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When making a $ADBE DCF, be aware that the cash flow won't return to you, the shareholder, but rather used to make great M&A like Marketo, Magento and Figma.
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Why are we selling Meta because $SNAP can't forecast their own business?
They already showed they don't know anything about their company. $FB
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Holy shit. Tesla has no valuation support whatsoever.
At current 687B market cap it's at 49x 2023 FCF (who's paying that kind of multiple on 2023 FCF?) or 37x 2023 earnings $TSLA $TSLAQ
Who has money on the sidelines to buy it as it drops?
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Holy shit.
Bridgewater has a $1B short position against $ASML.
Disclaimer: I'm not smarter than Bridgewater.
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There are like 50 car makers around of the world, many of them that make revenues in the hundreds of billions of dollars.
none of them believes in FSD and have tried to license it.
But Josh, 27yo $TSLA bull real estate realtor from Cincinnati believes FSD is real
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Why owning...
- $MU if you can own $LRCX at a slightly higher multiple
- $FB if you can own $GOOGL at a slightly higher multiple
- $PYPL if you can own $V at a slightly higher multiple
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@Sancto
@chrisalbon
Certainly! Naming the distinct prose style of ChatGPT can be quite creative. Here are some suggestions:
1. **AutoScript**: Emphasizing the automated nature of the writing.
2. **Model Monologue**: Highlighting the monologic style often employed.
3. **Neural Narrative**: A nod to…
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If $SNAP is worth $13B, can $META shareholders finally admit that WhatsApp, that makes a fraction of Snap revenues, was an expensive acquisition at $18B in 2014?
Think about the opportunity cost of that money and how much WhatsApp burned since then.
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One day in 2032, after all the hype, people will have concluded that $TSLA has always been an automaker.
Just because you make the engine electric, this doesn't change the economics of an industry. $TSLAQ
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$AMZN should buy $SPOT.
-Put Audible under Ek's leadership
-Connect Spotify with to allow for better ads
-Shut down Prime Music, offer Spotify instead
-Steal a big Google customer. Make Kurian cry
-Video podcast optionality to increase the video footprint
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Myself preparing to tell my PM that perhaps, only perhaps, we should own less MSFT
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How hard can it be to leave your fund at good terms, give your form employer a bit of equity at your new firm, ask them for a bit of capital, and their endorsement????
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$GOOGL is starting to make the first dollars in revenue of its 4th act: Waymo.
Google has a 1.5M LLM, Google isn't GPU-poor, Google has a terrific AI bench, Google's revenue is growing double-digits regardless of the attack by Microsoft and OAI
Today we could say is a…
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@moskov
Someone that makes a rocket that lands and a car that drives itself (although poorly) is too smart not to know statistics. He's joking around or creating a reason not to buy it, or both.
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Companies that could IPO into the mania with terrific valuations.
- Databricks
- Anthropic
- CoreWeave
- Cohere
- Grob
- HuggingFace
- PineCone
- Mistral
- Scale
- Character
- Stability
- X + xAI
Reddit is a good start, but we can get even dumb. For whatever reason people…
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@jasonfurman
Professor, it's my impression and the general public impression that universities like Harvard punishes speech quite harshly when it's against minorities the mainstream liberal crowd wants to defend. Do you understand that the public don't think it's plausible that if people were…
At Harvard, "fatphobia" constitutes violence.
But "globalize the intifada" requires context.
WATCH:
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If everything goes behind glass, This has to be bullish $AMZN, right?
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@buccocapital
It's my experience that jobs that teach you valuable skills are also those that pay you more.
Perhaps the best learners are scarce.
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Buffett is a funny man.
He claims to have no ability to predict FX but he just crushed it with the Yen bond + trading houses trade.
Yes old man, sit there. We'll all pretend you didn't knew the Yen was in a 30 high. $BRK
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@buccocapital
Classic situation where fundamentals deteriorate with improving financials, because the company is overearning and consuming the entirety of consumer surplus.
This is particularly acute in tech, where consumer surplus is usually subsidized for a decade by venture capitalists
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@BucknSF
Sales. I'd be impressed by how small are the deals that a sales rep work.
Software is eating the world and sales reps are eating software.
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"The legendary investors Li Lu and Monish Pabrai" $BABA
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In just one year, Google is half-way there, they already cut AI costs by 5x.
$GOOGL can't stop winning.
@sundarpichai
can't stop being a war CEO. Times are changing.
Get in losers, the Alphabet Rocketship is about to take-off.
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$TSLA ranks 73 worldwide in Research and Development.
According to bulls, it's the best spent dollars in the industry, achieving many technological breakthroughs even though the company spends less than STLA, TM, VW and Nissan.
Makes sense? $TSLAQ
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@dalibali2
There are multiple instances of Teams and Outlook in my desktop. I ignore because it's in an all time high
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@buccocapital
The more he pushes the metaverse, the more he shows he isn't convinced that Facebook and Instagram have high perpetuity value.
Instead of working hard to extend these cash flows and putting a brave face saying it's all fine, he makes obvious he doesn't believe. Why should we?
