Matt Malis
@MattMalis
Followers
861
Following
3K
Media
29
Statuses
297
Happy to share that my paper, “Foreign Policy Appointments”, is now online @IntOrgJournal! How do leaders select their top-level foreign policy appointees? I develop a formal model analyzing the tradeoffs involved, and present some descriptive cross-national empirics Short 🧵
5
33
172
you'd think there would be some cognitive dissonance in criticizing the leftist regime and criticizing the people fleeing the leftist regime, but decades of Latin America policy have prepared them for exactly this moment
After the polls close tomorrow night, I will impose a 100% tariff on anyone moving to Texas from NYC.
0
0
2
Great timing with this interview!
DOJ whistleblower Erez Reuveni says Emil Bove told him, "those planes need to take off no matter what, and if some court should issue an order preventing that, we may have to consider telling that court 'fuck you'." Reuveni: "It is the highest, most egregious violation of the
0
0
1
Breaking: Texas A&M University President Mark A. Welsh III will resign after more than a week of turmoil sparked by a viral video of a student confronting a professor over gender content in a children’s literature course.
texastribune.org
Calls for Welsh’s ousting intensified over his handling of a student’s complaints about gender identity discussions in a children’s literature class.
60
98
423
If anyone has a better idea for how to drive a wedge between republicans and Putin, let’s hear it. Otherwise I applaud the effort Mr Wilson 🫡
Woke Putin has run Russia into the ground with one of the highest abortion rates in the world, lowest church attendance, highest domestic violence, highest divorce rate, and highest alcohol use. This is not a model to emulate!
0
0
3
my family, friends, and loved ones: you should stop doomscrolling me (nobly):
0
0
2
the fact that this guy's videos are only getting a couple hundred likes is fully dispositive proof that elon is aware of him and is throttling his account
0
0
4
Has everyone forgotten that republicans blocked Biden’s ambassadorial appointments for a year for no intelligible reason, while sort of demanding that his entire national security team resign because of the Afghanistan withdrawal? You’re allowed to be unreasonable in opposition
"Neither House Democrats nor the people voting “no” in the Senate nor the people getting mad on Twitter have an actual strategy for getting what the base wants out of this, which is some kind of act of Congress saying that Trump and Musk need to conduct the government
0
1
5
Man how cool would it be if there was a website where I could watch sports clips that weren’t followed on autoplay by alex jones
0
0
3
And to be even more fair, it's entirely possible that the author originally had no intention of running this regression, but was coerced into it by reviewer demands. If so, reviewers need to not make these demands, and editors need to tell authors to disregard them.
3
1
52
ok to be fair, the main table does also report the bivariate regression... but the one described above just shouldn't appear in print
1
0
31
oooohhh wow you submitted 57 papers this year? should we tell everyone? should we throw a party? should we invite daron acemoglu
4
11
213
no worries, they'll find someone worse
I had excellent meetings with Senators yesterday. I appreciate their thoughtful feedback - and the incredible support of so many. While the momentum was strong, it is clear that my confirmation was unfairly becoming a distraction to the critical work of the Trump/Vance
0
0
1
it will be amazing how easy it is
Wow. Trump makes it official — Tulsi Gabbard is his nominee for Director of National Intelligence, as @JakeSherman reported earlier. This is gonna be a tough nominee for the Senate to confirm
0
0
0
Incredibly obvious that this will happen in every instance, I can write the Collins Tillis et al statements right now and save the trouble
I think people underestimate the ease with which one can retreat to the posture that the American people just handed Mr. Trump a historic victory and by virtue of this mandate it is incumbent on the Senate to confirm his picks without delay.
0
0
1
For Democrats, if Harris loses, the only silver lining is a probable blue wave in 2026 and an actual, real, functioning, normal Democratic primary for president in 2028. The best of the party will compete, talk to the press(!) and voters, and someone strong will win.
0
0
3
confounders and the outcome. So it's not an egregious error to interpret this regression as highly suggestive of a causal relationship. The major issue, IMO, is the focus on statistical significance rather than effect sizes (and the interpretability of "$100 of inflation")
0
0
2
e.g. via cross-validation 2. If the goal is causal inference, then sure, he should probably use robust SEs, and sure, there are confounders. But whatever those confounders are, it actually seems very reasonable to suppose that inflation is the primary mediator between those
2
0
0
Lots of criticisms of this tweet, some of them fair and some kinda miss the mark IMO 1. If the goal of this analysis is purely prediction, then "confounders" are irrelevant, as is "statistical significance". The relevant criterion would be a measure of predictive performance,
There are some confounders here, but the inflation thing is actually statistically significant! Each additional $100 of inflation in a state since January 2021 predicts a further 1.6 swing against Harris in our polling average vs. the Biden-Trump margin in 2020.
1
0
1
This is the most viscerally uncomfortable I’ve ever felt from a political speech, by a wide margin
At the Turning Point rally for Trump, Tucker Carlson says that Trump needs to win because Americans who are out of line need a president who is going to be like a tough disciplinarian dad. “There has to be a point at which dad comes home….and he's pissed. Dad is pissed. He's
0
0
1