Mallard Research
@MallardResearch
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Looking for intrinsic value. Check out my substack for deep dives on $CARD.L & $MCB.L. Not investment advice.
Joined April 2024
Sato Food Industries - $2824.T . P/(NCAV+IS): 59%.P/BV: 47%.Negative EV.
New writeup out now! This time, I cover a stable & profitable Japanese net-net with a 150% of market cap covered by cash & securities. I expect profitability to improve from here, driving returns. TSE reforms are the cherry on top! 🇯🇵. Link in comments/bio
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Cards Direct keeps expanding, aiming for 100 stores by year-end. Their latest opening in Hinckley is right across from a Card Factory store on Clintons’ old turf. Clintons’ retreat was a tailwind, but rising price competition could pressure Card Factory’s margins. $CARD.L #CARD
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As I have very little time for investment research at the moment I made $NAVF my largest position. I think with a high degree of certainty they will outperform a global index ETF. Not investment advice.
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I would still prefer they focus on their core business.
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A chart for Card Factory $CARD.L holders. The 2021 online boom seemingly left Funky Pigeon bloated. If Card Factory can help the bird shed some weight and realise synergies, there’s upside. #CARD
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Not in Japan yet.
High ROIC, recurring revenue companies sure feel like a crowded trade. The opportunity is where management is driving a significant improvement in profitability, especially off a low base.
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*10 years later*. Son: Dad why did we move to Australia?. Me: A fintwit poll told me.
Not investment related. I'm curious, where would the smart folks of FinTwit rather live? Assuming you only had these 3 to choose from and moving was not an issue. If you don't mind, share why in the replies or dms.
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Not investment related. I'm curious, where would the smart folks of FinTwit rather live? Assuming you only had these 3 to choose from and moving was not an issue. If you don't mind, share why in the replies or dms.
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Really enjoyed this deep dive.
$CNK $MCS $CGX.TO $IMAX $RDI.Funny timing for this given Trump's latest missive, but I think movie theatres and adjacent service providers are a really attractive pocket of value right now. Single stock deep dive will follow in the coming days, but in this piece I explore the
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RT @TeddyOkuyama: Since this is gaining traction, let me show exactly what I prompted and what I got. Prompt: "Look up materials on エスケーエレク….
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Hikari Tsushin has increased their positions slightly to just over 10%. Great news. Stock price up ~14% since publication. Disc: Not investment advice.
New writeup out now! This time, I cover a stable & profitable Japanese net-net with a 150% of market cap covered by cash & securities. I expect profitability to improve from here, driving returns. TSE reforms are the cherry on top! 🇯🇵. Link in comments/bio
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Core business inline with my expectations. But some red flags in the 'growth' initiatives. Middle East franchised stores closing. Acquisitions and dividends financed by debt 🚩. Good to see them closing GettingPersonal and focusing on custom cards/gifts. $CARD.L #CARD
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Management really needs to provide clarity on the acquisition strategy. It seems very haphazard geographically and reminds me of $IGR.L.
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Mix performance and new store openings have helped offset some of the pressures this year, I expect. With strong operating leverage, any growth flows straight to the bottom line. But how much is left from SKU optimisation and >1,100 stores?.
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Hard to believe it’s been over a year. Looking ahead to tomorrow’s earnings. Hopefully cost risks are better priced in and management more cautious. Hard to be too optimistic with a further £14m PBT hit. Disc: Small position. $CARD.L #CARD.
My first Substack report is out, I hope you find it useful and challenging. Its a very long read, diving deep into Card Factory, its competitors, cards, valuation and risks. Before writing this report $CARD.L was my highest conviction idea.
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Great read as usual for those interested in Japan. A few more 'quality' net-net's have Hikari Tsushin on the shareholder register. This includes Sato Food Industries which I wrote about previously.
Now imagine this: You're a Salaryman in the 90's in Tokyo. You had to report your whereabouts to your manager. One of many during the day. Your manager handles multiple calls, so he puts you on hold. While you wait, you repeatedly chant the company motto into the phone. OUT
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Betting against luxury is like betting against capitalism. As long as people get richer it will do well.
We all know $LVMH shat the bed yesterday — but you won’t find many industries with steadier growth than luxury . The trick is getting confidence around durability and not overpaying
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Passed on Japanese net-net, TVE Co $6466.T:.✅ 150%+ mkt cap in cash & securities.✅ Mission-critical valves for nuclear reactors.🚩 New factory consumes 50%+ of cash.🚩 Record-low backlog despite reactor restarts.Quality business at dirt-cheap price but too much execution risk.
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$CARD.L briefly down 10% at open is insane. Retail panicking?.
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After 2 months of digging into Japanese net-nets, nothing feels cheap yet – at least not in the US. Might have fried my brain 😅.
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Now trading at 0.75 P/BV, and 0.77 P/NCAV with a 120% of market cap covered by cash & securities -- despite improving operating profits. Only in Japan.
So many weird Japanese small caps. Zappallas (TYO 3770) for example is a $40m mcap Fortune Telling as a Service company. No joke. Uber model for fortune telling + a physical store! Shutting down unprofitable U.S. biz and buying back stock. Turnaround working 10x op inc core biz
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