Mike Smithson
@MSmithsonPB
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Election analyst and gambler who's been running his award winning blog since 2004. Pic is of grandad Charles campaigning in Lancashire in late 1920s
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Joined February 2009
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Lord Heseltine's comment on the Brexit deal -
"We must welcome the news that Brexit does not end in the chaos of no deal, but only with the sense of relief of a condemned man informed that his execution has been commuted to a life sentence."
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How the vote went in Moggsy own ward in NE Somerset
LD 67%
CON 28%
LAB 5%
The turnout was 54%
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Latest YouGov has 84% of LAB voters saying Brexit was wrong
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From Mail on Sunday. Some of the comments that UKIP leader's girlfriend is said to have made about Meghan Markle
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Tories drop to third place amongst Graduates -
@IpsosNewsPolls
LAB 40%
LDs 25%
CON 20%
GRN 8%
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Staggering. Votes shares in London at GE17
LAB 54.5%
CON 33.2%
LD 8.8%
GRN 1.8%
UKIP 1.3%
LAB exceeded all the polls in the capital
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Dominic Raab, the Kent MP who didn't realise that Dover was a major port, now 2nd favourite on Betfair to succeed TMay. Favourite remains the man who Tweeted he'd voted on Thursday when there were no elections in his area
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What CON MPs perhaps don't realise is that their continued support for Johnson will be used mercilessly against them by their opponents at the general election
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Latest NatCen survey overseen by Prof John Curtice has
Remain 59%
Leave 41%
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From latest Opinium -
Voting intention in the seats won by CON at GE2019
CON 37%
LAB 50%
LD 8%
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Latest YouGov Brexit tracker LAB VOTERS ONLY
"In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?"
Right 20%
Wrong 76%
DK 14%
I think this is a record high for LAB voters
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Latest
@YouGov
Brexit tracker finds 16% of those who voted Leave now say Brexti was WRONG
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Big poll collapse for Tories from YouGov
CON 38% -6
LAB 34% +3
LD 9% +1
GRN 8% +2
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Parris is right - without Corbyn Labour would be crushing the Tories
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Brexit WRONG moves to 10% lead in latest
@YouGov
Brexit tracker.
Brexit right 39% (-1)
Brecit wrong 49%+1
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The message I'm getting from a close LAB-CON marginal and a close CON-LD one is that there's a marked increase in young people to turning out to vote compared with same time period at GE2017
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Ex-MP Dr Sarah Woolaston might be a good Lib Dem pick for the Tiverton and Honiton by-election
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Starmer takes 14% lead over Johnson in latest net approval ratings from Opinium. He's on net PLUS 24% - Johnson is on net PLUS 10%.
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Based on 30 minutes at polling station in marginal Bedford more young people than normal coming out to vote
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From YouGov. In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?
Right 39%
Wrong 48%
DK 13%
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In a council by-election in Port Talbot tonight the Tory candidate polled just FOUR votes
Jones (Ind): 268
Plaid Cymru: 73
Labour: 60
Joshua (Ind): 45
Paul (Ind): 14
Conservative: 4
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Today's 46% LAB share in the latest YouGov Times poll is the biggest figure that the firm has ever recorded for the party
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As the former head of corporate PR for the BBC can I say that today's developments over Lineker undermine the very foundation of public service broadcasting.
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My nomination, against some stiff competition, for the most ignorant Tweet of 2017
India in 1947 had rather less difficulty gaining its independence than we are having in 2017 leaving the Brussels empire. Time for Boris to go the full Gandhi.
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INCYMI This from Women against UKIP is causing much amusement in Stoke
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What the Tracy Ullman Corbyn sketch row has shown is that many of his followers view him more as a spiritual leader than a party politician. This isn't healthy
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YouGov poll of Conservative party members finds 67% saying the NHS has enough money already and should use its resources more efficiently. These are the people who are choosing the next PM
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By 63% to 18% LAB voters tell YouGov that there should be public say on final Brexit deal
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Notice how those most opposed to Starmer are not Tories but Corbyn cultists. He was the man of course who led LAB to its worst general election outcome since 1935.
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New YouGov poll finds that LAB would drop to behind the LDs if the party helps the Tories to pass Brexit
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Just watched Starmer v Johnson at PMQs and that must ranks amongst the worst performances yet by the PM.