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What Americans don't understand. No one other than them uses iMessage.
Right now, the Russian coup is being done through Telegram. The Brazilian coup was planned through WhatsApp. The Afghanistan coup, WhatsApp.
Believe me, there's value in these apps. $META
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@quantian1
Tb fair, the TARP passed with more votes from democrats than Republicans. Obama had a meeting in the White House with President Bush and Senator McCain where they decided the details and the support for the bill.
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@RichardHanania
Europe, particularly France, particularly Paris, isn't poor!!! El Salvador is poor.
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@ganeumann
Afaik, there are no people that work at the nonprofit. All there is is a nonprofit that owns a for profit.
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In the wake of the Mexican airport debacle, I've made a cheat list of Countries in latin america you should avoid investing.
Mexico
Brazil
Argentina
Colombia
Chile
Uruguay
Paraguay
Costa Rica
Venezuela
Panama
El Salvador
France
Ecuador
Honduras
Peru
Bolivia
Dominican…
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Dumb question
Why are $V $MA considered a duopoly when clearly Amex and Discover are accepted everywhere?
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To put in another way the insanity of this PT: $MSFT Office segment makes $64B in revenues. There are more than 1.2B users, including 270M Teams MAUs.
Doing video/phone/chat alone ALONE, according to Ark $ZM would hit 70B under their bullish assumptions.
Our Zoom open-source model is now available on GitHub:
You can read about our thesis and assumptions in our blog post:
Our base case suggests Zoom’s share price could reach $1,500 by 2026.
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@quantian1
Apparently he prefers to face global competition from programmers from Romenia to India instead of having a captive addressable market that will only grow this century.
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The way some people talk about one would think $MSFT is trading at 50x Earnings.
I get it, 30x isn't cheap, but what is you plan? To short the greatest company on earth growing teens their EPS in expectations of what? Trading at 25x? Comm'on!
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THE OUTSIDERS PORTFOLIO
I created this hypothetical portfolio of companies the CEOs mention the book during calls listed on the BamSEC over the last 5 years. I plan to update you periodically on this.
My hypothesis they will outperform.
$RICK $PAR $CSTR $CSV $ZD $UI $COIN $PH
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$MSFT is launching their LLM-powered Bing (incredible the execution of this company, they're never late to a hype)
This is further gas to $GOOGL AI worries and it seems we're going fast to a resolution.
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The stages of grief of a $GOOGL narrative-driven investor
Let's go, baby. Let the AI-worries sell-off begin!
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ZENDESK BOARD OF DIRECTORS
It has become clear that Zendesk $ZEN has stolen the company from shareholders, lead by CEO and Chairman
@mikkelsvane
.
Let's see who are the people that approved this deal (but refused to sell at $130) and what other companies they serve on BOD.
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@buccocapital
I disagree with this one, Bucco. Inefficiencies shouldn't be applauded or protected. If bigger companies can better compete, so be it.
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$BRK: The GOAT is ready for his last dance, motherfucker! Do you think he'll drop the ball now? He'll die on the day BRK hits a new ATH (hopefully above 1M)and outperforms the S&P 500 on every possible window.
This psyco has traded the 50s and 70s. Obvious in hindsight!
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Doing data entry through the 10-Ks is a non-automatable job. Not only it's very therapeutic, it's an indispensable way to understand a company.
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Professor Mauboussin recommends to write a pre-morten before making a decision, therefore you know how things could go wrong.
"HOW COULD ONE LOSE MONEY INVESTING IN $META"
Therefore, I wrote a pre-morten for what a failed investment in Meta would be!
Time for a thread 🍵
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AI STARTUPS
-They produce no silicon, it's merchant's
-They make no framework, it's all Meta's PyTorch
-They have little industry secrets, it's all published in peer-reviewed publications
-They have no data, it's all widely buyable or it's public data
- They have no distribution
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In 2020, $TSLA was granted 181 parents (couldn't find the 2021 data).
Toyota, on the other hand, was granted 2753 patents.
I know patents are fugazi. But anyway I look at, it's hard to gain confidence in Tesla's technology acumen. $TSLAQ
70th R&D budget, low # patents...
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Outside from distressed stuff like Carvana, $OPEN is the only stock I know that could be a 20-bagger in half a decade.
I miss the times when I thought that 10-baggers were abundants. It was so much better to be that naive.
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I honestly don't understand $GOOGL skepticism with GenAI. It has been 15 months since ChatGPT launch and they have hundreds of millions of MAUs, many of them high value users.
If we're not seeing GenAI take its toll into Google today, when are we going to see signs???
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Tbh, it feels greedy and reckless for $AAPL to push their ad business so hard after screwing $META & Co.
I know they must feel greatly confident on their position with regulators, but is it worth the hassle with regulators to chase $5 or $10B more in sales?
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Image being rich as
@DavidSacks
and feeling the need to suck EM as hard as he does.
