Market Check
@MarketCheck1
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Independent grain marketing agency, advisory and managed program provider representing Australian grain growers
Sydney, New South Wales
Joined May 2013
Who is Market Check? .... To discuss this year's grain marketing strategies or our membership options, please give us a call. Eastern Aus - (02) 9499 4199 SA/WA - (08) 7093 7870
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From April to Sept, the ASX Jan-26 contract lost ~$50/t (in line with offshore mkts falling). After bottoming in Sept at ~$310/t, prices are ~$10-15/t off the lows. Interestingly, ASX has only traded a ~$5/t range since harvest begun, with production set to be well above avg
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The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) today increased its total crop production estimate to 26.62mt – up from 25.46mt in October. The November crop report said it was looking fairly certain 2025 would be a record year for WA, with the latest estimates
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Happy National Agriculture Day! Today we celebrate farmers who feed & fuel our future. From early mornings to late-nights, your resilience & innovation keep Aus moving. We’ve stood by growers for >30yrs, helping them navigate markets & manage risk. Here's to another 30yrs!🇦🇺
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🌾📈Barley prices are rallying in Aus, despite the record crop hitting the bins. After a persistent sell off during the season, prices have rebounded and kept rallying ever since. A tight global market, Chinese demand and a lack of grower selling is pushing prices higher.
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Our pulse specialist Richie talking about the lentil market 👏 https://t.co/U2ta1MtdTJ via @theweeklytimes
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Lentil prices are considerably lower year-on-year. Growers are wondering whether to hold #lentils or sell into the weaker market. While history is only guide, it's good to know where prices stack up against prev. years.👇👇 Talk to our Advisory Team about lentil strategy📞
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Peak months for Aus grain/oilseed exports are Dec to May. New crop hits the bins in Nov/Dec, before stocks get tighter from June onwards which slows exports. Nth Hemisphere exports also lift around the same time. Aus is an important exporter in the first half of each year.🌾
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We were proud to sponsor Race 1 Market Check Fernleigh Class 3 Trophy Race at Come By Chance Races back in September. Our very own Justin Stewart was on hand to present the trophy to the winning connections of Ilikesooboogie 👏🏇
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📢 2024-25 exports are complete! Barley/canola exports were strong to start, with #wheat really picking up the pace from July forward. NSW hit a Jul-Sep record 1.97MMT of wheat, reducing a big carry-in to this harvest. WA had its 3rd biggest Jul-Sep. Bring on 25-26!🌾🚢
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The barley program to China was a success, however we can't say the same about 🇦🇺 24-25 wheat exports to China. The 5yr avg per season is ~4.2MMT, whereas 24-25 was a scratch over 1.1MMT. Luckily Indo, record volume to Philli, Thailand & countries in Africa took up the slack
25-26 season exports are in, with China buying a near record amount of barley from 🇦🇺. The finally tally was a shade over 6MMT out of a total export program of 8.34MMT. This means 72% of barley exports went to 🇨🇳. Will they repeat it this season with Aus expecting a record crop?
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25-26 season exports are in, with China buying a near record amount of barley from 🇦🇺. The finally tally was a shade over 6MMT out of a total export program of 8.34MMT. This means 72% of barley exports went to 🇨🇳. Will they repeat it this season with Aus expecting a record crop?
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Australian #canola prices are rising, with basis vs MATIF strengthening even as harvest ramps up (albeit a dead cat bounce in SA). We typically see our relative value weaken as growers hit the market. Buyers have been enthusiastic while grower selling still remains subdued.
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Australian wheat basis has been strong lately (looking at ASX Jan-26 vs MATIF & CBOT), as a weak offshore market combined with a tough Australian spring spring & reluctant grower seller. CBOT basis has weakened recently as US prices rally independently of other world markets.
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October was a mixed month for rainfall fortunes. Southern NSW unfortunately copped the worst of it, with really no rainfall to help the crops get home. Big divergence vs @BOM_au October earlier predictions.
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Welcome Tyler Clement as a Junior Commodity Advisor, based in our Adelaide office. Originally from🇬🇧, Tyler travelled 🇦🇺before settling in Ade. Prior to MC, he worked for a firm in SA, gaining insights into grain mkts & supporting grower clients. Welcome to our 3 new starters!
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📢 We’re excited to welcome Charlie McCaskie as a Junior Commodity Advisor in our Wagga office! Hailing from Wyalong, Charlie is a Riverina local. He’s about to complete a Bachelor of Ag Business Management at CSU. We’ve got one more addition to introduce, so stay tuned!👀
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📢Market Check is growing! Welcome Tom Kourambas who joins us as a Senior Commodity Advisor. Tom will be establishing our 1st office in Melbourne! Tom has a strong background in ag after trading dairy overseas before returning home in 2024 to focus on domestic grain markets.
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Rainfall for the past 7 days (to 9am yesterday) was excellent for many parts of VIC/SA (not as strong in SNSW). It's too late for lots of crops and a punish for hay, but many crops will still benefit from this late rainfall. Forecasts showing more to come 🌦️🌾
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