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If Johnson’s lockdown breaches had been at the same level as Starmer's Durham curry then there is some sense in the Tory strategy. But there isn't and this will come back to bite them
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I see TMay is standing in for Amber Rudd in tonight's Question Time special
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More than 70 CON MPs would lose their seats if tonight's YouGov poll was repeated at the General Election. Starmer would be waiting for the call from the Palace
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If LAB had demanded that Jared O'Mara quit his Sheffield Hallam seat then its calls for the seven to resign and have by-elections would carry more weight.
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New polling from Opinium finds 47% of LAB Remain voters saying they would switch parties if they thought it would stop Brexit
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Charts from Mail on Sunday Survation poll on latest views on BREXIT
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UKIP has zero MPs and on Thursday dropped from 147 seats last time to just one. The BBC has got to stop UKIPs special status
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Just 13% according to new Ipsos-MORI poll believe the stated reason for BJohnson's prorouging of the Commons. A whopping 70% don't.
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I like this spoof English Heritage plaque which is doing the rounds in Stoke Central
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Let us not forget reason we are having the election. The Tories were in danger of losing their majority. BREXIT being used as excuse.
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REMAIN takes 8% lead in Brexit referendum voting intention from Survation
EU Referendum Voting Intention
Remain 54%
Leave 46% excl DKs
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Latest Opinium approval ratings have Johnson on a net MINUS 6% and Starmer on PLUS 21%
So the LAB leader has a net lead of 27%
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WRONG to Leave reaches biggest lead yet in the YouGov Brexit tracker
Right to Leave - 38%
Wrong to Leave - 50%
DK 12%
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Keir Starmer’s net 26%+ Opinium approval rating is the best for any LAB leader since before the 2003 invasion of Iraq
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Remember what the officially designated Leave campaign (run by Dominic Cummings) was saying in the lead up to the June 23rd 2016 referendum
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57% of UK adults surveyed by Opinium say it would have been better not to have had a public vote in June 2016.
This compares with 29% of voters who believe it was right to hold the referendum
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LAB voter split in latest YouGov Brexit tracker
Right to leave 21%
Wrong to leave 72%
DK 7%
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With just four days to till the UK departs the latest YouGov Brexit tracker (Jan 26th) has:
40% Brexit Right
47% Brexit Wrong
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More gloomy poll news for Johnson from Savanta ComRes. Starmer easily beating him on several measures
Honesty (41% vs 22%), Integrity (42% vs 23%), Openness (40% vs 25%) Accountability (41% vs 27%).
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On April 24 TMay had a net 69% lead over Corbyn in YouGov's "well/badly" ratings. Today Corbyn is a net 3% ahead. Lynton...?
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At exactly this stage before GE2017 these were the CON leads in main polls
ICM: 19%
Panelbase: 17%
YouGov: 19%
Opinium: 16%
Kantar: 24%
ORB: 16%
Actual in general election: 2.5%
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Corbyn and Milne's big gamble: Ignoring the LAB voters who think Brexit was wrong. How LAB voters view Brexit from YouGov
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What Trump said about electoral college system when thought Romney had got most votes in 2012.
@BrendanReichs
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Survation MoS poll showing a 16 point lead for a second Brexit referendum is the first time any pollster has recorded backing
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By 58% to 24% LAB voters in latest YouGov poll want a second referendum
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The big flaw in the Cummings "people versus parliament" strategy is that most voters think Brexit was wrong
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Latrest
@OpiniumResearch
poll: If asked to choose between A Labour government led by Keir Starmer or a Conservative government led by Boris Johnson
43% said LAB/Starmer
34% said CON/Johnson
14% of GE2009 CON voters said LAB/Starmer
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A troubling Ipsos-MORI poll finding for Johnson.
52% think he should resign if he’s issued with a fixed penalty notice for breaking COVID rules. 22% are opposed.
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By 68% to 14% LAB voters in latest
@OpiniumResearch
poll say Starmer should remain as leader. That's nearly 5 to one.
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Why is the BBC NOT covering the most sensational by-election in decades
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Let us remember that the person most responsible for the CON landslide at GE2019 was Corbyn. The polling, Opinium, shows that 45% of former LAB voters switched to the Tories was because of Corbyn.
