Matt Hunter
@Matt_SaberSim
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Founder, CPO @SaberSim
Portland, OR
Joined September 2016
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Ok, time to talk about contest sims.
You’ll see a lot of sites offering sims in the coming months. Tread carefully. It’s easy to write code for a basic contest sim, but a basic contest sim is pretty useless.
Here are the most important considerations for a contest sim product:
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Extremely excited about the latest
@SaberSim
update:
- Live game sims and projections, accounting for player performance so far and game context
- Live updating ownership projections and fields for each our 13 contest types
- Contest sims that utilize both the above for late swap
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wait until the "sims aren't fast enough for NBA DFS" people see that you can build 5,000 lineups, sim them against a separate projected field 100k times, and update your entries CSV in about 60 seconds
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When I built the new set of tools for
@SaberSim
last year, my goal was to create a product that was easy to use for beginners but still powerful for pros who want to take advantage of our unique data. I also pride myself on the community we’ve created to help all our users
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when i created
@SaberSim
six years ago i did not think that i would be building tools for gambling on professional gamers playing soccer with race cars but here we are i guess
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thanks to mike malone for not pulling Jokic early, and thanks to
@SaberSim
for making it way too easy to build and enter winning lineups on mobile in minutes
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as you can tell it was a great show! thanks for having me on
@peteroverzet
@BrianHooper__
alright, *one* more lolz ep about sims before
@BrianHooper__
& i start encouraging more of these itunes reviews
chatting w/ sim og
@Matt_SaberSim
:
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decided to experiment playing high stakes NFL showdowns. it's going well so far!
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It is just so damn fun to work at
@SaberSim
. Every huge update or release is followed by immediate attention to the next innovation or improvement, usually multiple at a time.
Cannot wait to show you all what we have in store.
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I’d encourage anyone who is looking for help building DFS lineups to start a trial and join our community. You can always always hit me up with questions and I’m happy to help out
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Yesterday, I released what is possibly the most impactful update I've ever made to the
@SaberSim
lineup builder. It won't get much recognition, but I am really really excited about it and I honestly think it's groundbreaking. Talked about it here
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Don't make the mistake of thinking you need to spend all day and night working to be profitable in NBA DFS. My overall advice for this season:
1. Create an efficient and consistent process that minimizes the chance of mistakes.
2. Use the best available tools so you have as high
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ok
@BrianHooper__
@peteroverzet
you asked, we're delivering. putting up my champion
@W1lPatterson
against any willing sim bro challenger
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Every Thursday afternoon, we have a
@SaberSim
company meeting to update everyone on the cool shit we’re building. I am increasingly just absolutely blown away by how far ahead we are in the DFS software game. Both existing tools and upcoming ones…
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Gotta love a 45k swing from a garbage rebound on the last shot of the game. NBA is back!
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nbd but we just casually added an option to set a minimum or maximum *product* ownership to your lineups on
@SaberSim
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This is such a great technical deep dive from
@W1lPatterson
into our newly revamped play-by-play NFL sims
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We started a very cool podcast last week called Behind The Sims. It's an authentic unedited recording of our actual conversations
@SaberSim
as we problem solve tough and interesting DFS questions. Here's the Spotify link but we're on YouTube and Apple also
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Pushed an enormous update to
@SaberSim
today that I'm very proud of:
1) Changed our correlation metric to look at upside correlation, i.e. how each player's upside performances affect the rest of the team/game.
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Yes, we really did build an F1 simulator and optimizer in 3 days
Playing F1
#DFS
on
@DraftKings
but don't know where to start with building lineups?
@SaberSim
now has F1 simulations up on our app.
These aren't just projections.