A prime example of someone that can't call enough on his wealth and needs to please someone richer to have deal flow and belonging. $TWTR $ELONQ
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I need extreme high quality 12% IRR long ideas.
If it's uncorrelated with my portfolio, better
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PE Multiples 24 months forward:
Tesla: 39x
Stellantis: 3x
Toyota: 8.6x
Ford: 5.6x
General Motors: 5.1x
----
Alphabet: 14x
Apple: 20x
S&P 500: 17x
S&P 500 tech (XLK): 21x
Doesn't matter how you look at it, there's no valuation support $TSLA $TSLAQ
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We NEVER NEVER acknowledge even the tiniest probability that there's no business case and consumer demand for AR/VR.
The Quest 2 was touted as the MVP for many years. People buy and don't use it
The idea that the smartphone is the ultimate formfactor terrifies the Valley. $META
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$GOOGL: Cloud doesn't make a profit, has negative NPV on current valuation. Has 140k employees, lots of fat for Ruthless to cut if she wants. Huge margin of safety. Waymo optionality.
OBVIOUS IN HINDSIGHT!
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This
@matt_levine
excerpt from today demonstrates two adages of investing
1- Soros' "buy then investigate"
2- The reasons to make an investment are always obvious. You spend time working on the name to discover unknown reasons to not buy it.
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My girlfriend is a Phd student in CS doing research in LLMs. I still struggle to convince her to rely on LLMs for information.
I have STRONG conviction we're not anywhere near a 25% drop in search queries in the next 2 years. $GOOGL $IT
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$MSTR (short): The Street knows his magic numbers: $32k is when he goes negative and $22k when he's wiped.
There's no fucking way that in a 5y horizon Bitcoin won't wipe Saylor, specially given he's one of the biggest whales.
I have seen this movie before
OBVIOUS IN HINDSIGHT!
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The man died in an all time high. An incredible steward of other people's money.
RIP
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@Noahpinion
Bernie clearly showing he's way better than expectations, despite his terrible political views
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@ProfEricTalley
I don't understand. The requirement for the job is to make $2m, change the rules so that calling for the genocide of Jews is against the Penn code of conduct, and enjoy the prestige? Seems pretty easy to me.
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$NFLX rallying 6% while groing 13% and trading ay 30x is a great example of
@IdleLightkeeper
evergreen tweet
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$CRM We have a new CFO and a new CEO, and they are fully committed to those fucking operating margins.
First principles thinking: If Salesforce can't have 30% margins, all SaaS is a zero.
Lower multiple than Oracle. OBVIOUS IN HINDSIGHT!
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How can a company give a 10y guidance of 50% CAGR in shipments and when asked about the 10y outlook for a key input, make a joke about he'll be happy if the world still exists by then? $TSLAQ
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$ATVI Two of the best CEOs ever have tons of money here.
Brad Smith made Microsoft the only nice big tech, of course he'll close! Sen. Josh Hawley wrote a book called 'Tyranny of big tech" and doesn't mention MSFT once!
Buffet is merge arbing! Big asymmetry...
OB IN HINDSIGHT!
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"He heard crystal clear what investors wanted, and he absolutely does not care, and he set up the whole company around not caring about what investors wanted, and that worked out very well for investors! Until, maybe, it didn’t." -
@matt_levine
$META
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@Rebrand_As_Y
It's almost as if paying CEOs with way out of money call options create bad incentives!!
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@mytldr
I am aware, is just a stylistic device to be funny, sir.
Just making the point there's lots of other bets hidden on their IS that they can cut whenever they want.
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Investing Podcasts that are fun (but not openly stupid, so no all-in, please)?
Also, any suggestions about single stock idea podcast?
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Crazy that Eric decided to jump infront of the bullet even before The Information discovered what happened
Sam Altman is a hero of mine. He built a company from nothing to $90 Billion in value, and changed our collective world forever. I can't wait to see what he does next. I, and billions of people, will benefit from his future work- it's going to be simply incredible. Thank you…
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@molly0xFFF
Molly. How does Wikipedia build such big decentralized organization without a token to coordinate people? Isn't that weird? Web3 solves this. /s
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@SaturdayOnCouch
@JosephPolitano
It's like 10% of the DoD budget or 0.3% of GDP to keep the Russians at bay
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@TechBroDrip
The fact that a CEO of a profitless $18B mid cap software shitco has a personal driver is a fucking 🚩🚩🚩 for everyone trusting him as a steward of capital
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One misunderstood aspect of " $ORCL is losing share in database" story is that $SNOW $MDB $AMZN and whatever aren't just selling software, they're selling you computation and storage too, while Oracle legacy business is just software and you needed to go out and procure the…
Just realized $ORCL's cloud database services ARR is at $1.9B, up 34%, which is almost 1.5x the size of $MDB Atlas, and they're growing at the same rate. Quite surprised!
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@TheStalwart
Zoom is omnipresent, but it's in secular decline (Zoom video, at least). Valuation is super duper dependent on perpetual growth. It's crazy, but markets prefer a smaller company where they can believe it'll be bigger in the future than a large company where they are sure it will…
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