Forward Real Yields approaching GFC levels

On annualized basis, at current effective tariff rate, there is a revenue stream of ~$275 billion. If that amount is applied to reduce long-term bond issuance, the term premium could materially decline. And that is more likely to move mortgage rates down.

RT @SpencerHakimian: Food prices are completely out of control again.

The SPAC Index is Back

Meme volatility hitting a fever pitch

RT @fs_insight: 🧮 2Q25 Earnings Update (19% of S&P 500):.✔️ 97 companies have reported.✔️ 85% beating estimates (median beat: +4%).✔️ 15% m….

The US-Japan trade deal is priced in with a rising chance of a hike in September and a stronger Yen @lisaabramowicz1 @annmarie @bsurveillance

"I got the power" (90s song)

The economy of expectations and stock prices

The tangible tariffs

RT @zerohedge: Looks like the biggest gamma squeeze in history

The Euro is strong, but the underlying German economy is weak. What gives?

When Poly market odds and the yield curve are perfectly aligned

Despite a bull market, wealthy, affluent investors remain underweight stocks

When Fed expectations are not driven by long-term inflation

RT @MikeZaccardi: “Short US dollar” is the most crowded trade for the 1st time in FMS history

RT @CNBCFastMoney: Have markets already priced in Jerome Powell's departure from the Federal Reserve?. FedWatch's Ben Emons (@Marcomadness2….

RT @zerohedge: This is a big housing problem: US home construction pipeline is hopelessly clogged up, with completions crashing to 3 year l….

RT @zerohedge: This is insanity: retail 0DTE option trading is about to hit two-thirds of all daily option volumes. The market is literall….

Here is June PPI tariff pass through by category: annualized change from May to June by category. Goods are leading but there was also pass through in services