I recently interviewed with
@Matt_SaberSim
about how we built these robust racing sims:
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Wil has been working on an MMA sim for months, outside of his day-to-day work at
@SaberSim
. He is extremely deserving of this and I’m pumped that our users (including me) can now use these sims
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THREAD: Last month, I released an update to
@SaberSim
that I've been working on for a long time. I'm really proud of the update, and it takes a very different approach to building DFS Lineups than any other tool in the space. I want to talk about why that approach is so important
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I don’t tout my own product all that much on here (I really should more), but my god the late swap/entry editor on
@SaberSim
is so goddamn good. Just ran a late swap and updated my entries on mobile and it took about 60 seconds.
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gotta say, it's quite nice to be able to build 5000 lineups on a huge NBA slate in 10 seconds
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Yesterday, we released an update
@SaberSim
that extends the filtering and lineup management tools from last week. You can now more easily switch between your selected lineups and the rest of the lineups in your pool, as well as view those you have unchecked.
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@d0wnsideofme
Jesse duping with one other person in a 67 man is just luck lol. your lineup was duped like 200 times in the flagship, more than the first place one was
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If you’re hesitant to play NBA DFS today without computer access, you shouldn’t be (if you have
@SaberSim
). It’s absurdly easy to late swap on mobile — takes me ~60 secs.
Here’s a demo of the entry editor on mobile:
And late swap:
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It’s just wild that so many people still think sims are incompatible with an optimizer/rules/projections process.
You can literally do everything about your process the exact same, and use sims purely for an additional set of metrics to incorporate as you see fit.
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Sims are the next wave of DFS, but every sim is not created equal. I think we have the best sim product at
@SaberSim
and it's not close. But you don't have to take my word for it. Start a 5-day absolutely free trial and see for yourself.
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the sims continue to be very good
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If you play MMA DFS, it is honestly worth buying the
@SaberSim
Pro subscription for the sole reason of watching the latest video with
@W1lPatterson
and
@JordanMChand
. Really fantastic insights on lineup building, dupe avoidance, MMA research, and general DFS theory.
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Josh Allen kneeldowns at the end cost me the double bink, but still not a bad Sunday
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good morning, just a reminder that player performance in DFS, especially MLB batters, is not even close to normally distributed
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Forgot to reserve early slate yesterday and got literally the last 18 entries in the contest. Made em count though!
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If the Rays lose this game, it’s because the Dodgers are an insanely good team, and baseball is super random, not because a manager made a decision that at most changed the win expectancy by 1%
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@SaberSim
I honestly think this might be our most groundbreaking update ever. You can literally optimize your late swaps for the exact lineups that your opponents are playing and the exact live distributions of your lineups in minutes.
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Well this one is just embarrassing but I feel like I have to tweet it to keep the heater going
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1. Accurate game sims
At the core of contest sims are game sims. A good contest sim must be able to accurately simulate each player’s true range of outcomes and their relationship with other players in the game. Without this, the entire foundation of the sim breaks down.
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Sad times when you miss out on the flagship contest and would have binked it by 20 points. Thanks for building me the stone cold nuts
@SaberSim
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@SaberSim
TLDR: I figured out a way to utilize our simulations to get way more diversification in lineup builds without sacrificing any EV.
Basically, diversification without the noise, and without needing arbitrary heuristics. I think it's amazing and you should too.
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@ShipMyMoneyDFS
lol adam, it sucks that you missed your flight but this was definitely on you. they always close the gate 15 min ahead of time and it's your responsibility to get there on time. imo, pretty silly to blame the airline for not reminding you
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Someone asked me recently what I thought was the most powerful feature of
@SaberSim
. Without a doubt it’s Smart Diversity. Using actual sims of the games to create lineups means you incorporate upside and correlation organically, and that’s how I got this lineup in my build
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Hot take: sports are way more fun when the outcomes are hard to predict. Shorter series are more fun than longer ones.
Also, unpredictable is not the same thing as random. Teams that perform better deserve to win, even if the performances aren’t sustainable.
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I am honestly just blown away by how incredible the
@SaberSim
team is. It would be one thing to focus on just the product, or just the sims/models, or just the content and education, but we are innovating in so many different ways across all aspects of the business.