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As the UK enters a critical week let's remind ourselves what the officially recognised leave campaign was saying in the lead up to the June 23rd 2016 referendum. Vote Leave, of course, was led by Johnson and Cummings
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Farage decides to take a break from the public eye
BREAKING
Watch my new Prime Time evening show on GB News from next week.
Tune into “Farage” Mon - Thurs at 7pm.
I will not be taking the knee on this show!
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Amber Rudd, who represented CON in last night's leaders' debate, is set to lose her Hastings & Rye seat according to YouGov data
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In tonight's Opinium poll LAB has a 10% lead in those seats gained by the Tories at GE2019
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Farage's Brexit party's 34% poll share from YouGov and Opinium is still lower than the peak UKIP poll rating of 38% in the 2014 Euro elections. The party ended up with 27% of the votes.
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In March Opinium had the Tories with a 26% lead over LAB. Tonight that has been reduced to zero.
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Adonis appears to be making a much better fist of attacking the government than the official opposition under Corbyn
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YouGov analysis of GE17 finds the more educated people were the less likely they'd vote for TMay's Tories
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There should be no general election until it's been resolved whether CON win in 2015 was lawful. TMay trying to brush this under carpet
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New YouGov poll has LAB Lead up to 8%. Yesterday it was 4%
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LAB extends lead by 4% with YouGov
LAB: 38% (+2)
CON: 33% (-2)
LDM: 12% (+2)
GRN: 6% (-2)
SNP: 4% (-1)
Lasy week it was just 1%
Changes w/ 6 May
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The Corbyn chose not to be at the march says a lot about his political judgment
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A bit unfortunate for Salmond that the F was on the train door. Via
@Jon_Hodgkins
http://t.co/LNc4dBC73o
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YouGov has Starmer rated as best PM
Starmer 29 (+4)
Johnson 27 (-4)
Not sure 41 (-)
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LATEST net Opinium approval ratings for main party leaders from GE2017 LAB voters
Johnson MINUS 46
Corbyn MINUS 6
Swinson PLUS 4
Farage MINUS 38
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In its entire history LAB has only ever secured 5 sustainable working majorities - three of them when led by Blair man you despise
Tony Blair: that eternal reminder you can help invade a country, with hundreds of thousands of deaths, millions of displaced and injured and the rise of fanatical groups, then go and work for murderous dictators, and still be treated as a statesman by the British media.
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Wrong to Leave EU takes its biggest lead yet, 5 points, in YouGov's Referendum tracker
Wrong 47%
Right 42%
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Surely the logic of the current political situation calls for a government of national unity - under
@YvetteCooperMP
perhaps
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Boris Johnson’s approval rating as prime minister with Opinium has reached net -18% (32% approve, 50% disapprove), the lowest since the 2019 general election.
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Just two month to go before end of transition period and those thinking Brexit was "right" drops to record low with
@YouGov
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New
@OpiniumResearch
has latest net approval ratings
Johnson: -31 (+4)
Starmer: +4 (+6) - highest since April
So Starmer leads Johnson with a 35% margin
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In just six weeks the Tories have moved from a 5% lead with Opinium to being 9% behind
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By 50% to 34% those polled by Survation for MoS say they want a second referendum on the final deal
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So YouGov has CON lead at 11% while with Survation it is 1%
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Johnson's Tories lose their poll lead for the first time since GE2010
Opinium has
CON: 40% (-2)
LAB: 40% (+1)
LDEM: 6% (+1)
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A massive problem for the government appears to be that there has been a shit in opinion since 2016.
British Social Attitudes Survey author Prof John Curtice: its results, corroborated by polls “is enough to raise doubts about whether, two and half years after the original ballot, leaving the EU necessarily continues to represent the view of a majority of the British public”
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Just 34% of voters back a no deal Brexit according to new BMG poll for the Indy. 49% oppose
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57% of voters in today's S Times YouGov poll say Bojo would make a "Bad PM" - the highest negative figure of all senior Tories in survey
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Latest YouGov "Was it right or wrong to vote to leave EU?"
Current LAB voters
Right 16%
Wrong 75%
DK 14%
The leadership out of line
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