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@TheRealRikkiDee
@Awesemo
Idk he might be right, the idea of using sims for DFS was a completely foreign concept before nerdytenor introduced them
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There's no magic button to rake in money, but I think last night is a good example of why optimizing by projection is not the best way to play DFS anymore. You need tools that will incorporate upside and correlation — not just avg correlation but correlation in ceiling games
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Would be cool if I won the
@YahooFantasy
final, but I can't help but cheer for MoistFarts to take it down
#YahooFantasyChamps
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The best way to do this is through play-by-play sims (what we do at
@SaberSim
).
Unlike "top down" sims, which scaffold distributions around mean projections, a “bottom up” approach is the only real way to ensure accurate sims at the game
and player level.
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This goes way beyond building a normal distribution from a mean and standard deviation with some correlation sprinkled in. Each sim should reflect actual real-life outcomes, especially for top-heavy tournaments where outlier outcomes are the main path to success.
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Eric is one of the smartest people I know (and has probably taken your money in DFS). Very cool to see his passion project come to fruition. Might have to get into
@CFL
now
Officially announcing the release of ET Stats Football!!
👉
ETS is a hub for all things CFL, including advanced stats, simulations, & much, much more.
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hi
@DraftKings
can you please bring back DFS for Oregon so I don't have to deal with this shit from
@FanDuel_Support
anymore? thanks
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my insane heater continues with another bink this morning as my newborn slept through the night!
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Both of these changes are immediate and significant EV gains for users.
And honestly I think they are pretty groundbreaking. No other public DFS tool is doing anything close to this. I don't like to brag about our work much but I'm too excited about these updates.
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These details may not sound like a big deal, but they are crucial to setting up a strong and sustainable DFS process with contest sims.
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That's what I've tried to do with this new tool on
@SaberSim
. It's not perfect, and I'll be continuously adjusting and improving it, but on a fundamental level, I truly believe that this *sort* of approach -- building lineups from distributions -- is the way forward for DFS.
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Instead, find a contest sim that allows you to simulate your own lineups against a separate field. That way, you can use your existing process to build a large pool of lineups you like, then use the sim to figure out which ones rate out the best in your predicted contest.
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It's crucial to find a contest sim that runs quickly and allows you to streamline your process.
Examples of how
@SaberSim
does this:
- Provides over a dozen pre-generated field lineups for every different contest type that update automatically for news
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When you accidentally tinker identical
@DraftKings
lineups and they happen to be your best of the year 🙃
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2. Separation between your lineups and the field
The basic contest sim tells you to provide a sample field, i.e. the lineups you think will be played in your contest, and then it will simulate that field against itself and rank the lineups by ROI.
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But you shouldn’t be forced to only play lineups you think your opponents will play. This makes it much harder to exploit an inefficient field, gives you less flexibility in building the lineups that you want, and reduces uniqueness and leverage.
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- Builds 5000 correlated lineups following any rules or exposures you specify in under a minute
- Allows you to run 5 different contest sims (of 100,000 sims each) at once, with contest settings auto-populated from your entries file.
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The
@SaberSim
sports betting subscription is $40 a month. I've been at this for less than two months, starting with a $100 bankroll, and have made $800. And not with a few lucky parlay hits -- it's been essentially steady profit from day 1.
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@SaberSim
2) Changed our SaberScore metric to incorporate lineup percentiles. Instead of our previous method of using actual sim scores, which are too noisy, we evaluate scoring upside of the lineup *as a whole* in our sims.
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3. Ease and efficiency
Contest sims can be slow and arduous. If you’re diversifying your entries across many contests (as you should), are you going to have to build different fields and run different contest sims for each contest? How long will this take?
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me after reading feedback from users of our beta
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Decided to stray from the usual 3-3 stack last night and it paid off! Used a
@SaberSim
line conditional and 95th percentile projections 😎
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Can this month please just never end? As always, wouldn't have happened without
@SaberSimHockey
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